Detailed Appraisal Outcomes

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for general traffic of approximately 2% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 3% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Increase in vehicle kilometres of approximately 8% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 10% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Modelling suggests that dualling could reduce traffic volumes on the current A96 in 2045 compared to a ‘without package’ scenario of approximately 55%-75% in Forres, 70%-80% in Keith, 45%-90% in Inverurie, and approximately 45%-60% in Elgin, with the range reflective of direction and the difference between the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 150,000 tCO2e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1,450,000 tCO2e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Less traffic in settlements results in an approximate one percentage point increase (where percentage point is the difference being two calculated percentages rather than the percentage difference between two absolute values) in walking and 1-4 percentage point increase in cycling across Moray and Aberdeenshire.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Negative

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for general traffic of approximately 4% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 2% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Very minor increase in vehicle kilometres of less than 1% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and approximately 1% in ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Modelling suggests a potential reduction in traffic volumes estimated on the current A96 in 2045 compared to a ‘without package’ scenario of approximately 35%-85% in Inverurie, 65%-85% in Keith, 60% in Forres, and 25%-35% in Elgin, with the range reflective of direction and the difference between the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 4,000 tCO2e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 110,000 tCO2e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Removal of through trips in settlements results in an approximate six percentage point increase in walking and 11-12 percentage point increase in cycling in bypassed settlements.

Development of A96 Electric Corridor assists the transition to cleaner vehicles to reduce tailpipe emissions.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for general traffic of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ scenario and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Very minor reduction in vehicle kilometres of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

No significant reductions in traffic volumes in communities along the A96 corridor.

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to decrease by approximately 1,200 tCO2e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 12,200 tCO2e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

The package results in an approximate 1-7 percentage point increase in walking and 11-12 percentage point increase in cycling in other settlements across Moray and Aberdeenshire through infrastructure improvements and delivery within settlements.

Potential for mode shift to public transport through improvement to bus, rail and interchanges.

Development of A96 Electric Corridor assists the transition to cleaner vehicles to reduce tailpipe emissions.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for general traffic of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ scenario and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Very minor reduction in vehicle kilometres of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

No significant reductions in traffic volumes in communities along the A96 corridor.

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to decrease by approximately 1,300 tCO2e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 10,800 tCO2e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

The package results in an approximate 1 percentage point increase in walking and 1-4 percentage point increase in cycling across rural Moray and Aberdeenshire through infrastructure improvements and delivery between settlements.

Potential for mode shift to public transport through improvement to bus, rail and interchanges.

Development of A96 Electric Corridor assists the transition to cleaner vehicles to reduce tailpipe emissions.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for general traffic of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ scenario and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Very minor reduction in vehicle kilometres of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

No significant reductions in traffic volumes in communities along the A96 corridor.

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to decrease by approximately 2,100 tCO2e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 14,100 tCO2e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

The package, including a long-distance active travel connection and improvements within key settlements, results in an approximate 1-7 percentage point increase in walking and 1-12 percentage point increase in cycling in settlements and rural areas across Moray and Aberdeenshire.

Potential for mode shift to public transport through improvement to bus, rail and interchanges.

Freight terminals also assist in delivering a mode shift for movement of goods from road to rail.

Development of A96 Electric Corridor assists the transition to cleaner vehicles to reduce tailpipe emissions.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for general traffic of approximately 2% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Very minor increase in vehicle kilometres of less than 1% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and approximately 1% in ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Modelling suggests a potential reduction in traffic volumes estimated on the current A96 in 2045 compared to a ‘without package’ scenario, of approximately 35%-85% in Inverurie, 65%-85% in Keith, 50%-60% in Forres, and 25%-35% in Elgin, with the range reflective of direction and the difference between the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 3,200 tCO2e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 101,400 tCO2e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

The package, including bypasses removing through trips from settlements and longer distance active travel connection and improvements within key settlements, results in an approximate 1-7 percentage point increase in walking and 1-12 percentage point increase in cycling in settlements along the A96 Trunk Road and rural areas across Moray and Aberdeenshire.

Potential for mode shift to public transport through improvement to bus, rail and interchanges.

Freight terminals also assist in delivering a mode shift for movement of goods from road to rail.

Development of A96 Electric Corridor assists the transition to cleaner vehicles to reduce tailpipe emissions.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

May improve journey times of public transport due to congestion reduction in towns.

Not likely to have a direct impact on the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in rural areas.

Additional capacity could encourage more car trips rather than public transport use.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: No Benefit or Impact

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: No Benefit or Impact

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 3.3 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport.

NaPTAT suggests that many of the benefits from the package are attributed to rail improvements. This is more prominent in settlements with access to a rail station and particularly in rural settlements such as Insch and Huntly, observing a travel time reduction of up to five and seven minutes, respectively, to Aberdeen.

The package would enable 9,600 additional people to access Aberdeen from Elgin within two hours by public transport, with most of the benefits attributed to the rail improvements in isolation, contributing around 40-50%.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many in areas and settlements where public transport services are often infrequent or not currently provided.

Active travel improvements in bypassed towns can improve accessibility to key transport interchanges such as bus and rail stations.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 2.7 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport.

NaPTAT suggests that many of the benefits from the package are attributed to rail improvements. This is more prominent in settlements with access to a rail station and particularly in rural settlements such as Insch and Huntly, observing a travel time reduction of up to five and seven minutes, respectively, to Aberdeen.

The package enables 9,600 additional people to access Aberdeen from Elgin within two hours by public transport, with most of the benefits attributed to the rail improvements in isolation contributing around 40-50%.

DRT and MaaS solutions would increase accessibility to employment, education, healthcare and leisure activities, particularly for those with reduced mobility or additional mobility needs.

Active travel improvements in settlements can enhance connections to public transport options.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 1.5 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to higher education within 60 mins by public transport.

NaPTAT suggests that many of the benefits from the package are attributed to rail improvements. This is more prominent in settlements with access to a rail station and particularly in rural settlements such as Insch and Huntly, observing a travel time reduction of up to five and seven minutes, respectively, to Aberdeen.

The absence of Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Improvements is anticipated to result in fewer journey time reductions within settlements along the corridor compared to other packages.

DRT and MaaS solutions would increase accessibility to employment, education, healthcare and leisure activities, particularly for those with reduced mobility or additional mobility needs.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 1.4 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to higher education within 60 mins by public transport.

NaPTAT suggests that many of the benefits from the package are attributed to rail improvements. This is more prominent in settlements with access to a rail station and particularly in rural settlements such as Insch and Huntly, observing a travel time reduction of up to five and seven minutes, respectively, to Aberdeen.

The package enables 9,600 additional people to access Aberdeen from Elgin within two hours by public transport, with most of the benefits attributed to the rail improvements.

The absence of bus priority measures is anticipated to result in fewer journey time reductions in settlements with access to bus provision, such as Inverurie.

Active travel improvements in and between settlements can enhance connections to public transport options.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 3.3 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport.

NaPTAT suggests that many of the benefits from the package are attributed to rail improvements. This is more prominent in settlements with access to a rail station and particularly in rural settlements such as Insch and Huntly, observing a travel time reduction of up to five and seven minutes, respectively, to Aberdeen.

The package enables 9,600 additional people to access Aberdeen from Elgin within two hours by public transport, with most of the benefits attributed to the rail improvements in isolation, contributing around 40-50%.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many in areas and settlements where public transport services are often infrequent or not currently provided.

Active travel improvements in bypassed towns and connections between settlements can improve accessibility to key transport interchanges such as bus and rail stations.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Route alignment would result in provision of bypasses that would reduce traffic in settlements.

