Appraisal Summary

Overview

The A96 Corridor Review has been undertaken following Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) principles. STAG is an objective-led approach to transport appraisal and is used when Scottish Government funding, support or approval is required for a change to the transport system. The transport appraisal has considered all transport modes including active travel modes, public transport (bus and rail) as well as road-based transport.

Undertaking a transport appraisal following STAG is a staged process, the first stage of which is the Case for Change. The A96 Corridor Review Case for Change was published in December 2022 and presents details of the problems and opportunities identified for the transport corridor, the development of the TPOs, and the generation, sifting and development of options.

The next stage of the process involved the multi-criteria appraisal of the options against the TPOs, the five STAG criteria and the accompanying sub-criteria, established policy objectives and deliverability criteria including feasibility, affordability and public acceptability.

The appraisal comprised two stages, the first being the Preliminary Appraisal that was a qualitative assessment of the options against the TPOs, STAG criteria, established policy objectives and deliverability criteria. Options that were considered to have a positive contribution in meeting the TPOs and STAG criteria, as well as aligning with established policies and strategies identified in the bespoke PAF tool and having no major identifiable issues in delivery, were retained to progress to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

The Detailed Appraisal built on the Preliminary Appraisal through more detailed quantitative outputs from a number of analytical tools including transport models and a bespoke public transport accessibility tool. The same assessment criteria as previously used in the Preliminary Appraisal was applied to the Detailed Appraisal.

This report presents the outcomes from the Preliminary and Detailed Appraisal stages of the options identified for the A96 Corridor Review.

Preliminary Appraisal

The A96 Corridor Review initially assessed 15 individual options as part of the Preliminary Appraisal stage. This included a range of options covering active travel, bus, rail and road-based transport modes.

Early in the Preliminary Appraisal process it was identified that the Active Hubs option would clearly align with, and sit within, STPR2 Recommendation 22 Framework for Delivery of Mobility Hubs. It was considered that STPR2 would be the most appropriate mechanism by which to progress this option at a national level.

The majority of the options performed positively across multiple TPOs and the STAG criteria and would also have positive contributions to the SIAs. In general, the active travel and public transport options would contribute positively across multiple criteria and appraisal metrics. These options are intended to promote a shift away from private vehicles to more sustainable forms of transport, with the resultant benefits including improved air quality, lower vehicle emissions, increased accessibility to key services and improved safety for transport users. The active travel options in particular would have moderate to major positive contributions against multiple TPOs, STAG criteria and SIAs.

The development of the A96 Electric Corridor also performs well against selected criteria. The provision of alternative fuel infrastructure and facilities along the transport corridor, including for both hydrogen and EV technologies, would help reduce the impacts of road-based transport on the environment.

Options requiring new transport infrastructure, such as rail improvements, bypasses and targeted road safety improvements, would potentially impact on the Environment STAG criterion, particularly visual amenity, cultural heritage and biodiversity.

The provision of bypasses would, however, act as a key enabler for sustainable transport options to be implemented within communities and increase placemaking opportunities, and were therefore retained to progress to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Of the 14 options assessed in the Preliminary Appraisal, 13 were retained to progress to Detailed Appraisal. As noted previously, the option for A96 Full Dualling has been assessed as part of the Detailed Appraisal.

The option for Improved Parking Provision at Railway Stations was not taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage as its performance against the TPOs, STAG criteria and SIAs was considered marginal. It was considered to have the potential to encourage increased car use to access rail stations, and therefore would have negative impact against a number of the TPOs and the Equality and Accessibility STAG criterion.

Detailed Appraisal

For the Detailed Appraisal, a series of multimodal ‘packages’ were developed from the options that progressed from the Preliminary Appraisal. An ‘area based’ approach to combine options together was adopted to develop multimodal packages to suit the varying needs along the transport corridor.

A fifth package was developed as the detailed appraisal progressed. This package comprised all of the options that progressed from the Preliminary Appraisal to create an ‘all in’ package across the corridor.

As a result, five packages were initially considered in the Detailed Appraisal stage. These were appraised along with the A96 Full Dualling option, progressed as the Scottish Government’s current plan, and having already been the subject of the appraisal undertaken in 2014 that established the Inverness to Aberdeen Corridor Study A96 Dualling Inverness to Aberdeen Strategic Business Case.

