Package 5
Package description
The options included in this package are:
- Active Communities;
- Active Connections;
- Bus Priority Measures;
- Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities;
- Investment in DRT and Maas;
- Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals;
- Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line;
- Targeted Road Safety Improvements;
- Bypasses of Forres, Elgin, Keith, and Inverurie; and
- A96 Electric Corridor.
This package is focused on delivering transport network improvements to settlements and rural sections across the A96 corridor, which would aim to encourage a shift to sustainable modes, increase opportunities for residents and businesses and improve road safety. It should be noted that the A96 Dualling Inverness to Nairn (including Nairn Bypass) scheme does not form part of the A96 Corridor Review as it has successfully progressed through a Public Local Inquiry and has Ministerial consent. Interventions within Nairn itself, similar to those proposed within the other bypassed towns, however, have been included in this package for appraisal.
The locations of the settlements and interventions considered within this package in relation to the wider A96 Corridor Review transport appraisal study area (as defined within A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ) are illustrated in Figure 9.1.1 .
This package focuses on delivering networks of high-quality active travel routes and facilitates placemaking improvements within the settlements of Nairn, Forres, Elgin, Lhanbryde, Mosstodloch, Fochabers, Keith, Huntly, Inverurie, Kintore and Blackburn by creating ‘Active Communities’, where more space would be provided for people rather than traffic, which could reduce the need to travel unsustainably. Active Communities draws from the ‘20-minute neighbourhood’ concept (10 minutes there, 10 minutes back) and is built around an approximate radius of 800m from the centre of each town or settlement, whilst also creating safer routes to school and encouraging more inclusive environments for people walking, wheeling and cycling. This would enhance the sense of place and encourage the local communities to spend more time within their local areas.
High quality active travel routes between settlements along the A96 corridor also form part of this package, which would be intended to be combined to form a continuous motorised traffic-free route between Aberdeen and Inverness. By connecting communities, this element of the package would also address the need for junction improvements to enhance the provision for active modes along the route and the creation of safe crossings in rural areas, providing safe, attractive, and convenient choices for many functional and recreational journeys, enabling people to benefit from improved access to key trip attractors in neighbouring settlements, using sustainable travel modes.
A number of public transport interventions targeted at delivering faster and more reliable journey times as well as improving the overall passenger experience also form part of this package. Journey time and reliability improvements would be achieved through the inclusion of bus priority measures at appropriate locations, with rail improvements delivered through linespeed and reliability interventions on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line, reducing end-to-end journey times to two hours (currently approximately two hours and 25 minutes). This would be facilitated through the provision of passing loops, new rolling stock and improving passenger service frequencies and freight opportunities. This package does not however consider the provision of new Park and Ride facilities for onward travel by bus as they are only likely to be a viable option for capturing trips travelling to the larger cities of Aberdeen and Inverness where congestion is highest.
The package also contains the introduction of rail freight terminals, with associated gauge enhancement which would encourage freight to be transported by rail.
This package also includes interventions to improve accessibility and quality of public transport interchange facilities such as bus and railway stations throughout the corridor. Improvements are likely to include smaller scale interventions such as placemaking enhancements, improved wayfinding, enhancements to the waiting environment and/or improved accessibility, including lifts and step-free access. However, it may also include the construction of new interchange facilities.
Improvements to the public transport network coverage are also proposed through the use of flexible services, such as Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) or Community Transport (CT), supported by Mobility as a Service (MaaS) or smart technology where appropriate, at a corridor level.
This package also aims to improve the safety, resilience and reliability of the A96 Trunk Road through the provision of a bypass at Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie, whilst also addressing real and perceived severance within these communities by removing through trips. This element of the package is seen as a key enabler to maximising the benefits associated with Active Communities. As noted above, the provision of a bypass at Nairn is not included within this package as it forms part of the A96 Dualling Inverness to Nairn (including Nairn Bypass) scheme.
Targeted safety improvements also form part of this package, aiming to address both real and perceived safety concerns on the A96 Trunk Road. It is envisaged that this would be achieved through the provision of improved overtaking opportunities, junction improvements and improvements to the alignment of the carriageway at targeted locations along the route.
Development of the A96 Electric Corridor is also included within this package to encourage a shift away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This intervention would seek to improve the provision of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities along the full A96 corridor and its interfacing local roads.
Criterion 1
Criterion and success factors
- Extent to which the package supports adaptation for and/or resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.
Success factors:
- 1a. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increases in sea levels and storm surge.
