Summary of Key Points

As the NTS is a 20-year strategy, it is still relatively early to make a firm assessment of progress. The COVID-19 Pandemic also had a fundamental impact on travel behaviours and demand for transport, and there are legacy impacts from this which have changed the way people use and require transport. Measuring the progress of the NTS at this stage is therefore more difficult as a result.

Over and above the COVID-19 Pandemic’s impact on travel behaviour, the pandemic also affected our ability to monitor and evaluate the NTS. The NTS Monitoring and Evaluation Framework was designed prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic and assumed that the data to be used to evidence progress of the Strategy would be available continuously on a comparable basis. This would allow for analysis of data trends even over the initial years of the Strategy. However, due to pandemic-enforced changes to data collection during 2020 and 2021 for some of the indicators, the figures for these years are not comparable with other years and our ability to analyse trends is limited.

Natural fluctuations in the data limit the extent to which firm conclusions on progress at this stage of the strategy can be drawn from changes between single years.

However, despite these external factors, since the baseline period of 2019, there has been some evidence of progress against the many of the headline indicators within the NTS Monitoring and Evaluation Framework.

Reduces Inequalities

The overall number of bus and train journeys continues to recover from the impact of the pandemic and overall, people are still travelling less on public transport than in 2019. The number of local bus journeys in Scotland was 18% lower in 2022/23 than in 2019/20, and the number of Scotrail passengers was 16% lower in 2023/24 than in 2019/20.

Among the population as a whole, in 2023, 38% reported using the bus at least once in the last month, with 7% using it every day or almost every day. This is similar to the baseline figures of 2019 which were 39% and 8% respectively. Bus use at least once in the past month is more common among young people, particularly those aged 16-19 (64%); those in large urban areas (56%), those on lower incomes (50% of those earning less than £10,000 p.a.) and those in the 20% most deprived areas (47%). Women (40%) are more likely to report using the bus at least once in the last month than men (35%).

Evidence from the one year on evaluation of young persons’ free bus travel scheme showed that increasing numbers of young people were travelling by bus across a wide range of journey purposes because of the scheme. There is some limited early evidence of modal shift away from car use to buses, with young people using the bus both to make journeys they would have made anyway as well as a large volume of new/additional journeys.

In 2023, 28% of the population reported using the train at least once in the last month. This is slightly less than the baseline figure for 2019 which was 30%. Nine per cent of the population used it once a week or more in both 2019 and 2023. Using the train at least once in the last month is more common among those from higher income households (40% of those from households earning over £50,000 p.a.), those in the 20% least deprived areas (34%), those in ‘large urban’ or ‘other’ urban areas (34% and 29% respectively), and those aged 16-19 (38%) and aged 20-29 (39%). Train use at least once in the last month was less common among disabled people (17%) compared to non-disabled people (32%).

In 2023, 70% of people said that their transport costs were either fairly easy or very easy to afford. This is an increase from 2022 (64%). Comparison with the baseline period is not possible, as comparable data has only been collected from 2022.

Those in households on incomes up to £10,000 were less likely to consider their costs affordable (57%).

The Scottish Household Survey also asked users of bus and rail services whether they agreed with a number of statements about their services. Regarding rail, 52% agreed that ‘train fares are good value’. This was a non-statistically significant increase in agreement compared with 2019 (48%). Note that fieldwork period for the survey continued until February 2024 when the ScotRail Peak Fares Removal Pilot was in operation.

For bus, the percentage of users agreeing that bus fares were good value increased between 2019 and 2023 from (55% to 62%).

Satisfaction with public transport has fluctuated since the baseline but remains lower than in 2019. This mirrors the recent trend in satisfaction in public services overall. A combined measure of satisfaction with the three main public services (local health services, schools and public transport) decreased from 53% in 2019 to 43% in 2023. Individually, all three public services saw a drop in satisfaction compared with the baseline. The largest drop was for satisfaction with local health services (from 80% in 2019 to 67% in 2023), although levels of satisfaction were lowest for public transport (64% in 2023).

Takes Climate Action

In 2023, the average number of journeys per day per adult was 1.59. This is less than the baseline position in 2019 which was 1.94 journeys per day.

Over a third (35%) of journeys in 2023 were made using sustainable modes. This is slightly higher than the baseline position when 33% of journeys were made using sustainable modes. The increase is due to greater use of active travel in 2023 compared to 2019.

There has also been a slight increase in short journeys by sustainable mode. For journeys under two miles, in 2023, 52% of all trips were made by active modes. These figures are higher than in 2019, when 49% of trips were made by active modes. For journeys under 5 miles, 39% of all trips were by active modes. These figures are higher than in 2019, when 35% of trips were made by active modes.