As a result of the dualling route bypassing Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie, traffic would be reduced in 2045 on the current A96 by between 45%-90% in comparison to a ’without package’ scenario, depending on location, direction and whether it is subject to the ‘With Policy’ or ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Minimal traffic impacts anticipated on the local road network in Forres and Inverurie as the A96 does not pass through the centre of the towns.

Less traffic in settlements results in an approximate 1 percentage point increase in walking and 1-4 percentage point increase in cycling across Moray and Aberdeenshire.

Increased active travel estimated to reduce premature deaths by 0.06 a year, an economic benefit of £1m-£2m over a 20-year appraisal period.

The overall scale of the required infrastructure and the necessary land take outwith the extents of the existing A96 carriageway boundaries has the potential to have significant adverse effects on the natural environment.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Bypasses would reduce traffic in settlements.

Bypasses of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie would reduce traffic in 2045 on the current A96 by between 25%-85% compared to a ‘without package’ scenario, depending on location, direction and whether it is subject to the ‘With Policy’ or ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Minimal traffic impacts anticipated on the local road network in Forres and Inverurie as the A96 does not pass through the centre of the towns.

Removal of through trips in settlements results in an approximate 6 percentage point increase in walking and 11-12 percentage point increase in cycling in bypassed settlements.

Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 2.13 a year, an economic benefit of £50-£60m over a 20-year appraisal period.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

The package results in an approximate 1-7 percentage point increase in walking and 11-12 percentage point increase in cycling in other settlements across Moray and Aberdeenshire through infrastructure improvements and delivery within settlements.

Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 0.60 a year, an economic benefit of £10m-£15m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Active travel and public transport improvements, especially improved rail linespeed and capacity, alongside DRT and MaaS can improve access to health and wellbeing facilities.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

The package results in an approximate 1 percentage point increase in walking and 1-4 percentage point increase in cycling across rural Moray and Aberdeenshire through infrastructure improvements and delivery between settlements.

Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 0.06 a year, an economic benefit of £1m-£2m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Improving public transport connectivity, supported by DRT and MaaS, could reduce social isolation, enhancing locations as attractive places to live and improving the wellbeing of those living in these locations with better access to healthcare.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

The package, including a long-distance active travel connection and improvements within key settlements, results in an approximate 1-7 percentage point increase in walking and 1-12 percentage point increase in cycling in settlements and rural areas across Moray and Aberdeenshire.

Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 1.31 a year, an economic benefit of £30m-£40m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Active travel infrastructure is anticipated to reduce severance within communities, create a better sense of place through increased levels of activity, and improve the feeling of connectivity between settlements along the A96 corridor.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Bypasses would reduce traffic in settlements.

Bypasses of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie would reduce traffic in 2045 on the current A96 by between 25%-85% compared to a ‘without package’ scenario, depending on location, direction and whether it is subject to the ‘With Policy’ or ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Minimal traffic impacts anticipated on the local road network in Forres and Inverurie as the A96 does not pass through the centre of the towns.

The package, including bypasses removing through trips from settlements and a long-distance active travel connection and improvements within key settlements, results in an approximate 1-7 percentage point increase in walking and 1-12 percentage point increase in cycling in settlements along the A96 Trunk Road and rural areas across Moray and Aberdeenshire.

Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 2.79 a year, an economic benefit of £60m-£70m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Improving public transport connectivity, supported by DRT and MaaS, could reduce social isolation, enhancing locations as attractive places to live and improving the wellbeing of those living in these locations with better access to healthcare.

Active travel infrastructure is anticipated to reduce severance within communities, create a better sense of place through increased levels of activity, and improve the feeling of connectivity between settlements along the A96 corridor.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 3% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and for general traffic of approximately 2% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 3% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles by approximately 3% and 4% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, and for general traffic of approximately 4% and 5% respectively.

Improved reliability for freight with fewer accidents anticipated and greater capacity to manage incidents.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 3% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 2% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, and for general traffic of approximately 4% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 2% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of approximately 3% and 2% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, and for general traffic of approximately 4% and 2% respectively.

Bypasses are likely to improve journey time reliability and facilitate the reallocation of road space, prioritising active modes to promote sustainable access to labour markets in bypassed towns.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that access to employment opportunities would improve in Aberdeenshire. This includes from Inverurie where on average, just under 10% more existing jobs located in Aberdeen City would be accessible by public transport within 60 minutes.

Increased rail capacity improves the reliability of freight movements and would encourage a mode shift from road to rail.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and for general traffic of less than 1% in both ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as well.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and for general traffic by less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as well.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that access to employment opportunities would improve in Aberdeenshire. This includes from Inverurie where on average, just under 10% more existing jobs located in Aberdeen City would be accessible by public transport within 60 minutes, and in more rural settlements such as Insch where on average an additional 8% of existing jobs located in Aberdeen City could be reached by public transport within 60 minutes.

Increased rail capacity improves the reliability of freight movements and would encourage a mode shift from road to rail.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and for general traffic of less than 1% in both ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as well.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and for general traffic by less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as well.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that access to employment opportunities would improve in Aberdeenshire. This includes from rural settlements such as Insch where on average an additional 8% of existing jobs located in Aberdeen City are able to be accessed by public transport within 60 minutes.

Increased rail capacity improves the reliability of freight movements and would encourage a mode shift from road to rail.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and for general traffic of less than 1% in both ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as well.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and for general traffic by less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as well.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that access to employment opportunities would improve in Aberdeenshire. This includes from Inverurie where on average an additional 4% of existing jobs located in Aberdeen City are able to be accessed by public transport within 60 minutes, and in rural settlements such as Insch where on average an additional 8% of existing jobs located in Aberdeen City could be reached.

Increased rail capacity and the creation of freight terminals improves the reliability of freight movements and would encourage a mode shift from road to rail.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 3% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, and for general traffic of approximately 2% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of approximately 3% and 1% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, and for general traffic of approximately 2% for both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

Bypasses are likely to improve journey time reliability and facilitate the reallocation of road space, prioritising active modes that can connect to the longer distance active travel connections, to promote sustainable access to labour markets in bypassed towns.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that access to employment opportunities would improve in Aberdeenshire. This includes from Inverurie where on average, just under 10% more existing jobs located in Aberdeen City would be accessible by public transport within 60 minutes.

Increased rail capacity and the creation of freight terminals improves the reliability of freight movements and would encourage a mode shift from road to rail.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Accident rates on dual carriageway are typically lower than single carriageway and there is anticipated to be an overall reduction in accidents despite the anticipated rise in overall vehicle kilometres travelled.

Estimated economic benefit of improved safety of £40m-£50m and £70m-£80m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, A96 Full Dualling is anticipated to reduce the number of casualties by approximately 970 in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and nearly 1,680 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including approximately 190 KSI casualties in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and just over 310 KSIs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period, A96 Full Dualling could save approximately 560 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 1,030 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

The additional carriageway in each direction provides resilience in the case of accidents and maintenance closures to reduce the need for diversions.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Major Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Major Positive

The provision of bypasses could reduce the accident rate for sections of the existing A96 which route through towns, with Forres and Keith noted as having higher PIA and KSI rates than the national average for equivalent Trunk A-Roads.

Estimated economic disbenefit for safety of the package of £0.5m-1.0m and £5m-£10m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively as the potential increase in vehicle kilometres through the introduction of four bypasses results in a net increase in total accidents.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, the package is anticipated to save approximately 44 PIAs but increase KSIs by 2 in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario, as well as increasing PIAs by approximately 37 and KSIs by 11 in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

Bypasses should provide enhanced resilience against road closures, and rail improvements including additional passing loops should improve the reliability of trains.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Targeted Road Safety Improvements would help reduce the accident rates and severities on the A96.

Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m and £15m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, the package is anticipated to save over 350 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and almost 500 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including more than 50 KSI casualties saved in both scenarios. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 300 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

Reduction in accidents likely to reduce road closures that affects the reliability and resilience of the road network.

Rail improvements including additional passing loops should improve the reliability of trains.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Targeted Road Safety Improvements would help reduce the accident rates and severities on the A96.

Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m and £15m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, the package is anticipated to save over 350 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and almost 500 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including approximately 50 and 70 KSI casualties respectively. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 300 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

Reduction in accidents likely to reduce road closures that affects the reliability and resilience of the road network.

Rail improvements including additional passing loops should improve the reliability of trains.

Direct active travel routes which offer uninterrupted journeys between settlements, with adequate safe crossing points, could significantly improve safety for all active travel users.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Targeted Road Safety Improvements would help reduce the accident rates and severities on the A96.

Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m and £15m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, the package is anticipated to save almost 400 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and almost 500 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including approximately 50 and 70 KSI casualties respectively. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 300 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

Reduction in accidents likely to reduce road closures that affects the reliability and resilience of the road network.

Rail improvements including additional passing loops should improve the reliability of trains.

Direct active travel routes which offer uninterrupted journeys between settlements, with adequate safe crossing points, could significantly improve safety for all active travel users.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

The provision of bypasses could reduce the accident rate for sections of the existing A96 which route through towns, with Forres and Keith noted as having higher PIA and KSI rates than the national average for equivalent Trunk A-Roads.

Bypasses should provide enhanced resilience against road closures, and rail improvements including additional passing loops should improve the reliability of trains.

Targeted Road Safety Improvements would help reduce the accident rates and severities on the A96.

Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, the package is anticipated to save almost 400 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and over 350 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including nearly 50 KSI casualties saved in both scenarios. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Reduction in accidents likely to reduce road closures that affects the reliability and resilience of the road network.

Direct active travel routes which offer uninterrupted journeys between settlements, with adequate safe crossing points, could significantly improve safety for all active travel users.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Where the dual carriageway creates a bypass, it can reduce noise and air quality impacts in settlements, particularly where the previous A96 runs through the centre of towns such as Elgin and Keith.

Anticipated increase in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for NO _x (94t and 821t respectively) and PM _2.5 (140t and 159t respectively) over the 60-year appraisal period.

Route alignment would result in the provision of bypasses that could reduce noise and air quality impacts in settlements.

Modelling suggests that dualling could reduce traffic volumes on the current A96 in 2045 by between 45%-90% in comparison to a ’without package’ scenario, depending on location, direction and whether it is subject to the ‘With Policy’ or ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Potentially significant negative impacts on environmental considerations such as Biodiversity and Habitats, Geology and Soils, Landscape and possibly Historical Environment.

Magnitude of any negative impact dependent on design, alignment and mitigation.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Major Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Major Negative

Bypasses can reduce noise and air quality impacts in settlements, particularly where the current A96 Trunk Road runs through the centre of towns such as Elgin and Keith.

Anticipated increase in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for NO _x (4t and 46t respectively) and PM _2.5 (4t and 19t respectively) over the 60-year appraisal period.

Modelling suggests a potential reduction in traffic volumes estimated on the current A96 in 2045 compared to a ‘without package’ scenario of approximately 35%-85% in Inverurie, 65%-85% in Keith, 60% in Forres, and 25%-35% in Elgin, with the range reflective of direction and the difference between the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Physical works on the road and rail network may have significant negative impacts on environmental considerations such as Biodiversity and Habitats, Geology and Soils, Landscape and possibly Historical Environment.

Potential negative impact dependent on design, alignment and mitigation.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Negative

Promotion of active travel in settlements and use of alternatively fuelled vehicles have the potential to have positive effects on air quality.

Anticipated reductions in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for NO _x (1t and 8t respectively) and PM _2.5 (2t and 3t respectively) over the 60-year appraisal period.

Physical works on the road and rail network may negatively impact environmental considerations such as Biodiversity and Habitats, Geology and Soils, Landscape and possibly Historical Environment.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

The inclusion of improved public transport infrastructure as well as continuous high-quality active travel connections would help improve air quality.

Anticipated reductions in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for NO _x (1t and 7t respectively) and PM _2.5 (2t and 2t respectively) over the 60-year appraisal period.

Physical works on the road, active travel and rail network through more rural sections of the corridor may negatively impact environmental considerations such as Biodiversity and Habitats, Geology and Soils, Landscape and possibly Historical Environment.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Promotion of active travel within and between settlements along with the use of alternatively fuelled vehicles have the potential to have positive effects on air quality.

Anticipated reductions in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for NO _x (2t and 12t respectively) and PM _2.5 (3t and 4t respectively) over the 60-year appraisal period.

Physical works on the road, active travel and rail network may negatively impact environmental considerations such as Biodiversity and Habitats, Geology and Soils, Landscape and possibly Historical Environment.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Bypasses can reduce noise and air quality impacts in settlements, particularly where the current A96 Trunk Road runs through the centre of towns such as Elgin and Keith.

Anticipated increases in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for NO _x (2t and 45t respectively) and PM _2.5 (2t and 17t respectively) over the 60-year appraisal period.

Modelling suggests a potential reduction in traffic volumes estimated on the current A96 in 2045 compared to a ‘without package’ scenario, of approximately 35%-85% in Inverurie, 65%-85% in Keith, 50%-60% in Forres, and 25%-35% in Elgin, with the range reflective of direction and the difference between the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Physical works on the road and rail network may have significant negative impacts on environmental considerations such as Biodiversity and Habitats, Geology and Soils, Landscape and possibly Historical Environment.

Potential negative impact dependent on design, alignment and mitigation.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Negative

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 150,000 tCO ₂ e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1,450,000 tCO ₂ e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

GHG emissions from construction estimated to contribute in the range of approximately 700,000 tCO­ ₂ e to 1,400,000 tCO­ ₂ e.

Estimated economic disbenefit for GHGs of £15m-£20m and £100m-£125m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Negative

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 4,000 tCO ₂ e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 110,000 tCO ₂ e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

GHG emissions from construction estimated to contribute in the range of approximately 140,000 tCO­ ₂ e to just over 280,000 tCO­ ₂ e.

Estimated economic disbenefit for GHGs of <£0.5m and £5m-£10m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to decrease by approximately 1,200 tCO ₂ e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 12,200 tCO ₂ e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

GHG emissions from construction estimated to contribute in the range of approximately 140,000 tCO­ ₂ e to just over 280,000 tCO­ ₂ e.

Estimated economic benefit for GHGs of <£0.5m and £0.5m-£1m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to decrease by approximately 1,300 tCO ₂ e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 10,800 tCO ₂ e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

GHG emissions from construction estimated to contribute in the range of approximately 140,000 tCO­ ₂ e to just over 280,000 tCO­ ₂ e.

Estimated economic benefit for GHGs of <£0.5m and £0.5m-£1m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to decrease by approximately 2,100 tCO ₂ e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 14,100 tCO ₂ e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

GHG emissions from construction estimated to contribute in the range of approximately 140,000 tCO­ ₂ e to just over 280,000 tCO­ ₂ e.

Estimated economic benefit for GHGs of <£0.5m and £1m-£5m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 3,200 tCO ₂ e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 100,400 tCO ₂ e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

GHG emissions from construction estimated to contribute in the range of approximately 280,000 tCO­ ₂ e to just over 700,000 tCO­ ₂ e.