- 1b. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted changes in temperatures.
- 1c. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increase in likelihood and severity of fluvial and pluvial flooding.
- 1d. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to predicted increase in likelihood and severity of storms and high winds.
Geographic and environmental context
Table 9.1 , Table 9.2 , Table 9.3 and Table 9.4 outline the geographic and environmental context against criterion 1 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of the route.
|
Package 5 Study Area |
Geographic and Environmental Context |
|
Full Corridor |
SEPA Coastal Hazard Maps identify a 0.1% chance of coastal flooding each year during a 1 in 1,000-year return period, and a 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year period. This risk is confined to the coastal settlements within the wider study area of Findhorn, Burghead and Lossiemouth, although the estuary at Findhorn does allow for a greater extent of coastal flood risk inland. There is also potential coastal flood risk for Nairn, the estuary at Spey Bay and Burghead Bay - though Burghead Bay coastal flooding is largely centred around the beach and does not extend significantly further inland (compared with Findhorn Bay and Spey Bay). |
|
Package 5 Study Area |
Geographic and Environmental Context |
|
Full Corridor |
Change in mean annual air temperature is predicted to range between +0.87C (2020-2049) and +3.05⁰C (2070-2099) within a geographical boundary of 25km around the corridor (50% probability). Change in maximum summer air temperature is predicted to range between +0.74⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.46⁰C (2070-2099) and change in minimum winter air temperature is predicted to range between +0.83⁰C (2020-2049) and +3.08⁰C (2070-2099) (50% probability). |
| Package 5 Study Area | Geographic and Environmental Context |
|---|---|
|
Full Corridor |
Fluvial Flooding: SEPA Coastal Hazard Maps identify a 10% chance of river flooding each year during a 1 in 10-year return period; 0.5% chance during a 1 in 200-year return period; and 0.1% chance during a 1 in 1,000-year return period. In addition, the geographical area at risk of flooding increases between 10 and 1,000-year return periods, with flood depths ranging between 0.3m and 1.0m. Given the significant number of watercourses, the main risk of flooding within the A96 corridor is from river flooding. This risk follows the following watercourses:
The flood mapping illustrates that the River Don poses significant flood risk to roads and settlements between Old Rayne and Dyce, with Kintore and Inverurie at significant risk. Keith however, is deemed to be at low risk. The other main settlements within the corridor of Nairn, Forres, Elgin, Fochabers, Huntly and Blackburn show significant areas of flood risk from various watercourses, including the River Spey and River Deveron. Flood protection schemes have been implemented within the corridor, including at Forres, Elgin, and Huntly, and a flood study for Inverurie and Port Elphinstone is underway. Pluvial Flooding: The average change in annual precipitation (50% probability) is predicted to be +4.65% (2020-2049), +4.59% (2040-2069) and +6.27% (2070-2099). Change in summer precipitation rate (50% probability) is predicted to be -0.59% (2020-2049), -7.74% (2040-2069) and -15.28% (2070-2099) while the change in winter precipitation rate (50% probability) is predicted to be +11.88% (2020-2049), +17.06% (2040-2069) and +27.69% (2070-2099). More frequent, high-intensity rainfall will increase the risk of flash flooding from surface water or sewers for inland communities, especially during winter months. |
|
Package 5 Study Area |
Geographic and Environmental Context |
|
Full Corridor |
There was a total of 11 weather-related incidents (flooding, snow or landscaping/fallen/overhanging branches) between 2016-2021 along the Package 5 study area. |
Package 5 criterion 1 assessment
Package 5 is at an early stage of development with limited design details on which to base an assessment. The assessment is based on potential impacts and interactions the options could have with aspects considered within this criterion.
The geographic and environmental context for the full A96 corridor forecasts that annual temperatures will increase across the corridor, with drier, warmer summers and wetter, milder winters. This means that the settlements that fall within the A96 corridor will potentially have to account for a wider range of annual temperatures and be resilient to higher peak summer temperatures (which could potentially warp surfaces, impact electronic and electrical equipment and cause heatstroke for operational users or construction workers).
Current standards for designing and constructing transport infrastructure are maintained and updated regularly to account for climate factors. This process should ensure that each option is designed and built to adapt to the predicted future impacts of climate change across the full A96 corridor. Any resulting infrastructure that is built to adapt to future impacts of climate change has the potential to increase the overall resilience of the transport network in and around the settlements.