Whilst the A96 Full Dualling would result in significant negative environmental impacts, it is anticipated to provide the greatest benefits for safety and resilience, whilst also improving journey times and journey time reliability that would benefit the local and wider economy. The consistent provision of overtaking opportunities would provide a safer route and the route alignment would bypass towns along the existing road, removing conflict between longer distance and local traffic. It would also provide a level of resilience in the case of closures, benefitting HGVs and the movement of goods to develop the local economy and provide opportunities for business growth.

The five packages each demonstrate positive contributions to the majority of the A96 Corridor Review TPOs, STAG criteria and SIAs. Each package would provide localised benefits to the area types targeted along the A96 corridor (whether this be a town, settlement or rural area) and also contain corridor-wide interventions that would provide a level of benefit throughout the wider region.

Package 1 would deliver moderate benefits in terms of contributing to the Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1), improving accessibility to public transport (TPO2), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TPO3), and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5). The removal of longer distance trips within the towns would provide a safer network and facilitate the delivery of active travel and public transport improvements in towns. The package would also have moderate positive impacts in terms of equality and child rights and wellbeing.

Package 2 benefits are not as substantial as the package does not include bypasses, and Active Communities would only be introduced in smaller settlements along the A96 with lower populations, thus limiting the potential benefits on the wider network and area. As such, nearly all benefits under Package 2 are anticipated to be minor but the inclusion of Targeted Road Safety Interventions results in a moderate benefit for providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5). Benefits to accessibility would be felt locally in the settlements considered, along with measures to improve local air quality and reduce emissions.

Package 3 covering the rural areas captures smaller areas of population, as these are often underserved in regards of transport provision and infrastructure due to their rural nature, with smaller scale benefits as a result. Benefits for providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5) are anticipated to be moderate, predominantly due to the impacts of Targeted Road Safety Interventions, and the package would improve the accessibility towards key services, such as employment and hospitals, in larger towns and cities.

Package 4 mainly focuses on longer-distance movements between settlements along the A96, with a key intervention being a fully connected high quality active travel route between Inverness and Aberdeen travelling through settlements along the A96 corridor, and delivery of rail freight terminals to encourage more sustainable movement of goods. Moderate benefits are anticipated for contributing to the Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TPO3), and providing a safer and more resilient transport system (TPO5).

Package 5 combines all options within a single package. This package is expected to deliver a major benefit for contributing to the Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1) whilst also having moderate positive impacts on improving accessibility to public transport (TPO2), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TPO3), contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4), and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5). Both settlements and more rural areas along the length of the A96 corridor are anticipated to see benefits with improvements to active travel provision and public transport connectivity, interchange and reliability. The package would also seek to benefit movements between settlements along the A96, with key interventions being a fully connected, high quality active travel route and the delivery of rail freight terminals to encourage more sustainable movement of goods.

Overall, the packages aim to increase sustainable travel choices and improve safety. Each package has a range of relevant active travel and public transport options that would aim to reduce the reliance on private car for travel, particularly in rural areas and in smaller towns lacking key services such as hospitals, education facilities or extensive employment opportunities.

Safety improvements would be evident through road safety improvements or as a result of mode shift away from private car reducing traffic along the A96 corridor, or a combination of both.

The negative impacts of each package and the Full Dualling option are expected to primarily relate to the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria. The physical infrastructure required for some options within each package is anticipated to negatively impact environmental considerations such as biodiversity and habitats, landscape, water drainage and flooding, and geology and soils. In terms of climate change, the GHG emissions resulting from construction are expected to outweigh any reductions in road user GHG emissions in all packages and Full Dualling. However, a mode shift away from private car to more sustainable modes would help reduce road user GHG emissions particularly in the packages that do not include bypasses. Local air quality would also be improved through the bypassing of towns, as these would reduce impacts in settlements with the greatest population along the current A96 corridor.

As the option for Full Dualling would increase road capacity and allow for increased travel speeds this is anticipated to encourage more vehicles to travel on the network. Although it would be expected to reduce delay and congestion, the net impact on the environment and climate change is anticipated to be negative. The option is however expected to reduce driver frustration through the provision of consistent overtaking opportunities and provide significant safety benefits. Although Full Dualling would result in the largest increase in vehicle kilometres travelled, dual carriageway roads have lower accident rates compared with single carriageway roads.

Similarly, the provision of bypasses would also increase vehicle kilometres travelled although to a lesser degree than the option to fully dual the A96. However, bypassing key towns in combination with the active travel and public transport options would enable an increase in sustainable and active transport travel choices and placemaking within the bypassed towns. This would reduce reliance on travel by private car particularly for short trips within towns, partially offsetting the negative impacts effects of bypasses. Overall, the introduction of bypasses in conjunction with the active travel improvements would have a much lower impact on GHG emissions and environmental impacts than the Full Dualling option.

