Appendix 3 - Baseline
Introduction
This appendix presents baseline information collated to inform the SEA. It builds from baseline information presented in the SEA scoping report and aims to respond to the following questions for each of the SEA topics considered:
- What is the current state of the environment? Are there any environmental problems relevant to the plan?
- What is the likely evolution of the state of the environment without the implementation of the plan?
- What are the environmental protection objectives relevant to the plan?
Given the strategic nature of the ICP, baseline data reflect the main type of environmental effects anticipated. Its geographical scope is limited to Scotland.
Climatic factors are cross cutting and closely related to a number of other SEA topics. Although SEA objectives and assessment guide questions covering climatic factors have been integrated in other relevant SEA topics to avoid duplication and streamline the assessment, baseline information is separately presented, justifying its inter-relationship with other SEA topics.
Climatic Factors
Baseline
United Nations indicate that there is a direct link between the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere and the average global temperature, and that since the 1800s, human activities, particularly those contributing to GHG emissions, have been the main driver of climate change. Scottish Transport Statistics 2023 indicate that transport, including international shipping and aviation, accounted for 12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2021, representing approximately 28% of Scotland’s GHG emissions (including 2% from ferries).
The Independent Assessment used to inform the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) indicates that over the last few decades Scotland has experienced a warming trend, shifting rainfall patterns, and rising sea levels, and that there are a number of risks from climate change affecting natural and human assets, of which 32 are considered to require more action. The Transport Scotland Approach to Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience highlights key climate change risks affecting Scotland’s transport system, such as increases in the intensity and frequency of severe and extreme weather events and sea level rise which could damage port infrastructure and disrupt ferry services.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections for Scotland anticipates that without the influence of mitigation policies, and driven by economic and population growth, there would be a relatively small (c. 5%) increase in total emissions between 2019 and 2045, as illustrated in Figure 3-1 - Total GHG emissions under a scenario in which no mitigation policies are implemented, including within the transport sector.
Climate Projections for Scotland indicate that changes in climate already experienced are projected to continue and intensify, including greater extremes in temperature and precipitation.
Coastal and marine environments offer opportunities to mitigate for climate change impacts, including through habitats that absorb and store carbon, and that protect against erosion and flood risks, and through the adoption of technologies that can reduce GHG emissions.
Environmental Protection Objectives
The Update to the Climate Change Plan (2018 – 2032) sets the Scottish Government’s objective to reduce emissions of all GHGs to net-zero by 2045. It also includes a commitment for 30% of Scottish Government owned ferries to be low emission by 2032, and for low emission solutions to be widely adopted at Scottish ports by 2032.
The Scottish National Adaptation Plan (2024 – 2029) sets the Scottish Government’s vision for a resilient, inclusive and well-adapted Scotland as the climate continues to change. This includes enhancing the ferry fleet’s resilience and reliability, including in response to changing weather conditions.
NPF4 calls for the recognition of global climate emergency as a priority in all plans and decisions.
Inter-relationship with other SEA topics
Climatic factors, air quality and human health are inherently linked. For instance, extreme weather events, such as heat waves, can negatively impact air quality by creating areas of high pressure and stagnant air that concentrates air pollutants, affecting human health. At the same time air pollutants, such as GHGs, are the main contributors to climate change.
Climatic factors can affect soils and sediments through physical interaction, such as erosion and waterlogging caused by changes in rainfall patterns or sea storm events, which can also impact any heritage assets contained within such soils and sediments. At the same time, carbon-rich soils and sediments act as a sink for CO2, and therefore their conservation allows these to maintain their sequestration function.
Climatic factors can also affect the water environment through changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, that can change the physical and chemical properties, and therefore the quality, of water environments, and biodiversity and heritage assets within these. Extreme weather events can also increase flooding risks, affecting material assets, including transport infrastructure, heritage assets, and human receptors vulnerable to these. At the same time, material assets, such as construction materials, have embodied carbon emissions, that will be released during their extraction, fabrication, or transport.
Climatic factors can also affect biodiversity, as global warming can change patterns of lifecycle events, such as migration timing, and cause habitat and species loss through desertification of vegetated areas, acidification of water environments, or creating pathways for the introduction and spread of non-native invasive species. Impacts on natural resources that form part of landscapes can therefore also alter the value and perception of these.