Package 5 includes options to improve public transport facilities, including bus priority measures, investment in DRT and MaaS, linespeed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line, and the option to introduce rail freight terminals. These options will make the settlements within the A96 corridor more resilient as these options aim to provide a more reliable public transport service throughout the corridor, cutting journey times and providing a more frequent rail passenger service. The introduction of rail freight terminals will also reduce the journey time for road passengers since freight vehicles often cause delays.
Package 5 includes alternative refuelling infrastructure as part of the A96 Electric Corridor. There may be locations that may be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change impacting the existing A96, for example, future flooding that may occur in and around specific settlements. However, currently this option is not noted to be particularly prone to the identified effects of climate change.
Package 5 includes the option of the bypasses of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie and the option of the targeted road safety improvements which will be developed in accordance with the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges including DMRB LA 114 Climate standard, which assesses the resilience and adaptation of proposed road infrastructure assets at detailed design stage. DMRB LA 114 states ' the scoping assessment shall identify whether anticipated changing climate conditions and weather events are likely to have significant adverse effects on the project (or elements of the project) during construction and operation '.
Examples of potential climate impacts cited in DMRB LA 114 during construction and operations include increased frequency of extreme weather; increased temperatures; increased precipitation; increased sea level rise and wave height; and gales. Therefore, it is assumed that the roads will be designed in accordance with DMRB LA 114 to ensure resilience against extreme weather and to minimise the potential effects of climate change, to reduce the vulnerability of the infrastructure.
Package 5 criterion 1 recommendations
All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest climate change forecasts and associated best practice and applied to the development of all options.
If Package 5 is taken forward it is recommended that any potential impacts on the climate resilience of the full corridor are understood at the earliest design stage and accounted for within the design. Technologies to counteract the impacts of climate change and provide resilience for each option within Package 5 should be considered. The design for each option should embed measures for adaptation against climate-related hazards where practicable, to reduce the significance levels of any adverse impacts.
The vulnerability of all the options included in Package 5 to climate change across the full corridor should be appropriately scoped to understand the potential impacts on the associated assets during construction and operation – for example on electronic equipment; construction workers; end users; site facilities; structures; earthworks; verges; drainage; and construction plant.
Consideration should be made during the site selection process for options that require construction of new facilities or infrastructure to prioritise locations across the full corridor which are more resilient to the potential effects of climate change. For example, selecting a location for the infrastructure on naturally higher ground levels and building away from coastal areas and/or floodplains that are anticipated to be subject to flooding. Additionally, the drainage capabilities of the infrastructure should be designed to deal with more intense rainfall events and flooding.
Active travel provisions should include elements that will support adaptation for and/or resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change. For example, the use of porous pavements for pedestrianised areas and cycling routes and the use of higher solar reflectance/cool pavements in pedestrianised areas and cycling lanes should be considered. Additionally, road salt and snow removal should be prioritised in pedestrianised areas and cycling routes.
It is recommended that during the design development of the options within this package, consideration is given to including structural adaptation measures, for example, selecting materials that are resistant to the expected extremes of both low and high temperatures, building protective infrastructure such as flood defences; and using permeable paving surfaces to reduce run-off during heavy rainfalls. Nature-based solutions should also be considered to further enhance natural resilience and adaptation measures.
Finally, the selection of materials used within the construction of the transport options should be based on their resilience to extreme weather, for example, preference should be given to corrosion-resistant materials rather than utilising metals and treating them with a non-corrosive powder coating.
Criterion 2
Criterion and success factor
Criterion 2 is:
- Extent to which the package supports the surrounding area to adapt and/or become more resilient to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.
Success factors:
- 2a. Supports adaptation for and/or resilience to current and future impacts of climate change within the study area outside of the package boundary.
- 2b. Supports the natural environment to adapt for and/or increase resilience to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.
Geographic and environmental context
Table 9.5 and Table 9.6 outline the geographic and environmental context against criterion 2 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of the route.
|
Package 5 Study Area |
Geographic and Environmental Context |
|
Full Corridor |
The geographic and environmental context for the full corridor are described in Package 5 Criterion 1 (Section 9.2). |
| Package 5 Study Area | Geographic and Environmental Context |
|---|---|
|
Full Corridor |
Ecological designations fall either completely or partially within the study area of the A96 corridor include: • 43 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI); • Eight Special Protection Areas (SPA); • Seven Special Areas of Conservation (SAC); • Four Ramsar sites; • One Local Nature Reserves (LNR); • Two Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) Reserves; • 20 Conservation Areas. The number, frequency and density of environmental designations is notably higher at the western end (particularly between Inverness and Huntly). The full extent of the Moray Firth coastline within the study area has environmental protection. |
Package 5 criterion 2 assessment
Package 5 is at an early stage of development with limited design details on which to base an assessment. The assessment is based on potential impacts and interactions the options could have with aspects considered within this criterion.