Estimated economic disbenefit for GHGs of <£0.5m and £5m-£10m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

Increased active travel estimated to reduce premature deaths by 0.06 a year, an economic benefit of £1m-£2m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Estimated economic benefit of improved safety of £40m-£50m and £70m-£80m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, A96 Full Dualling is anticipated to reduce the number of casualties by approximately 970 in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and nearly 1,680 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including approximately 190 KSI casualties in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and just over 310 KSIs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 560 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 1,030 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

Potential significant negative impacts on visual amenity during construction and in operation.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Increased active travel estimated to reduce premature deaths by 2.13 a year, an economic benefit of £50m-£60m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Estimated economic disbenefit for safety of the package of £0.5m-£1.0m and £5m-£10m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively as the potential increase in vehicle kilometres through the introduction of four bypasses results in a net increase in total accidents.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, the package is anticipated to save approximately 44 PIAs but increase KSIs by two in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario, as well as increasing PIAs by approximately 37 and KSIs by 11 in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 3.3 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport. The improvements are anticipated in Aberdeen City (5,900 people), as a result of interchange interventions which would improve the connection between services, and in Aberdeenshire (6,200 people) and Moray (2,700 people), with a reduction in journey times observed in settlements such as Inverurie, Kintore, and Lossiemouth, which are likely linked to bus related improvements.

Enhanced placemaking bypassed settlements with less severance, along with DRT and MaaS and enhanced public transport interchange facilities all anticipated to benefit personal security.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Increased active travel estimated to reduce premature deaths by 0.60 a year, an economic benefit of £10m-£15m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m and £15m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, A96 Full Dualling anticipated to save over 350 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and almost 500 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including more than 50 KSI casualties saved in both scenarios. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 300 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 2.7 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport. The improvements are anticipated in Aberdeen City (5,900 people), as a result of interchange interventions which would improve the connection between services, and in Aberdeenshire (3,900 people) and Moray (2,300 people), with a reduction in journey times observed in settlements such as Inverurie, Kintore, and Elgin, which are likely linked to bus related improvements.

Enhanced placemaking with less severance, along with DRT and MaaS and enhanced public transport interchange facilities all anticipated to benefit personal security.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Increased active travel estimated to reduce premature deaths by 0.06 a year, an economic benefit of £1m-£2m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m and £15m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, A96 Full Dualling anticipated to save over 350 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and almost 500 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including approximately 50 and 70 KSI casualties respectively. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 300 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 1.3 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 45 mins by public transport. The improvements are anticipated in Aberdeenshire, with a reduction in journey times observed in Inverurie and surrounding settlements such as Oldmeldrum, which are likely linked to bus related improvements as it directly serves the nearest site.

More segregated and traffic-free routes, which include active travel provision across junctions and increase opportunities for safe crossings in rural areas, would address safety concerns and encourage further active travel trips.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 1.31 a year, an economic benefit of £30m-£40m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m and £15m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, A96 Full Dualling anticipated to save almost 400 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and nearly 500 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including approximately 50 and 70 KSI casualties respectively. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and over 300 PIAs in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

NaPTAT modelling indicates some journey time reductions by public transport to hospitals, including up to six minutes from Huntly to the nearest emergency department hospital, and up to 14 minutes from parts of Elgin to Raigmore hospital in Inverness.

Providing more segregated and traffic-free routes, which would improve active travel provision across junctions and increase opportunities for safe crossings in rural areas, would address safety concerns and encourage further active travel trips.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 2.79 a year, an economic benefit of £60m-£70m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Estimated economic disbenefit for safety of £10m-£15m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.

Over a 60-year appraisal period, A96 Full Dualling anticipated to save almost 400 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and over 350 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including nearly 50 KSI casualties saved in both scenarios. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 250 PIAs in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

NaPTAT modelling indicates a 3.3 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport. The improvements are anticipated in Aberdeen City (5,900 people), as a result of interchange interventions which would improve the connection between services, and in Aberdeenshire (6,200 people) and Moray (2,700 people), with a reduction in journey times observed in settlements such as Inverurie, Kintore, and Lossiemouth, which are likely linked to bus related improvements.

Enhanced placemaking, especially in bypassed settlements, with less severance alongside DRT and MaaS and enhanced public transport interchange facilities all anticipated to benefit personal security.

Providing more segregated and traffic-free routes, which would improve active travel provision across junctions and increase opportunities for safe crossings in rural areas, would address safety concerns and encourage further active travel trips.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 3% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of approximately 3% and 4% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Improved reliability for freight with fewer accidents anticipated and greater capacity to manage incidents.

Journey time savings accounts of a significant proportion of the TEE benefits.

The core present value of benefits, which included the benefits associated with Transport Economic Efficiencies (TEE), changes in GHGs and accident analysis, for A96 Full Dualling are forecast to be £300m-£350m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £350m-£400m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

HEAT analysis suggests the active travel component could deliver an economic benefit of up to £1m-£2m over a 20-year appraisal period.

WEIs for A96 Full Dualling are forecast to provide benefits of £70m-£80m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £120m-£130m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, with the majority of this benefit stemming from business agglomeration.

Driver frustration benefits from provision of consistent overtaking opportunities equate to approximately £200m-£250m under the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £300m-£350m under the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

The monetised benefits achieved are estimated to be significantly lower than the anticipated scheme cost.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 3% in the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and 2% in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of approximately 3% and 2% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Approximately half of the TEE benefits can be attributed to the rail linespeed and capacity improvements, with the combination of Elgin and Keith bypasses also providing significant benefits.

The core present value of benefits, which included the benefits associated with Transport Economic Efficiencies (TEE), changes in GHGs and accident analysis, for Package 1 are forecast to be £70m-£80m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £60m-£70m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

HEAT analysis suggests Active Communities would deliver an economic benefit of £50m-£60m over a 20-year appraisal period.

WEIs for Package 1 are forecast to provide benefits of £10m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £20m-£30m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, with the majority of this benefit stemming from business agglomeration.

Driver frustration benefits from provision of overtaking opportunities as part of Targeted Road Safety Improvements equate to approximately £30m-£40m under the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £40m-£50m under the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Rail linespeed and capacity improvements anticipated to reduce non-productive time spent travelling, and improve access to cities for opportunities for employment, education and other key services.

Freight benefits anticipated due to rail improvements increasing capacity and bypasses improving journey times and enhancing resilience in the case of road closures.

The monetised benefits achieved are estimated to be lower than the anticipated scheme cost.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

A large proportion of the TEE benefits can be attributed to the rail linespeed and capacity improvements.

The core present value of benefits, which included the benefits associated with Transport Economic Efficiencies (TEE), changes in GHGs and accident analysis, for Package 2 are forecast to be £60m-£70m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

HEAT analysis suggests Active Communities would deliver an economic benefit of £10m-£15m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Minor freight benefits anticipated due to rail improvements increasing capacity and accident reductions as a result of Targeted Road Safety Improvements.

The monetised benefits achieved are estimated to be lower than the anticipated scheme cost.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

A large proportion of the TEE benefits can be attributed to the rail linespeed and capacity improvements.

The core present value of benefits, which included the benefits associated with Transport Economic Efficiencies (TEE), changes in GHGs and accident analysis, for Package 3 are forecast to be £60m-£70m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

HEAT analysis suggests Active Connections would deliver an economic benefit of £1m-£2m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Minor freight benefits anticipated due to rail improvements increasing capacity and accident reductions as a result of Targeted Road Safety Improvements.

The monetised benefits achieved are estimated to be lower than the anticipated scheme cost.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of less than 1% in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

A large proportion of the TEE benefits can be attributed to the rail linespeed and capacity improvements.

The core present value of benefits, which included the benefits associated with Transport Economic Efficiencies (TEE), changes in GHGs and accident analysis, for Package 4 are forecast to be £60m-£70m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

HEAT analysis suggests Active Communities and Active Connections would deliver an economic benefit of £30m-£40m over a 20-year appraisal period.