Air Quality
Baseline
The Air Pollutant Inventory for Scotland (2022) reports that emissions of priority air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO2), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), ground-level ozone (O3) and ammonia (NH3) have gradually reduced over the years, see Figure 3-2 - Scotland normalised trends for all pollutants. The overall decline observed in transport-related emissions, mainly NOx, PM10 and PM2.5, has partly been attributed to reductions in road transport emissions. However, in 2022, the transport sector was still considered to account for a considerable proportion of these pollutant emissions.
The Cleaner Air for Scotland 2 (CAFS 2) further notes that road transport in urban areas remains the significant contributor to poor air quality, with air quality standards for human and environmental health not being met in some locations. This is reflected in the designation of Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA), which are declared where air quality objectives are not met. Based on data from the Scottish Government’s website on air quality in Scotland, As of December 2024, a total of 21 AQMAs were in place in Scotland, most of which relate to localised pollution hotspots within urban centres.
The Decarbonisation of Scottish Maritime Transport Study notes that shipping is a major contributor of air pollution, including carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, NOx, sulphur oxides (SOx), PM and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs).
Baseline Evolution and Trends
As in the case of GHG emissions, without the influence of mitigation policies, and driven by economic and population growth, it would be reasonable to assume that projections in the emissions of other air pollutants from the transport sector would also be anticipated to experience a slight increase up to 2045.
Environmental Protection Objectives
Air quality objectives aim to reduce emissions which are potentially harmful to health and the environment.
CAFS 2 calls for the application of a sustainable travel hierarchy, in line with NTS, that promotes a reduction in travel needs and the effective management of demand; and the adoption of a sustainable investment hierarchy, supporting strategic investments in sustainable, smart and cleaner transport options; which will contribute to complying with air quality limit values. NPF4 requires the minimisation of emissions from new development and that air pollution is taken into account in development planning and management.
Noise
Baseline
The Transportation Noise Action Plan (TNAP) 2019-2023 notes that transport noise, i.e. from road transport, aircraft and railways, is the most common form of noise, with road responsible for approximately 90% of transport noise. The TNAP considers mapping and action planning for major roads (with more than three million vehicle passages a year) and major railways (with more than thirty thousand train passages per year), which are present within Scottish mainland, as illustrated in Figure 3-3 -Scotland’s Noise Map of major roads (left) and railway (right) averaged across the day, evening, and night.
Although the TNAP does not make specific reference to ports and harbours, some of these major roads and railways have links with ports and harbours in which ferry services are offered (e.g. Inverness, Aberdeen, etc).
The UK Marine Strategy notes that, at present, there is a lack of knowledge of the impacts of anthropogenic sound in the marine environment. The Scotland’s Marine Atlas states that shipping and offshore construction (which could include construction activities at port locations) are among the primary sources of underwater noise in Scotland, and have potential to cause displacement and damage to marine biodiversity.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
Within a context of population and economic growth that increases transport and maritime activity, it is reasonable to anticipate a future increase in noise generation, both airborne and underwater.
Environmental Protection Objectives
There are no fixed noise level targets in Scotland. The TNAP aims to ensure noise management is incorporated into all transport-related activities, and that noise levels are managed at Noise Management Areas (NMAs), preserving environmental noise quality where this is good.
The Cleaner Air for Scotland 2 (CAFS 2) calls for noise action plans developed by local authorities to be closely aligned with air quality action plans to deliver co-benefits. NPF4 ensures that noise pollution is taken into account in development planning and management.
The UK Marine Strategy aims to manage loud, low and mid frequency impulsive sounds and continuous low frequency sounds introduced into the marine environment to the extent that they do not have adverse effects on marine ecosystems and animals at the population level.
Soil/ Sediment
Baseline
The national soils and soil properties map for Scotland, see Figure 3-4 - Soils of Scotland, shows the diverse range of soils present in Scotland, with peaty gleys dominance along the north- northwest coast, humus-iron rich soils around the north-northeast coast, a great peaty podzols presence inland and a combination of primarily mineral gleys and brown earths in the south.
According to NatureScot, Scotland’s geology and sediment formed from deposits in the Quaternary Period and the sediments around Scotland are mostly sandy or gravelly. Approximately 70% of the Scottish coastline is classified as hard coast, 29% as soft coast and less than 1% is considered artificial e.g. harbours and seawalls. Highly exposed to climate change due to the effects of sea level rising and coastal erosion, 75% of Scottish coastline is considered broadly stable, 12% is erosional and 8% is accretional.