The construction of the options included in Package 5 could impact the surrounding area’s ability to adapt to climate change. This could be either positive or negative depending on how the options are designed and delivered.
The design and construction of all options included in Package 5 would be developed in accordance with relevant standards including DMRB. A risk that would need to be managed through design would be the interaction that the option would have with the drainage of the surrounding area. DMRB requires that schemes developed in accordance with the relevant standards should not increase flood risk to the surrounding area. The design should take account of existing risks such as communities that already experience flooding, for example, between 2016-2021, a total of eleven weather-related incidents involving either rain with/without high winds or snow with/without high winds caused A96 road closure. Development of the option could have a net positive impact on the area’s ability to adapt to climate change if designed and delivered to go beyond mitigating risks and identify and take advantage of potential opportunities. This could include appropriate drainage features and flood defence systems – including outside of the option boundary.
The delivery of the options included in Package 5 could positively or negatively impact the ecosystem services provided by the surrounding area, depending on how the options are designed and delivered. The ecosystem services provided by the area surrounding the study area and which may be impacted by the delivery of the transport options include (but are not limited to):
- Regulating services : such as soil conservation and the carbon sequestration service provided by peatland, for example, between Fochabers and Keith where there are 20 pockets of Class 1 peatland which are nationally important carbon-rich soils, deep peat and priority peatland habitat.
- Supporting services : including nutrient cycling, soil formation and photosynthesis provided by the natural environment along the A96 corridor such as High Wood near Forres; Kirkhill and Birkenhill woods near Elgin; Bennachie Forest near Inverurie; Moray Monster Trails near Fochabers; Crooked Wood near Lhanbryde; and Tyrebagger Hill near Blackburn.
- Provisioning services : fresh water; timber and other forest products processed by companies such as Linnorie Firewood Services and Jewson Huntly timber merchants both in Huntly; Robertson Timber Engineering in Elgin; and Chas Smith Sawmill between Huntly and Keith.
- Cultural services : the recreational and aesthetic sites within the study area including (but not limited to) Garioch Heritage Centre in Inverurie; Huntly Castle; museums including the Moray Motor Museum; the many distilleries in the area including Strathisla Distillery and Strathmill Distillery (both in Keith) and Glen Moray Distillery in Elgin; Gordon Castle Estate near Mosstodloch; Benromach Distillery in Forres; Marshall’s Farm Shop and Forest Farm The Organic Dairy, both near Blackburn; Huntly Castle; Coxton Tower near Lhanbryde; the Coach House Caravan and Campsite and Dunnideer Castle, both between Inverurie and Huntly; and Threaplands Garden Centre between Lhanbryde and Mosstodloch.
Collectively the options included in Package 5 have the potential to support the communities within the study area to become more resilient to current and predicted future impacts of climate change through provision of additional transport options. For example, Package 5 includes options to improve public transport facilities including bus priority measures, improved public transport passenger interchange facilities and linespeed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line. If one of these modes of public transport experiences travel disruption due to adverse weather conditions then the improvements made to other facilities have the potential to provide an alternative transport option.
Package 5 includes alternative refuelling infrastructure as part of the A96 Electric Corridor and investment in DRT and MaaS options. The impact of these options on the surrounding area’s ability to adapt to climate change could be positive depending on how the options are designed and delivered. Currently, these options are not noted to be particularly prone to the identified effects of climate change.
The Package 5 study area includes land designated as environmentally sensitive, including 43 SSSI, seven SAC, eight SPA and 20 Geological Conservation Review Sites, which present a risk and opportunity regarding their future management. As such, there may be impact on the designated land and its ability to adapt to current and predicted future impacts of climate change.
Package 5 criterion 2 recommendations
All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest climate change forecasts and associated best practice and applied to the development of all options.
Options should be designed, constructed and maintained to maximise the opportunities to improve the resilience and adaption of the surrounding area to the future impacts of climate change and local conditions. This could include appropriate drainage features and flood defence systems – including outside of the option boundary.
Consideration should be given to the interdependency of the transport options and their ability to function if one or more of the transport modes is interrupted due to adverse weather conditions.