There are also increases to levels of walking for pleasure since the baseline position in 2019.

The number of ultra-low emission vehicles registered in Scotland for the first time in 2022 was 21,980, a 23% increase on the corresponding figure for 2021 (17,900) and over 300% higher than the baseline figure of 2019 (5,066).

Latest emissions (2021) shows that 59% of all NOx emissions were from transport, which is a decrease from 2019 when transport comprised 64% of overall emissions. Note, however, that this data was gathered at a time when road traffic (which is greatest share of transport emissions) was below 2019 levels.

Helps Deliver Inclusive Economic Growth

There has been a reduction in the proportion of commuting trips between 2023 (21%) and the baseline in 2019 (23%). However, it remains one of the main journey purposes, alongside shopping (24%), going for a walk (10%) and visiting friends and relatives (10%).

International travel to Scotland continued its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Visits were up 23% compared to 2022 and 15% compared to the baseline of 2019. Similarly, the volume of domestic trips and nights was higher in 2023.

There have been reductions in the volume of water freight and air freight carried, while the volume of rail freight is at the same level as the baseline. Figures on road freight are not comparable to the baseline.

Scotrail rail services show high levels of performance. In 2022-23, 89.0% of ScotRail services, arrived on time. This is the same as at the baseline figures for 2019-20.

For ferry services, there are measures of both contractual reliability and actual reliability. Contractual makes allowances for circumstances out with operators’ control, including extreme weather conditions.

For Caledonian MacBrayne, measures of both contractual and actual reliability of lifeline ferry services were high. The level of contractual reliability (the number of timetabled sailings actually operated) was 99% in 2022-23 and the level of punctuality (against the published timetable) was 100%. This is similar to the baseline of 2019-20. For the measures of actual reliability for 2022-23, corresponding figures published in CalMac's strategic report were 95% and 97% respectively.

For Northlink, the level of contractual reliability of lifeline ferry services that were both punctual and reliable was 100% for both Aberdeen routes and the Pentland Firth in 2022-23. This is the same as the baseline position of 2019-20. Figures quoted by Northlink Ferries performance monitoring report on actual reliability and punctuality for 2022-23 are 97% and 90% respectively.

With regard to reasons as to why people do not use bus and train services more than they do, there have been slight changes. In 2022, 10% of respondents to the Scottish Household Survey who used the bus infrequently mentioned ‘lack of service’ as a reason, a slight increase on the baseline position (8%). As in 2019, this issue was more pronounced for those in rural areas (24%) compared to those in urban areas (6%).

‘No direct route’ was given as a reason by 4% of respondents, a decrease on the baseline position of 7%. This again was more prevalent for those in rural areas (6%) compared to those in urban areas (4%).

In 2023, 12% of Scottish Household Survey respondents who used the train infrequently mentioned ‘no nearby station’ as a reason. This is similar to the baseline position of 13%. Thirty-eight per cent of respondents in 2023 said that nothing had discouraged them from using the train more often. This is similar to the baseline position of 37%.

Improves our Health and Wellbeing

There have been 25% fewer overall road casualties in 2023, compared to 2019. These included:

• 3,703 slight injuries, 1,240 less that in 2019;
• 1,930 serious injuries, 455 less than in 2019; and
• 155 deaths – nine less than in 2019.

In 2023, perceptions of safety were higher during the day than in the evening. During the day, 95% of bus users agreed they felt safe and secure using the bus. By contrast, 70% agreed that they felt this way using the bus in the evening, while 11% disagreed. This is similar to the baseline position in 2019.

In 2023, among those who had used the train in the last month, 96% agreed that they felt safe and secure using the train during the day. By contrast, 80% agreed that they felt this way during the evening, while 8% disagreed. This is broadly similar to the baseline position though there has been in an increase in the proportion of people agreeing that they feel safe and secure using the train in the evening from 2019 (76%).

The proportion of journeys made for  leisure/recreation is higher than the baseline position. Looking at journeys by purpose in 2023, 33% of travel is for recreation/leisure, compared to 67% of travel that could be characterised as non-leisure. In 2019, 28% of travel was for recreation/leisure.

The latest data available (2021) on measures of air quality (NOx; PM10; PM2.5) all show a reduction from the baseline position. However, it should be noted that this may be as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic when road traffic levels were significantly affected over this period.

The following chapters consider each of the NTS priorities outcomes and report on the indicators within the Monitoring and Evaluation framework.