Freight benefits anticipated due to rail improvements increasing capacity and inclusion of freight yards to facilitate a mode shift from road to rail.

Accident reductions as a result of Targeted Road Safety Improvements on the road network would improve the reliability of freight movements by road.

The monetised benefits achieved are estimated to be lower than the anticipated scheme cost.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 3% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Reduction in delay to business vehicles of approximately 3% and 1% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

Approximately half of the TEE benefits can be attributed to the rail linespeed and capacity improvements, with the combination of Elgin and Keith bypasses also providing significant benefits.

The core present value of benefits, which included the benefits associated with Transport Economic Efficiencies (TEE), changes in GHGs and accident analysis, for Package 5 are forecast to be £80m-£90m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

HEAT analysis suggests Active Communities would deliver an economic benefit of £60m-£70m over a 20-year appraisal period.

WEIs for Package 5 are forecast to provide benefits of £10m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £20m-£30m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, with the majority of this benefit stemming from business agglomeration.

Driver frustration benefits from provision of overtaking opportunities as part of Targeted Road Safety Improvements equate to approximately £30m-£40m under the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £40m-£50m under the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Rail linespeed and capacity improvements anticipated to reduce non-productive time spent travelling, and improve access to cities for opportunities for employment, education and other key services.

Freight benefits anticipated due to rail improvements increasing capacity and inclusion of freight yards to facilitate a mode shift from road to rail.

Accident reductions as a result of Targeted Road Safety Improvements on the road network would improve the reliability of freight movements by road.

The monetised benefits achieved are estimated to be considerably lower than the anticipated scheme cost.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Could improve bus journey times but unlikely to directly improve accessibility.

Would encourage placemaking in bypassed towns to make active travel more attractive.

Impacts on rural areas in particular are likely to be negligible.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: No Benefit or Impact

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: No Benefit or Impact

The package should improve comparative access and transport inclusivity for commonly disadvantaged groups, providing social and community benefits particularly to young people, older people and people with disabilities.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that this package would improve access to key destinations in the study area such as employment, health and education.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 4,000 people aged 65 and over as well as 3,400 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.

The package would enable on average an additional 3,100 existing jobs in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 and in areas categorised as geographically deprived.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users such as those with mobility impairments.

Improvements to active travel and public transport, particularly bus, reduces the impact of transport poverty.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

The package should improve comparative access and transport inclusivity for commonly disadvantaged groups, providing social and community benefits particularly to young people, older people and people with disabilities.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that this package would improve access to key destinations in the study area such as employment, health and education.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 3,100 people aged 65 and over as well as 2,500 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.

The package would enable on average an additional 2,700 existing jobs in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 and in areas categorised as geographically deprived.

DRT and MaaS can benefit those who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users such as those with mobility impairments.

Improvements to active travel and public transport, particularly bus, reduces the impact of transport poverty.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

The package should improve comparative access and transport inclusivity for commonly disadvantaged groups, providing social and community benefits particularly to young people, older people and people with disabilities.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that this package would improve access to key destinations in the study area such as employment, health and education.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to education, including 750 young people aged 16-24, to access the nearest higher education site within approximately 60 minutes by public transport.

The package would enable on average an additional 1,100 existing jobs in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 and in areas categorised as geographically deprived.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users such as those with mobility impairments.

Improvements to active travel and public transport, particularly bus, reduces the impact of transport poverty.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

The package should improve comparative access and transport inclusivity for commonly disadvantaged groups, providing social and community benefits particularly to young people, older people and people with disabilities.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that this package would improve access to key destinations in the study area such as employment, health and education.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to education, including 700 young people aged 16-24, to access the nearest higher education site within approximately 60 minutes by public transport.

The package would enable on average an additional 1,800 existing jobs in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 and in areas categorised as geographically deprived.

Improvements to active travel and public transport, particularly bus, reduces the impact of transport poverty.

A mode shift of freight to rail can improve public health by reducing emissions, though some localised traffic increases around the freight yards may be witnessed.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

The package should improve comparative access and transport inclusivity for commonly disadvantaged groups, providing social and community benefits particularly to young people, older people and people with disabilities.

NaPTAT modelling indicates that this package would improve access to key destinations in the study area such as employment, health and education.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 4,000 people aged 65 and over as well as 3,400 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.

The package would enable on average an additional 3,100 existing jobs in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 and in areas categorised as geographically deprived.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users such as those with mobility impairments.

Improvements to active travel and public transport, particularly bus, reduces the impact of transport poverty.

A mode shift of freight to rail can improve public health by reducing emissions, though some localised traffic increases around the freight yards may be witnessed.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Improved access to employment, educational, health, and open space and leisure facilities for those in protected characteristic groups.

Benefits mainly felt by those who are reliant and have access to private vehicles.

Noise, vibration, air quality and traffic impacts are likely to improve within bypassed towns, but those close to the proposed dualling route would be negatively impacted.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Safer and affordable access to employment, education, shopping and health facilities through improved active travel and public transport for key communities along the A96.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 4,000 people aged 65 and over as well as 3,400 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.

Active travel and public transport improvements benefit those in transport poverty as well as vulnerable users including young people, older people and the mobility impaired.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users.

Bypasses can negatively impact noise, vibration, air quality and severance in bypassed towns, though the level of impact would be dependent on route alignment.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Safer and affordable access to employment, education, shopping and health facilities through improved active travel and public transport for key communities along the A96.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 3,100 people aged 65 and over as well as 2,500 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.

Active travel and public transport improvements benefit those in transport poverty as well as vulnerable users including young people, older people and the mobility impaired.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users.

Improved health outcomes as a result of better air quality are of particular benefit to those who are more vulnerable to air pollution, including children, older people and disabled people.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Safer and affordable access to employment, education, shopping and health facilities through improved active travel and public transport for key communities along the A96.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to education, including 750 young people aged 16-24, to access the nearest higher education site within approximately 60 minutes by public transport.

Active travel and public transport improvements benefit those in transport poverty as well as vulnerable users including young people, older people and the mobility impaired.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users.

An uptake in active travel may additionally improve physical health and mental wellbeing outcomes.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Safer and affordable access to employment, education, shopping and health facilities through improved active travel and public transport for key communities along the A96.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to education, including 700 young people aged 16-24, to access the nearest higher education site within approximately 60 minutes by public transport.

Active travel and public transport improvements benefit those in transport poverty as well as vulnerable users including young people, older people and the mobility impaired.

An uptake in active travel, especially over longer distances, may additionally improve physical health and mental wellbeing outcomes.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Safer and affordable access to employment, education, shopping and health facilities through improved active travel and public transport for key communities along the A96.

The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 4,000 people aged 65 and over as well as 3,400 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.

Active travel and public transport improvements benefit those in transport poverty as well as vulnerable users including young people, older people and the mobility impaired.

DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users.

Bypasses can positively impact noise, vibration, air quality and severance in bypassed towns, though the level of impact would be dependent on route alignment.

An uptake in active travel, especially over longer distances, may additionally improve physical health and mental wellbeing outcomes.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Dual carriageway could improve access to education for children and young people.

Noise, vibration, air quality and traffic impacts likely to be better in bypassed towns, but negatively impact those close to the proposed dualling route.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Noise, vibration, air quality and traffic impacts likely to be better in bypassed towns, but negatively impact those close to the proposed new roads.

Public transport improvements can benefit young people both for social and leisure trips as well as access to school and education. Improved journey time accessibility of educational premises would largely be observed in Aberdeenshire, where an additional 1,000 young people aged 16-24 would be able to access their nearest higher education site within approximately 60 minutes by public transport.