Options should be designed, constructed and maintained to maximise the opportunities to improve the ecosystem services of the surrounding area and the natural environment’s resilience to the future impacts of climate change. This should include the potential impacts listed in paragraph 9.3.7.
-
- Criterion 3
Criterion and success factor
Criterion 3 is:
- Extent to which the package supports the decarbonisation of the transport network in Scotland, including supporting transition from higher to lower emission modes, and the modal shift to greater public transport and active travel options.
Success factors:
- 3a. The net change in user carbon emissions sit appropriately within the calculated emissions envelope for Scotland, taking account of changing legislation and targets (including any Climate Change Plan update for Scotland) (assumed current target of 2045).
- 3b. Supports the transition to low carbon modes of transport: transition from higher emissions to lower emissions modes, the modal shift to public transport and the modal shift to active travel for shorter everyday journeys.
Geographic and environmental context
-
-
- Table 9.7 and Table 9.8 outline the geographic and environmental context against criterion 3 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of the route.
-
|
Package 5 Study Area |
Geographic and Environmental Context |
|
Full Corridor |
No additional context required - the net change calculations are shown in the Package 5 Criterion 3 Assessment section below (Table 9.9 and Table 9.10). |
| Package 5 Study Area | Geographic and Environmental Context |
|---|---|
|
Full Corridor |
There are several on and off-road walking and cycling corridors in the study area, many being local networks, alongside a network of long-distance cycle routes that form part of the National Cycle Network (NCN). Though NCN routes are not always adjacent to the A96, they are important long-distance connections between the rural and urban communities within the wider study area. These include:
The entire A96 route is covered by a bus route between Aberdeen and Inverness, with local services available in the larger towns along the route including Elgin and Inverurie. The regional bus network is primarily underpinned by supported public and school transport services run by Stagecoach, as well as First Bus in Aberdeen City, alongside smaller coach operators and local authority run services. Community transport and demand responsive transport services are operated within each of the local authorities although coverage is limited, with membership often required. Transport Accessibility (TRACC) Travel Time Analysis has been used to indicate frequency of bus services along the A96 corridor. This analysis indicates that the smaller towns in the more rural sections of the study area, including Huntly, Keith, and Fochabers have a very infrequent bus service at peak times for commuting to employment or education. There are more than 320 EV charging points along the entire A96 route, with 73% of those charging points made up of fast charging points. The largest cluster of EV charging points is at the town of Blackburn which has 173 charging points including slow charging, fast charging, rapid charging and ultra-rapid charging points.. The EV charging points are largely centred around communities across the A96 route, with very few charging locations across the wider, remoter network. |
Package 5 criterion 3 assessment
Table 9.9 and Table 9.10 below show the net change in road user emissions with and without the package, under both the ‘With Policy’’ and ‘Without Policy’ transport behaviour scenarios.
|
Year |
% Emissions reduction from baseline year |
Annual carbon emissions envelope (Mt CO2e) |
Without package (Do Nothing) (tCO2e) |
With package (Do-Something) (tCO2e) |
Net change (tCO2e) |
Net tCO2e as % of the annual carbon emission envelope |
|
1990 |
Baseline |
75.7 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
2030 |
75% |
18.93 |
212639.8 |
213114.3 |
474.51 |
0.003% |
|
2031 |
76.50% |
17.79 |
198463.8 |
198906.7 |
442.88 |
0.002% |
|
2032 |
78.00% |
16.65 |
184287.8 |
184699.1 |
411.24 |
0.002% |
|
2033 |
79.50% |
15.52 |
170111.8 |
170491.5 |
379.61 |
0.002% |
|
2034 |
81.00% |
14.38 |
155935.9 |
