Background

Context

The NTS was launched in February 2020, immediately prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic. COVID-19 had a profound impact on travel and transport in Scotland, with restrictions placed on travel at various points throughout the Pandemic, fear of transmission of the virus, and changes in working practice all impacting on demand for transport services.

The Scottish Government’s response to the Pandemic was to pivot available resource to address the immediate impacts. For Transport Scotland, Scotland’s transport agency, this meant putting on hold many of the policies designed to progress and deliver on the NTS outcome and focus instead on ensuring the transport system was supported and services were safe if using to use.

The first NTS Delivery Plan for 2020-2022 recognised the impact of the pandemic on the public transport system and the need for Scottish Government financial support to continue its operation amid sharp declines in passengers at that time. It also highlighted activity aimed at maximising some the positive impacts the Pandemic had on transport behaviours, particularly the Spaces for People fund which supported local authorities to put in place temporary measures which provide safe walking and cycling in support of physical distancing, and funding for the Scotland Cycle Repair Scheme.

The second NTS Delivery Plan covering 2022-2023 continued to promote walking, cycling, public transport and bike, car and ride sharing in preference to single occupancy car use. Planned investment was targeted at infrastructure, proactive promotion and improved co-ordination across all transport modes with the aim of achieving generational change in behaviour and attitude towards transport choices, encouraging demand for active travel and low carbon transport options and encouraging multimodal journeys as the norm.

Since then, a number of key projects have been completed, including the transfer of ScotRail into public ownership in 2022; continued investment in the railway; and extension of the concessionary travel scheme to children and young people under the age of 22. The second Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) was also published, which sets out priorities for investment and providing further insight on the programming of the 45 STPR2 recommendations.

The third NTS Delivery Plan, covering the period 2023-24, noted that Scotland continues to face many challenges across society and business including the cost of living crisis, residual impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and record levels of inflation. It outlined measures to build on ongoing measures including developing Scotland’s strategic transport infrastructure; publishing an Islands Connectivity Plan Strategic Paper and the draft Long-Term Plan for Vessels for Ports; and work to deliver a fair transition to Net Zero in the transport sector.

The fourth Delivery Plan for the NTS for 2024-25, due to be published in December 2024, sets out the policies that will be taken forward to deliver against the NTS priorities and highlights progress from the previous year. This includes the establishment of a pathfinder Pilot as part of the Fair Fares Review (the “ScotRail Peak Fares Removal Pilot”) to encourage modal shift from car to rail by reducing the cost of travel at peak times for a period of six months between 2 October 2023 and 29 March 2024. This was extended to the end of September 2024 and Transport Scotland published an impact evaluation on this project.

This year also saw the reopening of Levenmouth railway, at an investment level of £116 million, with two fully accessible stations at Cameron Bridge and in Leven, and passenger services commencing on the 2 June 2024. Over 1km of active travel bridges and routes connecting communities to the new stations are in delivery as part of the programme.

Work is also currently underway on the Islands Connectivity Plan (ICP), setting out how ferry services will be delivered, and strengthened, working towards a long-term vision, with findings from the recent public consultation and community engagement on various islands published alongside our initial response to the consultation report.

Further details and links to published research and evaluations since the NTS was introduced can be found at Annex A.

Baseline and Data Limitations

An analytical baseline report was produced and published in June 2022. Where possible, this report used data from 2019 to establish baselines for measurement. Although this period is prior to the publication of the NTS2 in 2020, it is the last full year in which travel was unaffected by the COVID-19 Pandemic. It therefore provides data from a ‘typical’ year pre-pandemic with regard to transport and travel, as opposed to 2020 where these were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 Pandemic and the associated restrictions on travel.

In many cases, data for 2020 and 2021 is not directly comparable with other years. However, these figures still can still offer insight into travel behaviour during the pandemic, which has had a continuing impact.

Data availability has also been affected by the impact of the pandemic and this in turn impacts on the continuity and comparability of data before, during, and after the pandemic period. For example, the Scottish Household Survey (SHS) - a key source for monitoring transport and travel in Scotland - made methodological changes in 2020 and 2021 in response to the pandemic. These changes included shifting from face-to-face to online or telephone interviews and mean that data from 2020 and 2021 are not directly comparable with other years. This limits our ability to use the SHS to report on changes to transport and travel habits during the pandemic period, and to report on change since the NTS baseline period in instances where survey questions were most recently asked in 2020 or 2021.

Some of the indicators used inform progress against more than one of the NTS priority areas and are therefore reported on more than once in the report. The majority of the data that is used for the indicators comes from official statistics published on an annual basis by the Scottish Government. The two key publications are Transport and Travel in Scotland, and Scottish Transport Statistics.

Transport and Travel in Scotland reports includes Scottish Household Survey transport data, including results from the Travel Diary. The Scottish Household Survey (SHS) is an annual survey of the general population in Scotland, carried out since 1999. It collects reliable and up-to-date information on a range of topics through a random sample of people in private residences. The survey covers a number of topics relating to transport and travel, including a ‘travel diary’, which involves respondents recounting the details of all of the journeys they made the day before their survey interview.

The latest Transport and Travel in Scotland report, published in November 2024, presents transport and travel findings from the 2023 Scottish Household Survey. The report provides analysis on the latest annual figures but also trend analysis showing changes over time. This allows for comparisons between the NTS baseline period and subsequent years’ data, where possible.

Scottish Transport Statistics is a compendium statistics publication pulling together data on all aspects of transport in Scotland from a wide range of sources. The publication covers all modes of transport and provides statistical commentary and analysis of a broad range of data. The latest Scottish Transport Statistics publication covers data up until 2022-23.

Other sources of data contained within the reports come commissioned research undertaken on behalf of Transport Scotland; in-house analysis; and data gathered by Transport Focus, an independent watchdog for transport users.