The risks to Scotland’s soils scoping report identifies erosion and compaction as the main risks to soils (also affecting the wider environment), which, among other causes, can be caused by transport infrastructure (e.g. compaction of soils beneath roads, erosion and changes to sediment transportation around fixed port infrastructure, etc). Other risks include those associated with water retention, draught resistance and flooding, soil sealing, soil-borne disease and pests, landfilling of waste soil, application of waste to land, poorly managed sequestration, and contamination.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
Scotland’s soils will continue to face pressure from climate change effects, including temperature changes, leading to drying out, cracking and subsequent erosion; degradation of peatlands; and increased run-off, flooding and landslides, leading to soil loss and degradation.
Environmental Protection Objectives
NPF4 calls for the protection of carbon-rich soils, restoration of peatlands and reduction of soil disturbance from development.
Water Environment (fresh and marine)
Baseline
According to Scotland’s Environment, Scotland’s freshwater environment comprises over 125,000 km of rivers and streams, 220 km of canals, and 30,000 freshwater lochs. Scotland’s marine environment comprises approximately 790 islands, a total of 18,000 km of coastline and approximately 462,000 km2 of marine waters (within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)).
The SEPA’s Water Classification Hub indicates that 64% of Scotland’s water environment, including inshore groundwater and surface water bodies, and transitional and coastal water bodies (up to the territorial sea limit), was rated as good or better condition in 2023, see Figure 3-5 - SEPA Scottish Water Classification Hub Map. Most coastal water bodies achieved good and high status, with only a few exceptions, including the Middle Forth Estuary (moderate ecological potential), the Solway Estuary (moderate), Irvine Bay (moderate) or Leith Docks to Port Seton (poor ecological potential) due to ecological and hydro-morphological criteria.
The Clean seas indicator reports that, in 2020, 79% of contaminant assessments in Scottish marine waters showed concentrations unlikely to harm marine organisms.
Scotland’s reported assessments are in line with the wider UK Marine Strategy, which noted that Good Environmental Status (GES) in relation to hydrographical conditions, contaminants and eutrophication was largely achieved in 2018, with most failures related to eutrophication problems restricted to estuarine and harbour waters with limited water circulation, and highly persistent legacy chemicals such as Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in biota and coastal sediments, often close to polluted sources. Whilst a number of small oil spills, including from shipping activities, have also been reported, there have been no major significant acute pollution events where habitats and species have been affected at a sub-regional level. On the other hand, marine litter has been reported to be present in significant amounts, with UK waters failing to achieve GES in relation to this descriptor. The Marine Litter Strategy for Scotland further notes that whilst most of marine litter in mainland Scotland originates from land-based sources, the Scottish islands also receive marine litter from the Atlantic Ocean and maritime industries, including shipping.
The National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) shows a number of Potentially Vulnerable Areas (PVAs), where highest flood risk exists now or is likely to occur in the future, located along the coast in mainland Scotland, as well as in the islands.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
Scotland’s water environment will continue to face pressure from climate change effects, including changes in natural variations affecting water supply and circulation, as well as water quality, and increasing the frequency and severity of droughts and flooding.
Given past trends for contaminant concentrations, the UK Marine Strategy, anticipates these to continue reducing over time.
Environmental Protection Objectives
Scotland’s River Basin Management Plan (RBMP) aims to protect and improve the water environment, including coastal waters, and defines objectives in relation to water quality, resources, fish migration and physical condition. The UK Marine Strategy aims to achieve / maintain GES in relation to eutrophication, hydrographical conditions, contaminants (in water, sediment and biota) and marine litter, among other water quality descriptors. NPF4 calls for the strengthening of resilience to flood risk, and for the efficient / sustainable use of water resources.
Biodiversity
Baseline
Almost 18% of Scotland’s land surface is protected specifically for nature, and 37% of Scotland’s marine environment now forms part of the Scottish Marine Protected Area (MPA) network. However, as of March 2023, NatureScot reports that only 65% of natural features on protected sites (excluding marine sites beyond territorial waters) are classed as being in favourable condition, with a further 11% classed as unfavourable but recovering. The Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045 further reports that Scotland has retained just over half of its historic land-based biodiversity, and that there have been declines on measurements of natural capital (15% since 1950), on abundance of terrestrial and freshwater species (24% since 1994) and on marine abundance, see Figure 3-6 - Terrestrial and marine species indicator. In the marine realm, out of 15 components in the UK Marine Strategy, 11 had not achieved GES by 2020, and Scotland’s Marine Assessment 2020 highlighted declines in biogenic habitats and species such as Atlantic salmon.