156283.8 |
347.98 |
0.002% |
|
2035 |
82.50% |
13.25 |
141759.9 |
142076.2 |
316.34 |
0.002% |
|
2036 |
84.00% |
12.11 |
127583.9 |
127868.6 |
284.71 |
0.002% |
|
2037 |
85.50% |
10.98 |
113407.9 |
113661.0 |
253.07 |
0.002% |
|
2038 |
87.00% |
9.84 |
99231.9 |
99453.3 |
221.44 |
0.002% |
|
2039 |
88.50% |
8.71 |
85055.9 |
85245.7 |
189.81 |
0.002% |
|
2040 |
90% |
7.57 |
70879.9 |
71038.1 |
158.17 |
0.002% |
|
2041 |
92.00% |
6.06 |
56703.9 |
56830.5 |
126.54 |
0.002% |
|
2042 |
94.00% |
4.54 |
42528.0 |
42622.9 |
94.90 |
0.002% |
|
2043 |
96.00% |
3.03 |
28352.0 |
28415.2 |
63.27 |
0.002% |
|
2044 |
98.00% |
1.51 |
14176.0 |
14207.6 |
31.63 |
0.002% |
|
2045 |
100% |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0 |
N/A |
|
Year |
% Emissions reduction from baseline year |
Annual carbon emissions envelope (Mt CO2e) |
Without package (Do Nothing) (tCO2e) |
With package (Do-Something) (tCO2e) |
Net change (tCO2e) |
Net tCO2e as % of the annual carbon emission envelope |
|
1990 |
Baseline |
75.7 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
2030 |
75% |
18.93 |
318601.7 |
319805.1 |
1203.43 |
0.006% |
|
2031 |
76.50% |
17.79 |
311750.3 |
313007.1 |
1256.79 |
0.007% |
|
2032 |
78.00% |
16.65 |
304898.9 |
306209.0 |
1310.15 |
0.008% |
|
2033 |
79.50% |
15.52 |
298047.4 |
299411.0 |
1363.51 |
0.009% |
|
2034 |
81.00% |
14.38 |
291196.0 |
292612.9 |
1416.87 |
0.010% |
|
2035 |
82.50% |
13.25 |
284344.6 |
285814.8 |
1470.24 |
0.011% |
|
2036 |
84.00% |
12.11 |
277493.2 |
279016.8 |
1523.60 |
0.013% |
|
2037 |
85.50% |
10.98 |
270641.7 |
272218.7 |
1576.96 |
0.014% |
|
2038 |
87.00% |
9.84 |
263790.3 |
265420.6 |
1630.32 |
0.017% |
|
2039 |
88.50% |
8.71 |
256938.9 |
258622.6 |
1683.68 |
0.019% |
|
2040 |
90% |
7.57 |
250087.5 |
251824.5 |
1737.05 |
0.023% |
|
2041 |
92.00% |
6.06 |
243236.0 |
245026.4 |
1790.41 |
0.030% |
|
2042 |
94.00% |
4.54 |
236384.6 |
238228.4 |
1843.77 |
0.041% |
|
2043 |
96.00% |
3.03 |
229533.2 |
231430.3 |
1897.13 |
0.063% |
|
2044 |
98.00% |
1.51 |
222681.8 |
224632.2 |
1950.49 |
0.129% |
|
2045 |
100% |
0 |
215830.3 |
217834.2 |
2003.86 |
N/A |
Package 5 includes options that sit across the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy and have varying contribution to decarbonisation of the transport network. The options map to the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy is as below in Figure 9.3.1.
Walking, wheeling and cycling
-
-
- The Active Communities and Active Connections options included in Package 5 would help to facilitate a modal shift from car to active modes and would thus lead to a modest reduction in carbon emissions. These options sit high in the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy and could encourage the reduced use of non-renewable energy fuelled modes of transport, supporting the decarbonisation of the transport network. The improved public transport passenger interchange facilities option also supports walking, wheeling and cycling as the improvements are likely to encourage the use of alternative, low carbon modes of transport.
-
Public transport
-
-
- The options included in the public transport tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy include investment in DRT and MaaS; bus priority measures; improved public transport passenger interchange facilities; and linespeed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line.
- Collectively, these options have the potential to increase the attractiveness of public transport and could encourage a modal shift away from private car use over time. This may contribute to a decrease in associated carbon emissions during the operation of the proposed measures, thus contributing to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.
- The extent of change in carbon emissions from affected buses and cars will depend on the fuel being used and factors such as the location of the new bus priority sites. Delivering faster and more reliable journey times for bus passengers could increase the attractiveness of bus as a mode of transport, resulting in mode shift from car. In addition, provision of bus priority measures could reduce bus operating costs, providing the opportunity to leverage other bus service improvements from operators, such as increased mileage.
