Preliminary Appraisal Summary Table - Forres Bypass

Preliminary Appraisal Summary

Option Description

Forres Bypass

This option focuses on improving the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 Trunk Road in Forres through the provision of a bypass within the vicinity of the town. Forres is shown within the context of the wider A96 Trunk Road in Figure 1.1. Note that due to this being at an early stage of the process, the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) appraisal does not define the location, route or standard of the bypass.

The existing A96 Trunk Road passes the town of Forres to the north; however, industrial estates, Forres train station and other developments are located north of the A96 corridor. The A96 Trunk Road through Forres routes from the at-grade Greshop Industrial Estate Roundabout to the west, to the at-grade B9011 Findhorn Roundabout to the east, with one at-grade roundabout ( Nairn Road/West Road Roundabout) providing access to the developments to the north and the town itself. There are also three priority junctions that access the A96 Trunk Road through Forres, providing access to the train station and waste recycling centre to the north, and the town itself to the south.

The existing A96 Trunk Road through Forres is a 40mph single carriageway, approximately 7.3m wide for approximately 1km from the Greshop Industrial Estate Roundabout in the west, before changing to a wider carriageway with one lane in each direction separated by a wide grass central reservation for approximately 500m. The route then returns to a single carriageway with a national speed limit. There is continuous footway provision on the 40mph section on the south side of the carriageway; however, it is relatively narrow in places. On the north side of the carriageway there is footway provision for large proportions of the route but there are sections where the footway ends, requiring pedestrians to cross the carriageway, at-grade. The national speed limit section has no footway provision.

This option would help to improve the reliability and resilience of the A96 Trunk Road through reducing the impacts of accidents, particularly on the 40mph section of the route. This could support improved access to tourism sites and to employment opportunities, in addition to enhancing the efficiency of freight movements along the A96 corridor. This option could also address severance caused by the A96 bisecting the town, which separates developments and amenities such as the train station to the north, from the community to the south. Given the nature and location of the section of the A96 Trunk Road that would be bypassed, there would be limited direct opportunities to enhance placemaking or the active travel environment within the town.

Relevance

Relevant to all road users in the corridor

The A96 Trunk Road plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland. The provision of a bypass at Forres could enhance connectivity between certain origins and destinations within the wider region by bypassing the existing A96 at Forres. Depending on the route of the bypass, a reduction in the volume of traffic on the local roads that connect onto the existing A96 Trunk Road could improve the connectivity between surrounding towns and Forres. As such, a bypass within the vicinity of Forres could help bolster the regional economy by improving connectivity to the lucrative food and drink sector and help improve access to key industries local to Forres (such as wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and human health and social work activities ( NOMIS Official Census and Labour Market Statistics ) ), enabling economic growth to be realised. This option supports Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ) , which sets out the Scottish Government’s vision to creating a more successful country through a wellbeing economy, noting the requirement to thrive across the economic, social and environmental dimensions.

This option could support the reliability and resilience of the network for communities and businesses by potentially reducing the impact of accidents on the network. A high quality, well maintained and efficient trunk road network can also support other Scottish Government programmes for active travel, development of connected and autonomous vehicle infrastructure and bus priority investment, and thereby contributes to the low carbon economy.

Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ( Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ) sets out the vision for Scotland to have the best road safety performance in the world by 2030 and the long-term goal of Vision Zero ( Mission Zero for transport ) where there are zero fatalities and serious injuries on Scotland’s roads by 2050 with ambitious interim targets for the number of people killed or seriously injured to be halved by 2030. The framework is aligned with National Transport Strategy 2 (NTS2) and embeds the Safe System approach to road safety delivery, which consists of five key pillars focusing efforts not only on road traffic casualty reduction (vulnerability of the casualties) but also on road traffic danger reduction (sources of the danger).