There are a number of pressures affecting Scotland’s biodiversity, including urbanisation and associated developments, such as transport infrastructure, changes in land use, over-exploitation and habitat fragmentation. Invasive non-native species are also considered a major threat to biodiversity, colonising, displacing smothering, competing with and disrupting native species and habitats. Scotland’s Marine Assessment 2020 reported that no Scottish marine regions are confirmed free of non-native species, and that one of the pathways for their introduction includes ballast water transfer during shipping activities.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
NatureScot indicates that 30% of Scotland’s biodiversity is already at risk from climate change and without mitigation this would continue to worsen to 50% by 2050. Scotland’s Marine Assessment 2020 also highlights the increasing impacts of climate change and ocean acidification, which have a direct impact on marine habitats and species.
Environmental Protection Objectives
Although statutory targets for natural restoration are yet to be adopted, the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045 aims for Scotland to be Nature Positive by 2030 and to have restored and regenerated biodiversity across the country by 2045
NPF4 calls for the protection and enhancement of biodiversity, including through strengthened nature networks and nature-based solutions.
Cultural Heritage
Baseline
Scotland has a rich, diverse and extensive historic environment. Our Place, Our Future (OPOF), the Strategy for Scotland’s Historic Environment, reports that, as of March 2023, Scotland’s historic environment is supported by more than 58,000 designations, covering both cultural and natural heritage, yet 95% of Scotland’s historic environment remains undesignated, particularly in the marine environment.
The Historic Environment Policy for Scotland notes a number of challenges that can have an impact on the historic environment and its assets, such as land use changes (which can determine transport infrastructure needs), climate change (which can expose assets to conditions that they were not designed to cope with) or societal change (regarding how societies value and interact with the historic environment). The historic environment around the coasts and seas of Scotland is particularly vulnerable to a wide range of natural processes, marine activities and developments, particularly those causing seabed disturbance and changes to local sediment supply as they can cause damage or loss of submerged heritage assets from accretion/ erosion, which could include shipping activities and port infrastructure development.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
Climate Ready HES notes that climate change will likely continue to increase the frequency and severity of climate risks that impact the historic environment, including physical risks to historic environment assets, to the natural capital associated with the historic environment, and to day-to-day operations; climate risks to human safety and wellbeing; and transition climate risks to HSE core functions.
Environmental Protection Objectives
There are a number of designations that afford legal protection to the historic environment, and policies that aim to recognise, protect, sustainable manage and enhance Scotland’s historic environment, which are captured in OPOF, the Historic Environment Policy for Scotland and NPF4 among others.
Landscape
Baseline
The national assessment of Scotland’s landscapes identifies 365 types of distinctive character, grouped into 52 categories, see Figure 3-7 - Landscape character ‘groupings’ identified in the national assessment of Scotland’s landscapes, evidencing the diverse character of landscapes across Scotland, where dramatic mountains, sweeping moorland and a highly indented, exposed coastline fragmented into islands characterises the north and west, and rolling uplands, fertile straths and populated estuaries dominate in the south and east.
Scotland's coasts are an important part of its nature and landscapes. There is great variety, ranging from the lochs and islands of the west coast to the sweeping beaches and dunes of the east. A separate Coastal Character Assessment identifies 13 national coastal character types.
The national assessment of Scotland’s landscapes identifies the key characteristics of Scottish landscapes to include the sense of openness, emphasised by the lack of ‘native’ tree cover; intervisibility that offers opportunities for panoramic views, particularly important in coastal and island landscapes; perceived naturalness and dominance of natural processes, particularly where there is interaction between land and water features; valued remoteness, where accessibility and connectivity are sometimes hindered; and infrastructure adapted to topographical constraints, often concentrated and in connection with scattered settlements.
Scotland’s landscapes underpin a range of social and economic interests, which is reflected in the designation of 46 National Scenic Areas (NSA), which aim to safeguard areas of nationally significant scenic quality; and a number of Local Landscape Areas (LLA), which help to protect landscape from inappropriate development and encourage positive landscape management. In addition, Scotland has two National Parks, which aim to conserve and enhance their natural and cultural heritage, applying an integrated approach to people and nature; 43 National Nature Reserves, which are exceptional places managed for wildlife and to encourage people to enjoy and appreciate wildlife; two UNESCO Global Geoparks, which recognise outstanding geological heritage value and its benefit to local people through tourism and education; and two UNESCO Biosphere reserves, which provide models for how we can live with nature and use resources for the well-being of people everywhere.