Potential local air quality benefits in bypassed towns if levels of active travel increase along with a reduction in vehicles and congestion.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Public transport improvements can benefit young people both for social and leisure trips as well as access to school and education. Improved journey time accessibility of educational premises would largely be observed in Aberdeenshire, where an additional 900 young people aged 16-24 would be able to access their nearest higher education site in approximately 60 minutes using public transport.

DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for children and young people, improving access to key services such as education.

Improved health outcomes as a result of better air quality are of particular benefit to those who are more vulnerable to air pollution, including children and young people.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Public transport improvements can benefit young people both for social and leisure trips as well as access to school and education. Improved journey time accessibility of educational premises would largely be observed in Aberdeenshire, where an additional 750 young people aged 16-24 would be able to access their nearest higher education site in approximately 60 minutes using public transport.

DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for children and young people, improving access to key services such as education.

Improved health outcomes as a result of better air quality are of particular benefit to those who are more vulnerable to air pollution, including children and young people.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Public transport improvements can benefit young people both for social and leisure trips as well as access to school and education. Improved journey time accessibility of educational premises would largely be observed in Aberdeenshire, where an additional 700 young people aged 16-24 are expected to access their nearest higher education site in approximately 60 minutes or less by public transport.

Improved health outcomes as a result of better air quality are of particular benefit to those who are more vulnerable to air pollution, including children and young people.

Rail freight terminals could lead to decreased local traffic, reducing the air quality and traffic impact on children.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Noise, vibration, air quality and traffic impacts likely to be better in bypassed towns, but negatively impact those close to the proposed new roads.

Improved health outcomes as a result of better air quality, including in bypassed towns with a reduction in through traffic, are of particular benefit to those who are more vulnerable to air pollution, including children and young people.

Public transport improvements can benefit young people both for social and leisure trips as well as access to school and education. Improved journey time accessibility of educational premises would largely be observed in Aberdeenshire, where an additional 1,000 young people aged 16-24 are expected to access their nearest higher education site in approximately 60 minutes by public transport.

DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for children and young people, improving access to key services such as education.

Rail freight terminals could lead to decreased local traffic, reducing the air quality and traffic impact on children.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

Increased opportunities for those from socio-economically disadvantaged groups to places of employment and education.

Better journey times and journey time reliability would provide more economical and efficient journeys.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduced traffic within the bypassed towns should create benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups by improving the active travel environment for those who are unable to afford a car.

Including active travel interventions could aid the removal of barriers in communities through an improved sense of road safety and security for those walking, wheeling and cycling.

Public transport improvements can greatly reduce social isolation and improve health and wellbeing for those who do not have access to a car. The package would improve the access to employment opportunities enabling on average additional 3,100 existing jobs located in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from geographically deprived areas in Aberdeenshire.

Better journey times and journey time reliability would provide more economical and efficient journeys by road.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Including active travel interventions alongside targeted safety improvements could aid the removal of barriers in communities through an improved sense of road safety and security for those walking, wheeling and cycling.

Public transport improvements can greatly reduce social isolation and improve health and wellbeing for those who do not have access to a car. The package would enable on average an additional 2,700 existing jobs in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 and in areas categorised as geographically deprived.

DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for many social groups including young people, older people and the disabled, though could exclude those without access to this technology or a bank account.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Including active travel interventions alongside targeted safety improvements could aid the removal of barriers in communities through an improved sense of road safety and security for those walking, wheeling and cycling.

Public transport improvements can greatly reduce social isolation and improve health and wellbeing for those who do not have access to a car. The package would improve the access to employment opportunities enabling on average an additional 1,700 existing jobs to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 who reside in areas where the gross household income is within the 20% lowest in the study area.

DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for many social groups including young people, older people and the disabled, though could exclude those without access to this technology or a bank account.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Including active travel interventions alongside targeted safety improvements could aid the removal of barriers in communities through an improved sense of road safety and security for those walking, wheeling and cycling.

Public transport improvements can greatly reduce social isolation and improve health and wellbeing for those who do not have access to a car. The package would improve the access to employment opportunities enabling on average an additional 2,900 existing jobs to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 who reside in areas where the gross household income is within the 20% lowest in the study area.

The provision of rail freight terminals is expected to enhance economic growth and private sector investment, thereby creating employment opportunities and potentially reducing socio-economic disadvantage.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

Reduced traffic within the bypassed towns should create benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups by improving the active travel environment for those who are unable to afford a car.

Including active travel interventions alongside targeted safety improvements could aid the removal of barriers in communities through an improved sense of road safety and security for those walking, wheeling and cycling.

Public transport improvements can greatly reduce social isolation and improve health and wellbeing for those who do not have access to a car. The package would improve the access to employment opportunities enabling on average additional 3,100 existing jobs located in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from geographically deprived areas in Aberdeenshire.

DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for many social groups including young people, older people and the disabled, though could exclude those without access to this technology or a bank account.

The provision of rail freight terminals is expected to enhance economic growth and private sector investment, thereby creating employment opportunities and potentially reducing socio-economic disadvantage.

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

A96 Full Dualling under ‘With Policy’ Scenario

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0

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A96 Full Dualling under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario

- -

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- - -

- -

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Package 1 under ‘With Policy’ Scenario

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Package 1 under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario

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Package 2 under ‘With Policy’ Scenario

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Package 2 under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario

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Package 3 under ‘With Policy’ Scenario

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Package 3 under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario

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Package 4 under ‘With Policy’ Scenario

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Package 4 under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario

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Package 5 under ‘With Policy’ Scenario

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- -

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Package 5 under ‘Without Policy’ Scenario

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Active Communities

Yes

Would help to drive modal shift, contributing to net zero and placemaking in communities, supporting health and wellbeing and therefore positively contributing to multiple TPOs and STAG criteria. The option also provides significant benefits in reducing premature deaths, contributing £60m-£70m in benefits over a 20-year appraisal period.

Active Connections

No

Whilst there are likely to be some health-related benefits associated with the option, the distance between the towns and limited population catchment area means the likely increase in active travel usage following the inclusion of the intervention is considered very limited. HEAT benefits for Active Connections would be between approximately £1m-£5m over a 20-year appraisal period, which equates to a very small proportion of the Active Communities benefits. The contribution to the overall performance is therefore minimal and was not considered to provide a sufficiently acceptable return on the potential level of investment required.

Bus Priority Measures

No

The types and locations of bus priority measures were further developed during the detailed appraisal stage and resulted in proposed measures on the approaches to Aberdeen and Inverness and around the Port Elphinstone Junction at Inverurie. Whilst the NaPTAT assessment indicates that the bus priority measures would improve access to key services within the corridor, any benefits are predominantly located around Inverurie and on approach to Aberdeen. Bus priority and active travel measures within Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen City are already being assessed via a separate study, the A96 Inverurie to Aberdeen Multi-Modal Transport Study. The anticipated level of benefits on approach to Inverness are expected to be limited as bus priority measures would be constrained by a combination of geographical features, existing developments and structures on approach to the A9/A96 Raigmore Interchange.

Separately, park and ride was examined for Elgin, but the population size and hence potential demand was not considered of sufficient ‘critical mass’ to make park and ride viable. In addition, there is restricted opportunity for any accompanying priority measures to be implemented on the A96 within Elgin.

Improved Public Transport Passenger Interchange Facilities

Yes

The option would enhance public transport connections including with the rail network, allowing a wider population to take advantage of the potential linespeed enhancements. This would result in TEE benefits and encourage a modal shift away from car, whilst improving accessibility of the public transport network, contributing to a number of the TPOs and STAG criteria.

Investment in DRT and MaaS

Yes

The option would provide key accessibility benefits, particularly for vulnerable groups with limited transport options. It would also enhance connections with the wider public transport network including rail, allowing a wider population to take advantage of the potential linespeed enhancements. This would further encourage a modal shift away from car. The option provides a positive contribution to a number of the TPOs and STAG criteria.