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Taxis, shared transport and private car
The delivery of the bypasses and the targeted road safety improvements at selected locations between Hardmuir, to the east of the town of Nairn, and Craibstone Roundabout, west of Aberdeen, is likely to improve the reliability of the A96 corridor since it will primarily consist of improvements to highway infrastructure. As such these improvements may make the A96 a more attractive route for private vehicles to use. The road safety improvements to the A96 may also make it a more attractive route for residents to use public transport travelling on the route, aligning with the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy. As the provision of the targeted road safety improvements may improve attractiveness of the A96 for private vehicles this may have a counter effect on modal shift. However, the delivery of the A96 Electric Corridor option will improve the overall network coverage and capacity for electric vehicles in and around the study area. This is expected to increase the overall attractiveness and reliability of using low/zero-emission vehicles along the A96. Through this option, it is expected that there will be a reduction in tailpipe carbon emissions, particularly over the long-term as the uptake of low and zero emission vehicles increases.
In the longer term, Package 5 could help to facilitate a modal shift to public transport and active travel through options such as bus priority measures and improved public transport. If this was achieved, it would support decarbonisation of the transport network in Scotland and the transition from higher to lower emission modes of transport.
Package 5 criterion 3 recommendations
All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest climate change forecasts and associated best practice and applied to the development of all options.
All the options in Package 5 should be designed to improve alignment with the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy and careful consideration should be given to how the options can work together to optimise the lowest carbon option, for example, for different journeys and shorter routes.
As part of the Active Connections option, it is recommended that connections are maximised within and between the rural sections of the A96 corridor to improve and maximise walking, wheeling, and cycling opportunities for both local residents and visitors. Improvements could include suitable surfacing for all user types (including wheelchair users); few slopes/no stairs wherever possible; improved crossing points to promote safety; and suitably secure bike storage in and around the villages.
The impact on carbon emissions, of the options in the public transport tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy (improved public transport passenger interchange facilities, bus priority measures, and line speed, passenger and freight capacity improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line), will depend on the fuel being used by buses and trains. It is therefore recommended that low-carbon modes of buses and trains are considered. It is envisaged that low carbon/zero carbon alternatives will become more cost efficient as technologies improve.
To fully support decarbonisation of the transport network, the following should be considered for all rail and transport hub improvement options: suitable provisions for bike storage at any improved/new stations; suitable station facilities to minimise private car miles; and improved local walking/cycling connections to promote the train facilities as a suitable, sustainable mode of transport. It is important that consideration is given to how the public transport options can work together to optimise use of the lowest carbon options.
The development of the A96 Electric Corridor option should include the distribution of electric and hydrogen-based fuel sources in addition to other alternative fuels such as HVO and Ammonia. The dispensaries should be placed strategically across the rural sections of the A96 corridor so that they are highly accessible to both road users and rural local communities. Consideration should also be given to demountable and mobile infrastructure.
The bypasses of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie and the targeted road safety improvements would be designed to DMRB standards and therefore the design will be obligated to consider the provision of facilities for non-motorised users of the A96 corridor. The bypasses and the road safety improvements should be designed to maximise associated active travel and opportunities for public transport. It is important that consideration is given to how the active travel and public transport options can work together to optimise use of the lowest carbon options.
Criterion 4
Criterion and success factor
Criterion 4 is:
- Extent to which the package supports the decarbonisation of the construction sector in Scotland and maximises reduction in whole life carbon emissions.
Success factor:
- 4a. Supports transition from higher emission to lower emission materials and technologies during construction, operation, and maintenance.
Geographic and environmental context
Table 9.11 outlines the geographic and environmental context against criterion 4 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of the route.
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Package 5 Study Area |
Geographic and Environmental Context |
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Full Corridor |
UK Built Environment is responsible for 25% of total UK carbon emissions including buildings and infrastructure ( UK Green Building Council, 2021 ). In relation to operation of their network Transport Scotland, as part of the Scottish Government, use renewable or zero carbon electricity tariffs for the electricity used to power the road network (such as for the use in lighting). |
Package 5 criterion 4 assessment
Package 5 is at an early stage of development with limited design details on which to base an assessment. The assessment is based on potential impacts and interactions the options could have with aspects considered within this criterion.
Since there are limited design details, the carbon emissions impact is estimated from the capital cost forecast by applying the Scottish Government ‘Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables’ figure for construction. This provides an estimate of between 280,900tCO 2 e and 701,700tCO 2 e for the capital stage carbon emissions impact.
The construction stage carbon emissions will vary between the options in the package. The variability is likely to depend on the level of new infrastructure required to implement the options – with the greater the level of construction resulting in greater levels of associated carbon emissions.
Package 5 as described makes no commitments to how the carbon emissions impact from construction, maintenance and operation would be minimised and so any resulting benefits or carbon reduction measures cannot be specifically considered within this assessment.
