Assessment findings

Rescheduling Based on Safety Performance

In terms of progressing the delivery plan to complete dualling at an earlier date at locations where safety issues have been identified, it is considered that there is no opportunity to reschedule earlier procurement and construction of the Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing contract, as this is already planned to progress at the earliest opportunity following completion of statutory processes.

Whilst there is an opportunity to reschedule procurement and construction of the A9 North MIM Contract and the A9 Central MIM Contract, these contracts respectively include three and two junction locations within their scope where the annual review of safety performance has identified issues for further investigation. Any rescheduling of these procurements may therefore present a marginal disadvantage in terms of an expected improvement in safety performance compared to that expected from the delivery plan scheduling.

It is considered that there may be an opportunity, subject to further assessment and the availability of capital funding, to bring forward construction of the improved Dalnaspidal Junction, by means of an advance works contract involving the extension of the existing Glen Garry dual carriageway north by approximately 1km.

Initial assessment work suggests that the construction cost of such an advance works contract would be approximately £37m at Q2 2024 prices. This cost estimate is outline only at the present time and is subject to change as the scope of work is defined in more detail. The cost estimate reflects the extent of side road, earthworks, drainage and structures works required to provide a new grade separated junction at this location as part of extending the existing dual carriageway. It is estimated that, subject to an early decision to proceed, this work could be completed by the end of 2028, around two years earlier than the expected date of contract award for the A9 Central MIM Contract.

Rescheduling Based on Sections Requiring Lengthy Diversions

In terms of rescheduling the delivery plan to complete dualling at an earlier date at locations where lengthy diversions would be required in the event of road closures, it is considered that, in principle, this could be achieved by procuring the A9 Central MIM Contract before procuring the A9 North MIM Contract.

It is not considered that procurement of the A9 Central MIM Contract could proceed any earlier than the dates in the delivery plan currently envisaged for procurement of the A9 North MIM Contract, on the basis that the work required to inform further decision-making in late 2025 would still require to be completed and the subsequent work to prepare for commencement of procurement in Winter 2026/27 would still require to be undertaken. It is therefore expected that if the procurements were rescheduled in this manner, main construction works on the A9 Central MIM contract would commence in Spring 2029, with main construction works on the A9 North MIM Contract commencing in Spring 2031.

However, earlier commencement of the A9 Central MIM Contract would create an overlap with construction of the Pitlochry to Killiecrankie project, which the current delivery plan has been developed to avoid, due to the road user disruption implications. In order to avoid that overlap it would be necessary to delay commencement of main construction works on the Pitlochry to Killiecrankie project to Spring 2033, which would be expected to result in completion of the A9 Dualling programme as a whole being delayed by approximately one year, with the final dualling works expected to become operational by the end of 2036. These changes in construction schedule are shown in Figure 3, which is presented in the same “time-chainage” format as Figure 2 above.

Figure 3

This figure indicates the location and timing of rescheduled construction activity for each of the contracts comprising the A9 Dualling programme, showing the relationship with existing dual carriageway sections.

In order, from north to south, it shows:

A9 North Section

  • Existing dual Moy to Raigmore, 13.1km;
  • Tomatin to Moy Design and Build contract, 9.6km, construction commencing during 2025 and completing by the end of 2028;
  • Existing dual Slochd to Tomatin, 5.5km;
  • Dalraddy to Slochd as part of A9 North Mutual Investment Model contract, 25km, Phase 4 (21.5km) construction commencing during 2031 and completing by the end of 2035 and Phase 2 (3.5km) construction commencing during 2031 and completing by the end of 2033;
  • Kincraig to Dalraddy. 7.5km, operational September 2017; and
  • Crubenmore to Kincraig as part of A9 North Mutual Investment Model contract, 16.5km, Phase 5 (2.5km) construction commencing during 2033 and completing by the end of 2035, Phase 3 (10km) construction commencing during 2031 and completing by the end of 2035 and Phase 1 (4km)

construction commencing during 2031 and completing by the end of 2033.