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 Trunk Road is lower than the national average for similar road types; however, Personal Injury Accident (PIA) rates between 2015 and 2019 for the urban section of the A96 through Forres have been identified as higher than corresponding accident rates for Built-up Trunk A-roads in Scotland (12.1 per million vehicle kilometres (MVKm)) at 16.2 accidents per (MVKm) ( Reported Road Casualties Scotland: Table 6b Reported accident rates by severity and road class for built-up and non built-up roads rates per 100 million vehicle km ) . The Killed or Serious Injured (KSI) accident rate is significantly higher than the national average (2.6 per MVKm) for routes of a similar type at 8.1 accidents per MVKm. On the rural section, the PIA rate is significantly lower than the national average for Non-Built-Up Trunk A-roads, and the KSI rate is in line with these road types. As such, drivers are more likely to have an accident on the urban section of the A96 through Forres than on equivalent roads elsewhere in Scotland, and the accident is more likely to be a serious incident. The provision of a Forres bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic travelling along the existing A96 Trunk Road, which would reduce the conflict between local and longer distance traffic on the urban section of the A96 passing through Forres, potentially reducing the number and severity of accidents. As such, this option would contribute to Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 supporting Vision Zero.

Estimated Cost

£101m - £250m Capital

Determining the estimated cost of this option is dependent on a number of factors including the scale and complexity of the bypass and specific local constraints that would require further examination and assessment at the stages of design development, a level of detail beyond that which is undertaken as part of a STAG appraisal.

As a result, the STAG appraisal does not define the location or route of the bypass, although it has been assumed that the approximate length will range from 5km to 15km. The category of road for the bypass and the number and type of junctions have also not been defined at this stage.

Considering the assumed range for the approximate length of the bypass, the total estimated cost is expected to fall within the range of £101m - £250m.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the operation and maintenance of the bypass, which would have ongoing costs associated with it.

Position in Sustainable Hierarchies

Sustainable Investment Hierarchy / Sustainable Travel Hierarchy

Within the Sustainable Investment Hierarchy, this option sits within ‘targeted infrastructure improvements’. This option would also sit within the ‘private car’ tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy.

This option would also contribute to eight of the 12 NTS2 outcomes as follows:

• Provide fair access to services we need
• Help deliver our net zero target
• Adapt to the effects of climate change
• Get people and goods to where they need to get to
• Be reliable, efficient, and high quality
• Use beneficial innovation
• Be safe and secure for all
• Help make our communities great places to live.

Summary Rationale

Summary of Appraisal

This option makes a generally positive and neutral contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs), STAG criteria and Statutory Impact Assessment (SIA) criteria. Reducing the volumes of traffic within Forres through the provision of a bypass is anticipated to reduce the conflict between local and long distance traffic on the urban section of the A96, potentially reducing the number and severity of accidents which occur at junctions along this route. As such, the option is anticipated to have a moderate positive impact to the TPO5 for providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport network and the STAG Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion. However, it is expected that there would be negative impacts as a result from this option in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, specifically considering the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria.

Generally, the provision of a bypass would be expected to better connect residents to key amenities and employment opportunities through the removal of through traffic, with potential to improve the sense of place and opportunities to travel by active modes. However, the existing A96 does not pass directly through the town, therefore the degree of severance, and associated impact on community cohesion, resulting from the through traffic is relatively minor. Notwithstanding this, by reducing volumes of traffic through Forres, a bypass would likely offer some severance relief for residents accessing the train station, situated north of the A96, by walking, wheeling, or cycling, and therefore positively contributing to the TPO3 regarding enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment, and the STAG criterion for Equality and Accessibility.

However, it is expected that there would be negative impacts as a result from this option, specifically considering the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria. In the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario specifically, the option is also expected to have a minor negative impact against TPO1 regarding net zero targets. There is the potential for increases in congestion in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario in Forres itself, with the bypass then relieving at least some of this congestion and inducing further road-based travel, therefore increasing vehicle kilometres travelled. The impacts on Climate Change are also expected to be more severe in the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario (moderate negative) than the ‘With Policy’ Scenario (minor negative). Although the Forres bypass could remove some noise and air pollution from the town, the physical impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity, with an overall moderate negative impact expected for the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

Delivery of the bypass is considered feasible at this stage; however, a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Forres is considered to be affordable at this stage, capital costs are also highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. A reasonable level of support for the option from the public is anticipated due to the potential safety improvements and reliability benefits for through traffic.