The operational element of the carbon emissions impact is reduced in part through the use of renewable/zero carbon electricity tariffs, if that approach is continued.
If Package 5 is developed, the bypasses and the targeted road safety improvements would be subject to relevant standards and assessment procedures for the type of transport infrastructure. For example, for road development this would include the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges. Where the latest version of the DMRB climate change assessment standard (LA 114) is applied it requires the assessment of carbon emissions at detailed design stage.
Package 5 criterion 4 recommendations
All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest best practice on carbon emission reductions and applied to the development of all options.
If Package 5 was taken forward there would be an opportunity as a major infrastructure project in Scotland to strongly support decarbonisation of the construction sector. Application of PAS2080: Carbon Management in Buildings and Infrastructure to all schemes and all suppliers will help to systematically address whole life carbon emissions. This should include stretching carbon emissions reduction targets for suppliers, and consideration of carbon neutral standards (such as PAS 2060 - Carbon Neutrality Standard and Certification) for any suppliers managing the network beyond 2045.
The impact of Package 5 on carbon emissions will depend on the methods used during construction. It is therefore recommended that innovative techniques and technologies are used where relevant to reduce emissions. These should be focused on optimising the design to build less and to consume less carbon intensive materials (such as asphalt, concrete and steel). This could include lower temperature mixes for asphalt, concrete with high cement replacement, and steel with high recycled content.
During construction, opportunities to reduce carbon emissions should be maximised such as local sourcing, construction and logistics efficiencies, alternative modes of transport – for example rail rather than road, low emission vehicles, and low carbon fuels.
With regards maintenance, more resilient technology could be installed in the first instance to withstand climatic factors, subsequently making the option more resilient and requiring less maintenance. As techniques and technologies improve, it is recommended that these are adopted at the earliest possible stage, subject to a cost/benefit analysis being undertaken.
The principles of the circular economy should be applied during design, construction, and maintenance. For example, material reduction and reuse should be prioritised to comply with the waste management hierarchy, and opportunities should be sought to recondition and use existing transport infrastructure where appropriate.
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- Criterion 5
Criterion and success factor
Criterion 5 is:
- Extent to which land use change associated with the package mitigates carbon emissions and contributes to carbon storage and sequestration.
Success factor:
- 5a. Supports the protection and development of carbon sinks, and takes appropriate measures to maximise carbon sequestration, taking account of wider ecosystem services/natural capital.
Geographic and environmental context
Table 9.12 outlines the geographic and environmental context against criterion 5 within a 7.5km boundary (unless otherwise stated, for example, when using the MET Office Data) of the route.
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Package 5 Study Area |
Geographic and Environmental Context |
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Full Corridor |
There are several pockets of peatland across the study area:
Within the full corridor study area, there are approximately 32,400 hectares of Ancient Woodland (AWI) (919 counts) and 12,150 hectares of woodland recorded in the Native Woodland of Scotland Survey (NWSS) (3,325 counts). |
Package 5 criterion 5 assessment
Package 5 is at an early stage of development with limited design details which to base an assessment. The assessment is based on potential impacts and interactions the options could have with aspects considered within this criterion.
The transport options within Package 5 are solely infrastructure-led and do not explicitly include the provision of public realm improvements to green space, or blue or green infrastructure assets. Therefore, it is not possible to confirm if Package 5 would have a positive impact on land use change, carbon storage and sequestration.
All the options would be developed in accordance with the relevant standards and relevant Scottish Government and Transport Scotland policies and plans. The scale of the effects would be subject to detailed design and the location of the options being determined.
The option has the potential for negative environmental effects on the storage and sequestration of carbon within natural ecosystems. The scale and locations of the interventions would be subject to detailed design and therefore at this stage the extent of effects is uncertain.
The area within the full corridor includes land designated as environmentally sensitive, which presents a risk and opportunity to be managed in terms of how they are impacted on/or supported in terms of their ability to sequester and store carbon.
Package 5 criterion 5 recommendations
All relevant design, construction and maintenance guidance, standards, processes, and assessments should be kept up to date with the latest climate change forecasts and associated best practice and applied to the development of all options.
Consideration should be made during the site selection process to prioritise locations where there are likely to be minimal potential adverse effects on carbon storage and sequestration.
Existing carbon sinks should be enhanced wherever possible, to increase potential carbon sequestration as an integral part of the schemes, particularly relating to peatland restoration and wetland enhancement.