A9 Central Section

  • Existing dual Crubenmore, 3.8km;
  • Dalwhinnie to Crubenmore as part of A9 Central Mutual Investment Model contract, 11km, Phase 2 (5km) construction commencing during 2029 and completing by the end of 2031 and part of Phase 5 (11km) construction commencing during 2031 and completing by the end of 2033;
  • Glen Garry to Dalwhinnie as part of A9 Central Mutual Investment Model contract, 9.5km, part of Phase 5 (11km) construction commencing during 2031 and completing by the end of 2033 and Phase 1 (4.2km) construction commencing during 2029 and completing by the end of 2031;
  • Existing dual Glen Garry, 9.3km;
  • Killiecrankie to Glen Garry as part of A9 Central Mutual Investment Model contract, 22km, Phase 6 (7.6km) construction commencing during 2031 and completing by the end of 2033, Phase 4 (10.9km) construction commencing during 2029 and completing by the end of 2032 and Phase 3 (3.5km) construction commencing during 2029 and completing by the end of 2032; and
  • Existing dual Killiecrankie, 2.2km.

A9 South Section

  • Pitlochry to Killiecrankie Design and Build contract, 6.4km, construction commencing during 2033 and completing by the end of 2036;
  • Existing dual Ballinluig to Pitlochry, 6km;
  • Tay Crossing to Ballinluig Design and Build contract, 8.2km, construction commencing during 2027 and completing by the end of 2030;
  • Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing Design and Build contract, 8.4km, construction commencing during 2027 and completing by the end of 2030;
  • Existing dual Pass of Birnam, 2.2km;
  • Luncarty to Pass of Birnam, 9.5km, operational August 2021; and

Existing dual Inveralmond to Luncarty, 3.5km.

As described in text.
Figure 3: A9 Dualling Programme Rescheduled Time-Chainage Diagram

In addition to delaying completion of the overall A9 Dualling programme, this rescheduling would also introduce gaps in the procurement of D&B contracts, of around 2 years between the expected date of contract award of the Tay Crossing to Ballinluig project in Summer 2025 and the expected date of commencement of procurement of the Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing project in Summer 2027, and of around 3 years between the expected date of contract award of the Pass of Birnam to Tay Crossing projects in Autumn 2028 and the rescheduled date of commencement of procurement of the Pitlochry to Killiecrankie project, which would now occur in Summer 2031.

Accelerating Completion of the A9 Dualling Programme

It is considered that accelerating completion of the A9 Dualling programme by introducing overlapping or concurrent procurements, which would then result in an increased volume of overlapping/concurrent construction activity, would create a number of adverse effects. These are summarised in Table 7.

Table 7: Summary of effects of accelerating procurements
Factor Effect
Road User Disruption Increased levels of road user disruption due to higher volumes of concurrent work being undertaken. Inability to schedule work to meet maximum and minimum lengths of temporary traffic management measures and gaps between such measures, respectively, adopted in development of the delivery plan.
Market Capacity for Bidding Increased pressure on market capacity to bid for projects, with outcomes for one procurement not known at the time of commencement of the subsequent procurement.
Market Capacity for Construction Increased pressure on and between main contractors to secure resources during periods of increased concurrent construction activity. Increased pressure on supply chains to meet levels of demand from main contractors during periods of increased concurrent construction activity.
Financial Circumstances Increased prices resulting from increased competition for resources.
Risk Reduction in mitigations provided within the delivery plan to manage the effects of delays on one project impacting on other projects.

It is considered that accelerating completion of the A9 Dualling programme by deploying additional resources to reduce the duration of construction programmes would result in many of the same adverse effects noted above. It would also mean that, in the event of construction delays occurring, the costs associated with those delays would be higher, due to the higher levels of resources present on sites affected by such delays. 

Engagements with contractors have not indicated any appetite for increased levels of overlapping or concurrent bidding activity, or a view that significantly shorter construction durations can be achieved than those envisaged in the delivery plan announced in December 2023. In the absence of such an appetite or a view that significantly shorter construction durations could be achieved there is low confidence that the market would support a delivery plan based on such assumptions.

In addition to being uncertain of market support, it is considered that an accelerated programme of work would be expected to provide lower certainty of cost and be at greater risk of delay than the programme of work set out in the delivery plan announced in December 2023, impacting value for money, as well as being likely to result in higher levels of disruption for road users.