Although the bypass as a standalone intervention does not perform particularly well against three of the TPOs and the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria, it could act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Forres.

It is recommended that this option is taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Details behind this summary are discussed in Section 3.

Context

Problems and Opportunities

This option could help to address the following problem and opportunity themes. Further detail on the identified problems and opportunities is provided in the published A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ) .

Relevant Problem and Opportunity Themes Identified in the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change

Safety and Resilience : From the analysis of accident data, the rural sections of the A96 Trunk Road have overall PIA rates lower than or similar to the national average based on all trunk A-roads of the equivalent type. There are, however, selected urban sections of the A96 Trunk Road that show an accident rate higher than the national average, with specific locations in Forres. The rate of KSIs is also significantly higher in Forres than the national average.

The A96 Trunk Road is affected by closures and delays due to accidents, maintenance and weather events. Recommended diversion routes can be lengthy throughout the corridor, up to approximately 65km depending on where the closure occurs. The economic impact of closures can be significant for HGVs and the movement of goods.

Health and Environment : Transport is a major contributor to CO ₂ emissions along the A96 corridor, particularly in the Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas. Transport contributes over 35% of the total emissions in both Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas and between 25% and 30% in Aberdeen City and Moray. This is potentially an outcome of the high dependence on cars for travel, long travel distances and the levels of road-based freight movements.

The route of the A96 travels through the centre of towns along the corridor such as Elgin and Keith, while also passing close to other town centres, which puts a relatively large proportion of the population in close proximity to potential noise pollution and pollutants from transport emissions that affect local air quality.

Sustainable Economic Growth: There is an opportunity to support and enhance sustainable economic growth across the transport appraisal study area. The key industries in the region, including food and drink production and agriculture, forestry and fishing have a high proportion of goods movement, as evidenced through the relatively high proportion of HGVs on the A96. A shift to alternative sustainable transport modes could improve journey time reliability, resulting in economic and environmental benefits, with trials being undertaken in recent years to increase the proportion of rail freight movements.

The transport appraisal study area has shown growth in tourism spend in recent years with the rise of whisky tourism and the Speyside Whisky Trail a major component of the economy in this sector. There are opportunities to change the way in which visitors travel to and from the region, and around it. Walking and cycling tourism is one such opportunity and has the potential to create further economic growth by attracting new visitors to the region.

Improving Safety: There is the opportunity to reduce the number and severity of accidents on the A96 Trunk Road on those sections where the PIA and/or KSI accident rates are high when compared to the national average for equivalent urban or rural trunk A-roads. Improving safety for road users would contribute to meeting the targets set out in Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 to achieve the 50% reduction in people killed or seriously injured (60% reduction for children). Reducing the level of car-based kilometres travelled would also contribute to a reduction in accident numbers.

Interdependencies

This option has potential overlap with other A96 Corridor Review options and would also complement other areas of Scottish Government activity.

Other A96 Corridor Review Options

• Targeted Road Safety Improvements
• Active Communities
• Active Connections
• Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride
• Development of A96 Electric Corridor.

Other areas of Scottish Government activity

• Bus Partnership Fund ( Bus Partnership Fund )
• Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 ( Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 )
• Climate Change Plan 2018-32 Update ( Securing a green recovery on a path to net zero: climate change plan 2018–2032 - update )
• Infrastructure Investment Plan 2021/22 – 2025/26 (IIP) ( Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-26 )
• National Transport Strategy (NTS2) ( National Transport Strategy: Protecting Our Climate and Improving Our Lives )
• National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4) ( National Planning Framework 4 )
• The Place Principle ( Place Principle: Introduction )
• Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation )
• Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ( Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 )
• Strategic Road Safety Plan (2016) ( Strategic Road Safety Plan )
• Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) ( Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) ) .

Appraisal

Appraisal Overview

This section provides an assessment of the option against:

• A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives
• STAG criteria
• Deliverability criteria
• Statutory Impact Assessment criteria.

The seven-point assessment scale has been used to indicate the impact of the option when considered under the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ Travel Behaviour scenarios (which are described in Appendix A of the Transport Appraisal Report).