Introduction of Rail Freight Terminals

No

Although the option is anticipated to encourage a mode shift from road to rail, resulting in minor positive benefits to many of the TPOs, STAG criteria and SIAs, the level of benefits are likely to be tempered by the available rail freight paths on the Aberdeen to Inverness line. It is also considered that the option would result in a minimal reduction of HGVs on the A96.

There is also a degree of overlap between this intervention and the Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements intervention, which includes making use of existing, disused facilities with Huntly likely to be most suitable for conversion to an intermodal facility.

It is noted that STPR2 recommendation 44 ‘Rail freight terminals and facilities’ recommends the need for a market study as a first step, but based on the evidence available at this stage it has not been included in the Refined Package.

Linespeed, Passenger and Freight Capacity Improvements on the Aberdeen to Inverness Rail Line

Yes

The option is anticipated to contribute to over 50% of the TEE benefits, equating to between £40m-£50m for both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and make a significant contribution to improving accessibility to key services from settlements that contain a rail station. Modelling this intervention in isolation indicates that it contributes approximately 50%-60% of the public transport accessibility benefits associated with the larger towns such as Elgin and Inverurie. In the smaller settlements such as Insch, Huntly and Forres it provides an even greater proportion of accessibility benefits as these settlements have fewer alternative public transport options.

Targeted Road Safety Improvements

Yes

The option covers a range of potential measures ranging from minor improvements through to partial dualling and is anticipated to result in safety benefits of approximately £10m-£15m under the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £15m-£20m under the ‘Without Policy’ scenario. This intervention would target the areas of the network where there is a known or perceived safety issue to reduce the potential for accidents on the route. This would result in a significant positive contribution to TPO5 and the STAG Safety criterion in particular, with the reduction in accidents also enhancing the reliability of the route.

Forres Bypass

No

The bypass would remove a proportion of through traffic from the existing A96 Trunk Road, but as this does not pass directly through Forres town centre, traffic volumes on local roads through the town are forecast to remain largely unchanged following the introduction of the bypass. Economic benefits are minimal and it would not maximise opportunities for active travel within Forres itself, with little contribution to placemaking.

Forres bypass was therefore not considered to provide a sufficiently acceptable return on the potential level of investment required.

Elgin Bypass

Yes

The bypass would remove a significant proportion of through traffic from the town, enhancing safety and providing air quality benefits whilst also adding a level of reliability and resilience to the network. The bypass would also facilitate the Active Communities measures in the town for further localised benefits. Elgin and Keith bypasses in combination would contribute to a significant proportion of the TEE benefits, approximately £20m-£25m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £25m-£30m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Keith Bypass

Yes

The bypass would remove a significant proportion of through traffic from the town, enhancing safety where there is a known safety problem and providing air quality benefits whilst also adding a level of reliability and resilience to the network. The bypass would also facilitate the Active Communities measures in the town for further localised benefits. Elgin and Keith bypasses in combination contribute to a significant proportion of the TEE benefits, approximately £20m-£25m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £25m-£30m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.

Inverurie Bypass

No

The bypass would remove a proportion of traffic from the existing A96 Trunk Road, but as this does not pass directly through Inverurie town centre, traffic volumes on local roads through the town are forecast to remain relatively unchanged following the introduction of the bypass. Economic benefits are minimal and it would not maximise opportunities for active travel within Inverurie itself, with little contribution to placemaking.

Inverurie bypass was therefore not considered to provide a sufficiently acceptable return on the potential level of investment required.

A96 Electric Corridor

Yes

The A96 Electric Corridor would seek to support the rapid decarbonisation of the transport sector, ensuring sufficient flexibility to accommodate the varying needs of transport users and local communities in the corridor whilst improving local and global air quality. It would therefore contribute significantly to a number of the TPOs as well as the STAG Climate Change criterion.

TPO1 – A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• Reduction in time lost due to congestion for general traffic of approximately 2% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• Very minor increase in vehicle kilometres of less than 1% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and approximately 1% in ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• Modelling indicates a potential reduction in traffic volumes estimated on the current A96 in 2045 compared to a ‘without package’ scenario of approximately 65%-85% in Keith and 25%-35% in Elgin, with the range reflective of direction and the difference between the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 2,300 tCO2e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 88,000 tCO2e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• The package, including bypasses removing through trips from settlements, results in an approximate 5-7 percentage point increase in walking and 11-12 percentage point increase in cycling in settlements along the A96 Trunk Road and rural areas across Moray and Aberdeenshire.
• Potential for mode shift to public transport through improvement to bus, rail and interchanges.
• Development of A96 Electric Corridor assists the transition to cleaner vehicles to reduce tailpipe emissions.

TPO2 – An inclusive strategic transport corridor that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment and education

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

• NaPTAT modelling indicates a 1.8 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport.
• NaPTAT indicates that many of the benefits from the package are attributed to rail improvements. This is more prominent in settlements with access to a rail station and particularly in rural settlements such as Insch and Huntly, observing a travel time reduction of up to five and seven minutes, respectively, to Aberdeen.
• The package would enable 8,700 additional people to access Aberdeen from Elgin within two hours, with most of the benefits attributed to the rail improvements in isolation, contributing around 40-50%.
• The absence of bus priority measures is anticipated to result in fewer journey time reductions in settlements with access to bus provision, such as Inverurie.
• DRT and MaaS can benefit many in areas and settlements where public transport services are often infrequent or not currently provided.
• Active travel improvements in bypassed towns can improve accessibility to key transport interchanges such as bus and rail stations.

TPO3 – A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health, wellbeing and the environment

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• Bypasses would reduce traffic volumes in both Elgin and Keith by approximately 25%-35% and 65%-85% respectively.
• The package, including bypasses removing through trips from settlements within Elgin and Keith, results in an approximate 5-7 percentage point increase in walking and 11-12 percentage point increase in cycling in settlements along the A96 Trunk Road and rural areas across Moray and Aberdeenshire.
• Increased levels of active travel are estimated to reduce premature deaths by 2.75 a year, an economic benefit of £60m-£70m over a 20-year appraisal period.
• Active travel infrastructure is anticipated to reduce severance within communities and create a better sense of place through increased levels of activity.
• Improving rail connectivity, supported by DRT and MaaS and improvements to interchange facilities, could reduce social isolation, enhancing locations as attractive places to live and improving the wellbeing of those living in these locations with better access to healthcare.

TPO4 – An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

• Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 2% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, with the same reductions for general traffic in both scenarios as well.
• Reduction in delay to business vehicles of approximately 2% and 1% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, with the same reductions for general traffic in both scenarios as well.
• Bypasses are likely to improve journey time reliability and facilitate the reallocation of road space, prioritising active modes to promote sustainable access to labour markets in bypassed towns.
• NaPTAT modelling indicates that access to employment opportunities would improve in Aberdeenshire. This includes from rural settlements with access to a rail station such as Insch where on average an additional 8% of existing jobs located in Aberdeen City are able to be accessed by public transport within 60 minutes.
• Increased rail capacity improves the reliability of freight movements and would encourage a mode shift from road to rail.

TPO5 – A reliable and resilient strategic transport system that is safe for users

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• The provision of bypasses could reduce the accident rate on the sections of the existing A96 which route through towns, with Keith in particular noted as having high PIA and KSI rates.
• Bypasses should also provide enhanced resilience against road closures.
• Targeted Road Safety Improvements would also reduce the accident rates and severities on the A96.
• Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.
• Over a 60-year appraisal period, the Refined Package is anticipated to save over 400 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and nearly 450 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including over 50 KSI casualties in both scenarios. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 300 PIAs in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• Reduction in accidents likely to reduce road closures that affects the reliability and resilience of the road network.
• Rail improvements including additional passing loops should improve the reliability of trains.