Whilst changes to landscapes exerted by natural processes are, overall, not considered to have a negative effect on landscape value, changes induced by some human activities can be considered to have a negative effect on landscape character, namely changes in perception / expectations in relation to recreation and visitor experience, changes in land use and changes introduced by incremental development, all of which can be exerted by transport infrastructure and ferry services to some extent.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
Given the intrinsic relationship between landscapes and the wider environment, baseline evolution and trends on other SEA topics, will be reflected on the future evolution of landscape value.
Environmental Protection Objectives
NatureScot Landscape Policy Framework aims to safeguard and enhance the distinct identity, the diverse character and the special qualities of Scotland’s landscapes. NPF4 calls for the protection and enhancement of the character, landscape, natural setting and identity of settlements.
Material Assets
Baseline
Material assets cover a wide variety of built and natural assets. Those of particular relevance to the ICP are considered to include transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure at ports; construction materials, such as aggregates; fuel resources, and flood protection built and natural. This SEA topic also considers built and natural assets within the context of waste management.
Scottish Transport Statistics 2023 identifies the following transport infrastructure in Scotland:
- Road network, which stretches along 57,187 km, including 7% of trunk roads (managed centrally by Transport Scotland), with Local Authorities being responsible for the remaining roads. This network supported 47.4 billion vehicle kilometres and 301 million bus passenger journeys in 2022.
- Rail network, which stretches along 2,730 km, and includes 360 stations. It supported 64 million ScotRail passenger journeys in 2022-2023.
- Four main airports (Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Glasgow and Glasgow Prestwick), which supported the transportation of 50,000 tonnes of freight and 21.5 million air terminal passengers in 2022, 4.4% from within Scotland, 34% between Scotland and the UK, and 55% between Scotland and mainland Europe. In addition, Scottish Ministers, through Highlands and Islands Airports Limited, and Local Authorities operate airports in Benbecula, Campbeltown, Dundee, Inverness, Islay, Kirkwall, Stornoway, Sumburgh, Wick, Oban, Coll, Colonsay and Tiree.
- Eleven major ports, which handled 59 million tonnes of freight in 2021, and a further 200 smaller ports and harbours. Ferry routes supported 7.6 million passengers and 2.6 million vehicles within Scotland in 2022.
The NTS notes the following environmental problems associated with transport infrastructure: air pollution, traffic congestion, and barriers to active travel; as well as vulnerability to climate change impacts.
There are a number of hybrid ferries currently operating in Scotland, as reported by CMAL, as well as ongoing procurement processes, such as the seven new electric ferries that will support the Clyde and Hebrides network by Transport Scotland. There are also a number of Scottish ports offering shore power, i.e. provision of electricity to ships berthed alongside in port, such as the port of Montrose and the port of Aberdeen (currently under construction and scheduled to deliver its first power in March 2025); or offering alternative low carbon fuels, such as Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) as reported by Scottish Enterprise. However, the majority of the Scottish fleet still relies on fossil fuels, as noted by the NTS, which has associated resource availability and pollution problems (i.e. operational air emissions and accidental discharges / spills to the water environment).
Scotland’s Marine Assessment 2020 reports that approximately £18 billion of Scottish buildings and infrastructure lie within 50 meters of the shoreline, with 75% of these protected by artificial defences and 25% protected by natural defences, such as sand dunes. Main challenges faced by flood defence built and natural assets are related to coastal erosion and rising sea levels associated with climate change.
Construction materials relevant to the ICP are those associated with transport infrastructure development. Green Alliance reports that in the UK, the construction sector has the largest material footprint of any sector. It is estimated the sector uses nearly 100Mt of materials in new infrastructure each year, 82% of which are virgin resources, predominantly concrete. Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map to 2030 notes that the extraction and processing of products and services manufactured in Scotland contribute to biodiversity loss and water stress.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
The use and development of transport infrastructure is projected to increase in line with population and economic growth. With the implementation of existing policies, it is anticipated that port infrastructure and vessels progress in their decarbonisation, making use of alternative fuel and propulsion technologies. Examples of these are identified in The Decarbonisation of Scottish Maritime Transport Study, as illustrated in Figure 3-8 - Examples of alternative fuel and propulsion technologies that could be explored for different vessel types.
