Conclusion

The climate compatibility assessment was informed by available best practice and the criteria developed are representative of the relevant Scottish polices, plans and strategies and the commitments and priorities within them. This assessment does not consider aspects outside of its scope such as the economic or social impacts of the A96 Full Dualling and packages.

The list titled ‘Observations from the climate compatibility assessment’ (outlined at the end of this section) provides the climate compatibility assessment themes, criteria and success factors and associated observations from the narrative assessments and recommendations from the A96 Full Dualling and each package. The recommendations for the A96 Full Dualling and packages are focused on how the alignment of the A96 Full Dualling and packages could be improved to the specific climate change criteria.

The recommendations are available for the development organisation (Transport Scotland or other relevant organisations) to consider for inclusion in future development of the A96 Full Dualling or any package taken forward.

Public bodies are subject to the duties placed upon them by Part 4 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 . These duties require that a public body must, in exercising its functions, act in the way best calculated to contribute to the delivery of the targets set in Part 1 of the Act, in the way best calculated to help deliver any statutory programme under section 53 of the Act, and in a way that it considers is most sustainable.

The way we develop and use our transport network is critical to our response to climate change and is recognised by the National Transport Strategy 2 (NTS2) objective “Takes climate action,” and reflected in its Sustainable Travel Hierarchy.

Designing and building new transport infrastructure and refurbishing existing transport infrastructure can lead to an increase in carbon emissions and contribute to the degradation of the natural environment through construction and operation. This is particularly the case where the A96 Full Dualling and packages are forecasted to have a net increase in internal combustion engine road traffic over their lifecycle. However, building and refurbishing transport infrastructure can be compatible with climate change commitments if they are designed, procured, constructed and managed in a way that minimises the environmental impact and directly encourages and enables more sustainable transportation options at the upper tiers of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy.

The existing transport appraisal and assessment processes, including the associated Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs) applied to the A96 Corridor Review, shows a strong correlation with the climate compatibility assessment criteria developed. The TPOs are informed by the second Strategic Transport Projects Review objectives, which were based on the updated NTS2 priorities and NTS2 Sustainable Investment and Travel Hierarchies.

Where options are taken forward that have combined outcomes, such as where options affect the same settlement, they should be developed to optimise for lowest carbon and best climate resilience and adaptation outcome.

It is important that for all options that are further developed that cumulative impacts are assessed and considered in their development. This should include relevant schemes that are already consented such as the A96 Dualling Inverness to Nairn (including Nairn Bypass)

A stand-alone climate compatibility assessment, such as shown in this report, is not considered necessary for future stages of transport infrastructure development if:

• The transport appraisal and assessment processes are applied in a way which genuinely reflects the STPR2 objectives and NTS2 priorities and hierarchies which encompass climate change criteria.
• All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments are kept up to date with best practice approaches for considering both climate change adaptation and mitigation and applied to the development of all options.
• Cumulative impacts of new options and those already consented are assessed and actively considered in the development of any options taken forward.
• Relevant guidance, standards, processes, and assessments are used to inform decision making on transport development and provision.
• Public bodies discharge the duties placed upon them by Part 4 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 .

Observations from the climate compatibility assessment

Theme: Climate change adaptation and resilience

Criterion 1: Extent to which the package supports adaptation and/or resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.

Criterion 2: Extent to which the package supports the surrounding area to adapt and/or become more resilient to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.

Assessment observations: Assessments are limited to high-level commentary due to the early stage of design. Provision of additional transport systems and infrastructure have the potential to increase the resilience of the transport network to climate change, if current standards for designing and constructing transport infrastructure are maintained and updated regularly to account for climate factors. The A96 Full Dualling and all six packages have the potential to both positively and negatively impact on wider resilience, including the natural environment. To minimise the negative and maximise the positive impacts their consideration would need to directly influence all relevant design and construction activities.

Recommendation observations: All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest climate change forecasts and associated best practice and applied to the development of all options. The A96 Full Dualling and all six packages should leverage full benefit from investment to maximise the opportunities to increase resilience of the transport infrastructure and the surrounding area.

Theme: Climate change mitigation

Criterion 3: Extent to which the package supports the decarbonisation of the transport network in Scotland, including supporting transition from higher to lower emission modes, and the modal shift to greater public transport and active travel options.

Assessment observations: Carbon emissions calculated for the A96 Full Dualling and all six packages are based on associated traffic model outputs. Where the A96 Full Dualling and packages are forecasted to result in a net increase in road traffic, this translates to an associated increase in carbon emissions over their life. Conversely, where a net decrease in road traffic is forecasted there is a decrease in carbon emission over their life. As a percentage of the calculated carbon emission envelope for Scotland, the net increase or decrease in carbon emissions across the A96 Full Dualling and all six packages, and all years (up to 2045), range from +1.85% to -0.019%. The A96 Full Dualling and all six packages incorporate a range of options across the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy. At this stage it is unclear if those options which are lower on the hierarchy are balanced appropriately by those higher on the hierarchy.

Recommendation observations: The A96 Full Dualling and all six packages should be designed to maximise alignment with the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy. Where anticipated to result in a net increase in road traffic, the A96 Full Dualling and packages should be avoided or minimised. Careful consideration should be given to how the options can work together to optimise the lowest carbon emission solution (including facilitating modal shift to lower carbon options at the earliest opportunity).

Criterion 4: Extent to which the package supports the decarbonisation of the construction sector in Scotland and maximises reduction in carbon emissions.

Assessment observations: The carbon emissions from construction (direct and indirect) are estimated by applying a Scottish Government tCO2e/£1m figure for construction activity to the estimated cost of delivering the A96 Full Dualling and packages. The carbon emissions estimates range from around 140,600 tCO2e to 1,403,000 tCO2e.

Recommendation observations: Infrastructure projects in Scotland should support the decarbonisation of the construction sector. The principles and approaches of PAS2080: Carbon Management in Buildings and Infrastructure should be applied to all relevant design and construction projects. Projects should maximise impact on the wider construction industry through specification and application of best practice and incentivising and offering test beds for innovative techniques for construction decarbonisation.

Criterion 5: Extent to which land use change associated with the package mitigates carbon emissions and contributes to carbon storage and sequestration.

Assessment observations: Assessments are limited to high-level commentary due to the early stage of design. The A96 Full Dualling and all six packages present risks to, and opportunities to impact positively on, potential carbon sinks if this is actively considered throughout all design and construction activities.

Recommendation observations: Consideration should be made during the site selection and assessment process to prioritise locations which avoid or minimise potential adverse impacts, and where there are opportunities to maximise beneficial impacts on natural capital, carbon storage and sequestration. There is potential for the A96 Full Dualling and all six packages to incorporate carbon sequestration opportunities to balance potential carbon impacts of construction or operation as part of an integrated solution.