STAG – Environment

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

• Bypasses can reduce noise and air quality impacts in Elgin and Keith where the current A96 Trunk Road runs through the centre of these towns.
• Anticipated increase in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for NO _x (2t and 43t respectively) and PM _2.5 (0.4t and 13t respectively) over the 60-year appraisal period.
• Physical works on the road and rail network may have significant negative impacts on environmental considerations such as Biodiversity and Habitats, Geology and Soils, Landscape and possibly Historical Environment.
• Potential negative impact dependent on design, alignment and mitigation.

STAG – Climate Change

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Negative

• Road user GHG emissions anticipated to increase by approximately 2,300 tCO ₂ e in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 88,000 tCO ₂ e in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• GHG emissions from construction estimated to contribute in the range of 140,000 tCO­ ₂ e to just over 280,000 tCO­ ₂ e.
• Estimated economic disbenefit for GHGs of <£0.5m and £5m-£10m in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.

STAG – Health, Safety and Wellbeing

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• Increased active travel estimated to reduce premature deaths by 2.75 a year, an economic benefit of £60m-£70m over a 20-year appraisal period.
• Estimated economic benefit for safety of £10m-£15m in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively, including the estimated change in vehicle kilometres alongside an assessment of the Targeted Road Safety Improvements throughout the A96 corridor.
• Over a 60-year appraisal period, the Refined Package is anticipated to save over 400 casualties in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and nearly 450 in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario over the ‘without package’ scenario, including over 50 KSI casualties in both scenarios. Similarly, over the same 60-year appraisal period the package could save approximately 300 PIAs in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• NaPTAT modelling indicates a 1.8 percentage point increase in accessibility levels to emergency department hospitals within 30 mins by public transport. The improvements are anticipated in Aberdeen City (5,900 people), as a result of interchange interventions which would improve the connection between services, and in Moray (2,300 people), with a reduction in journey times observed in surrounding settlements such as Lossiemouth.
• Enhanced placemaking in bypassed settlements with less severance, along with DRT and MaaS and enhanced public transport interchange facilities are all anticipated to benefit personal security.

STAG – Economy

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• Reduction in time lost due to congestion for business vehicles of approximately 2% in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and 1% in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• Reduction in delay to business vehicles by approximately 2% and 1% in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively.
• Approximately half of the TEE benefits stem from the rail linespeed and capacity improvements, with the combination of Elgin and Keith bypasses also providing significant benefits.
• The core present value of benefits, which included the benefits associated with Transport Economic Efficiencies (TEE), changes in GHGs and accident analysis, for the Refined Package are forecast to be £80m-£90m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £70m-£80m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• HEAT analysis indicates Active Communities would deliver an economic benefit of £60m-£70m over a 20-year appraisal period.
• WEIs for the Refined Package are forecast to provide benefits of £10m-£20m in the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £20m-£30m in the ‘Without Policy’ scenario, with the majority of this benefit stemming from business agglomeration.
• Driver frustration benefits from provision of overtaking opportunities as part of Targeted Road Safety Improvements equate to approximately £30m-£40m under the ‘With Policy’ scenario and £40m-£50m under the ‘Without Policy’ scenario.
• Accident reductions as a result of Targeted Road Safety Improvements on the road network would improve the reliability of freight movements by road.
• Rail linespeed and capacity improvements are also anticipated to reduce non-productive time spent travelling, and improve access to cities for opportunities for employment, education and other key services.
• The monetised benefits achieved are estimated to be lower than the anticipated scheme cost.

STAG – Equality and Accessibility

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• The package should improve comparative access and transport inclusivity for commonly disadvantaged groups, providing social and community benefits particularly to young people, older people and people with disabilities.
• NaPTAT modelling indicates that this package would improve access to key destinations in the study area such as employment, health and education.
• The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 2,100 people aged 65 and over as well as 1,900 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.
• The package would enable on average an additional 1,800 existing jobs in Aberdeen City to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 and in areas categorised as geographically deprived.
• DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users such as those with mobility impairments.
• Improvements to active travel and public transport, particularly bus, reduces the impact of transport poverty.

SIA – Equality Impact Assessment

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• Safer and affordable access to employment, education, shopping and health facilities through improved active travel and public transport for key communities along the A96.
• The package would benefit groups of people who may be more reliant on public transport to access health services, including 2,100 people aged 65 and over as well as 1,900 people across all age groups with a long-term health problem or disability, to access the nearest emergency department hospital within approximately 30 minutes by public transport.
• Active travel and public transport improvements benefit those in transport poverty as well as vulnerable users including young people, older people and the mobility impaired.
• DRT and MaaS can benefit many who cannot access current public transport services, including vulnerable users.
• Bypasses can positively impact noise, vibration, air quality and severance in bypassed towns, though the level of impact would be dependent on route alignment.
• An uptake in active travel may additionally improve physical health and mental wellbeing outcomes.

SIA – Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Moderate Positive

• Noise, vibration, air quality and traffic impacts likely to be better in bypassed towns, but negatively impact those close to the proposed new roads.
• Improved health outcomes as a result of better air quality, including in bypassed towns with a reduction in through traffic, are of particular benefit to those who are more vulnerable to air pollution, including children and young people.
• Rail and public transport interchange improvements can benefit young people both for social and leisure trips as well as access to school and education. Improved journey time accessibility of educational premises would largely be observed in Aberdeenshire, where an additional 550 young people aged 16-24 are expected to access their nearest higher education site in approximately 60 minutes by public transport.
• DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for children and young people, improving access to key services such as education.

SIA – Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment

‘With Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

‘Without Policy’ Scenario: Minor Positive

• Reduced traffic within the bypassed towns should create benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups by improving the active travel environment for those who are unable to afford a car.
• Including active travel interventions alongside targeted safety improvements could aid the removal of barriers in communities through an improved sense of road safety and security for those walking, wheeling and cycling.
• Public transport improvements for rail and interchange can greatly reduce social isolation and improve health and wellbeing for those who do not have access to a car. The package is also shown to improve the access to employment opportunities found in Aberdeen City, whereby it would enable on average an additional 3,800 existing jobs to be reached within 60 minutes using public transport from Aberdeenshire for people aged 16 to 64 who reside in areas where gross household income is within the 20% lowest in the study area.
• DRT and MaaS could help to improve connectivity for many social groups including young people, older people and the disabled, though could exclude those without access to this technology or a bank account.

Package 1

£501m - £1,000m

£70m - £80m

£60m - £70m

Package 2

£501m - £1,000m

£60m - £70m

£60m - £70m

Package 3

£501m - £1,000m

£60m - £70m

£60m - £70m

Package 4

£501m - £1,000m

£60m - £70m

£60m - £70m

Package 5

£1,001m - £2,500m

£80m - £90m

£80m - £90m

Refined Package

£501m - £1,000m

£80m - £90m

£70m - £80m

A96 Full Dualling

£2,501m - £5,000m

£300m - £350m

£350m - £400m

Package 1

£501m - £1,000m

£130m - £160m

£130m - £160m

Package 2

£501m - £1,000m

£100m - £125m

£110m - £135m

Package 3

£501m - £1,000m

£90m - £115m

£100m - £125m

Package 4

£501m - £1,000m

£120m - £150m

£130m - £160m

Package 5

£1,001m - £2,500m

£180m - £220m

£200m - £240m

Refined Package

£501m - £1,000m

£180m - £220m

£190m - £230m

A96 Full Dualling

£2,501m - £5,000m

£570m - £690m

£770m - £890m