Climate change, together with continued development, will continue to exert pressure on material assets.
Environmental Protection Objectives
The Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-26 (IIP) aims for infrastructure to improve Scotland’s resilience and enable inclusive, net zero and sustainable growth. The NTS aims for a sustainable, inclusive, safe and accessible transport system.
Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map to 2030 aims for Scotland to become a fully circular economy by 2045, driven by responsible production and consumption, and maximising value from waste and energy. Waste reduction targets are due to be updated.
NPF4 calls for investment in transport infrastructure that supports connectivity and reflects place-based approaches and local living, placing an emphasis on active and sustainable travel. It calls for the expansion of renewable, low-carbon and zero emission technologies, and to strengthen resilience to flood risk. It also encourages, promotes and facilitates development that is consistent with the waste hierarchy.
Population and Human Health
Baseline
Scotland’s 2022 Census reported a population of over 5.4 million in 2022. The Scottish Island Typology Overview (2024) notes that whilst the overall population of Scotland's islands has grown over the last 20 years, there is considerable variation between island regions and some islands have a declining population, as illustrated in Figure 3-9 - Percentage population change in Scottish Island Regions and Mainland Scotland, 2001 – 2021. The loss of working age populations in the islands has also been estimated to be disproportionately higher than the total percentage loss of population.
The Public Health Scotland Strategic Plan 2022-2025 notes that life expectancy in Scotland has not improved since 2012 and that there are longstanding health inequalities. Challenges include inflation on food and fuel pushing up the cost of living, tightening public sector budgets and climate change. At the same time, across the Scotland’s 2022 Census, the general health statistics show that over 78% of people are in good or very good health condition. Access to amenities and services, including GPs and hospitals, schooling, grocery stores and vehicle fuel varies widely across regions and across Scotland’s inhabited islands. In some of these, residents must leave the island to access amenities and services, and have a strong reliance on ferry services, which have become key in daily life. Of the 73 islands / island groupings considered in the Scottish Island Typology Overview (2024), 28 did not have access to direct ferry connections to mainland Scotland in the winter of 2023/24, meaning that passengers were required to travel via up to two other islands in order to reach the Scottish mainland.
According to the latest national accounts, the economy of Scotland is an open mixed economy, mainly services based, and had an estimated nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of £218.0 billion in 2023, including oil and gas extraction in the country's continental shelf region. The Islands Growth Deal highlights that the Scottish islands make an outsized contribution to the economy, including 50% of Scotland’s aquaculture gross value added (GVA), 30% of Scottish sea fish GVA, and the handle of 13% of the oil and gas produced in UK waters. The Scotland’s National Islands Plan (NIP) also identifies creativity and tourism sectors as economic drivers in the Scottish islands. Marine GVA and employment are particularly important to rural economies, including those in island communities. Scotland’s Marine Assessment 2020 reports that Scottish tourism represented £4.1 billion GVA in 2017, of which 14% was marine tourism, covering a wide range of outdoor recreational activities, visitor attractions and cruise ship visits.
SNSET notes that rural and island areas face particular challenges such as a falling labour supply, poorer access to infrastructure and housing challenges which are holding back local businesses.
Baseline Evolution and Trends
The Scottish Island Typology Overview (2024) notes that across Scotland, the projected percentage change in population by age grouping shows that the population will age in every area to 2043. Large population losses are predicted in Island Sparsely Populated Areas, which presents direct difficulties for the viability of communities, businesses and services due to low access to people. Furthermore, the percentage loss of working age population in the islands is anticipated to be disproportionately higher than the total percentage loss of population.
Scotland’s Marine Assessment 2020 predicts that marine tourism is expected to continue to expand. This and other industries important to island communities are expected to grow under the support of targeted investment programmes, including the Islands Growth Deal.
Environmental Protection Objectives
Public Health Scotland Strategic Plan 2022-2025 aims to prevent disease, prolong healthy life and promote health and wellbeing. The NIP includes policies for islands population retention and growth. The Action Plan to Address Depopulation further sets out actions to take forward at both a local and national level, to address the challenges Scotland faces as a result of depopulation. SNSET aims for Scotland to thrive across economic, social and environmental dimensions. NPF4 calls for the protection of people and places from environmental harm and supports development that improves health and wellbeing. It encourages, promotes and facilitates spaces and opportunities for play, recreation and sport. It also supports the sustainable development of economic sectors, including tourism, culture and creativity industries.