Refined Package Detailed Appraisal

Additional analysis has been undertaken to disaggregate the benefits of each package and identify the contribution that individual options would make to the overall performance of each package. The intention of this was to identify those options that provided the greatest contribution to the total benefits of the packages, and what proportion of the total estimated cost they would represent.

The assessment allowed the better performing options included in the Detailed Appraisal packages to be identified. These interventions were then combined to form an additional package, referred to as the Refined Package. This package was developed to maximise the level of potential benefits by combining the best performing options, whilst optimising investment within the corridor and delivering value for money.

The Refined Package performs well against the appraisal criteria and addresses the key problems and opportunities in the A96 corridor. The package of options targets investment to maximise the benefits within the corridor, with the range of options across all transport modes allowing an inclusive multimodal corridor approach to be considered.

The inclusion of Active Communities within the Refined Package at settlements throughout the A96 corridor would encourage modal shift for shorter everyday journeys, resulting in reduced emissions in each locality, and enhanced safety.

The Refined Package includes bypasses of Elgin and Keith, reducing traffic volumes and supporting modal shift within these towns. The bypasses would help to maximise the benefits associated with the Active Communities option at these locations, aiming to further reduce reliance on cars for trips within settlements through the provision of active travel infrastructure. The bypasses would also enhance journey time reliability for longer distance trips, removing conflicts with local movements within the towns, thus reducing real and perceived safety concerns.

The inclusion of Targeted Road Safety Improvements would help to reduce accidents at locations where the propensity for accidents to occur is greater, improving both real and perceived safety of the route. This would also improve the overall reliability of the route by reducing the level of disruption to road users and the local communities as a result of incidents. The types of measures associated with road safety improvements could also allow for additional overtaking opportunities, which should help contribute towards a reduction in driver frustration along the corridor.

Public transport benefits would be realised through the inclusion of the rail linespeed and capacity improvements, which would be complemented by the inclusion of DRT and MaaS and improved passenger interchange facilities. These options would increase the attractiveness of the public transport within the corridor, which would in turn encourage a shift to more sustainable modes of travel, resulting in a reduction in transport related emissions. DRT and MaaS would also have benefits in their own right, improving accessibility within the corridor for those without access to a car, and vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly. The inclusion of the A96 Electric Corridor would also facilitate decarbonisation of transport within the corridor and help reduce transport related emissions.

Overall, the Refined Package aims to increase sustainable travel choices and improve safety. It has a range of relevant active travel and public transport options that would aim to reduce reliance on the private car across the A96 corridor, both within communities and between them, particularly for access to key services such as hospitals, education facilities or extensive employment opportunities.

The Refined Package would deliver moderate benefits in terms of meeting the A96 Corridor Review TPOs for contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets (TPO1), enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment (TPO3) and providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5), as well as the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing, Economy and Equality and Accessibility criteria. The package would also have moderate positive impacts in terms of Equality and Child Rights and Wellbeing.

Nevertheless, the provision of bypasses and the potential increase in vehicle kilometres along with the new infrastructure requirements would negatively impact the environment. As the Refined Package only includes bypasses of Elgin and Keith, minor negative impacts are anticipated for the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria.

The Refined Package would provide a higher range of monetised benefits overall than the other packages that were developed, except Package 5 which has a slightly higher range of benefits in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario but at a higher cost. The majority of the TEE benefits for the Refined Package are derived from the rail improvements and the Elgin and Keith bypasses.

Overall the Refined Package performs well against all of the TPOs, STAG criteria and SIA criteria, whilst optimising investment within the corridor and delivering value for money.

Next Steps

Following publication of this draft Transport Appraisal Report, a consultation process will be undertaken to gather feedback from stakeholders and the public on the outcomes of the A96 Corridor Review. The consultation process will involve seeking the views of statutory consultees, wider stakeholders and the public on the assessment and findings set out in the Strategic Business Case - Summary of Main Report (Draft) ( https://www.transport.gov.scot/publication/strategic-business-case-summary-of-main-report-draft-a96-corridor-review/ ) and this draft Transport Appraisal Report.

The feedback received during the public consultation will assist the Scottish Ministers in making a final decision on the outcomes of the A96 Corridor Review.