Transport Planning Objectives

1. A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.

Traffic levels along the A96 in the vicinity of Forres are in line with comparable towns along the A96 corridor (such as Inverurie), with approximately 13,000 vehicles per day (vpd) in 2019 ( National Traffic Data System (NTDS) ) . The A96 through Forres is a significant freight and commuter route, with A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM) (Transport Scotland, LATIS, A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM).) traffic modelling (2019 Base Year) indicating that between 45% and 65% of eastbound traffic and between 50% and 65% of westbound traffic in the peak hours travel through the settlement. Additionally, between 85% and 90% of HGVs in both directions are through trips. However, analysis of INRIX traffic data for May 2019 indicates that, generally, traffic flows well through the town. Whilst there are short queues on approach to the at-grade roundabouts, traffic is generally travelling above 60% of free flow speed throughout the day. Whilst removing through traffic from the existing A96 at Forres is unlikely to significantly reduce slow moving or stationary traffic, it would reduce interaction with at-grade local junctions and therefore reduce stop-start traffic. The provision of a bypass may therefore make a small contribution to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.

Generally, the provision of a bypass would be expected to better connect residents to key amenities and employment opportunities through the removal of through traffic, with potential to improve the sense of place and opportunities to travel by active modes. However, given the A96 does not pass directly through the town, these benefits are unlikely to be fully realised in Forres. There is a degree of severance as development has occurred to the north of the A96. However, with the exception of the train station, these developments mainly consist of industrial units, which could encourage more sustainable commuting trips, but are unlikely to be significant trip attractors for other trips via active modes.

Generally, a bypass would provide additional road space and therefore increase capacity for motorised vehicles, potentially inducing travel demand. Congestion within Forres is limited currently and would be expected to reduce under the ’With Policy’ Scenario. As such, congestion is unlikely to be suppressing road-based travel demand in this scenario. The provision of a bypass is therefore unlikely to result in an increase in road-based travel under the ’With Policy’ Scenario. If, however, the ’Without Policy’ Scenario was realised, congestion could increase, increasing the potential for a bypass to induce road-based travel. The provision of additional road space therefore has the potential to have a negative impact under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario and neutral impact under the ’With Policy’ Scenario on transport-based emissions.

While a bypass does not necessarily facilitate a modal shift to more sustainable modes, it could help support the provision of a safe, efficient, and reliable trunk road network which is integral to wider Scottish Government programmes relating to active travel and bus priority investment. Under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario, a bypass at Forres is not anticipated to generate road-based travel and therefore is scored as neutral against this objective. However, given the potential for the bypass to induce road-based travel demand under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario, a bypass at Forres is scored as a minor negative against this objective.

2. An inclusive strategic transport corridor that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment and education.

The frequency and integration of public transport services is a problem for settlements along the A96 corridor including Forres, with all datazones in the town ranking in the bottom 50% of Scottish Access to Bus Indicator (SABI) rankings nationally ( Scottish Access to Bus Indicator (SABI) ) . This is highlighted by the higher than average car ownership levels in Forres (73%) compared to national average (70%) and the lower than average levels of commuting to work via bus in Forres (5%) compared to the national average (11%) ( 2011 Census (Scotland) ) . The provision of a bypass could offer benefits to longer distance bus services by removing the impact of junction delays associated with Nairn Road/West Road Roundabout; however, any benefit is anticipated to be minimal.

A bypass at Forres is unlikely to have a direct impact on bus service frequency and coverage and is therefore not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

Overall, the options are anticipated to have a neutral impact on this objective in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

3. A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health, wellbeing and the environment.

Traffic levels along the A96 in the vicinity of Forres are in line with comparable towns along the A96 corridor (such as Inverurie), with approximately 13,000 vpd in 2019 . The A96 through Forres is a significant freight and commuter route, with A96 CRAM (Transport Scotland, LATIS, A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM).) (2019 Base Year) indicating that between 45% and 65% of eastbound traffic and between 50% and 65% of westbound traffic in the peak hours travel through the settlement. Additionally, between 85% and 90% of HGVs in both directions are through trips. Generally, the provision of a bypass would be expected to better connect residents to key amenities and employment opportunities through the removal of through traffic, with potential to improve the sense of place and opportunities to travel by active modes. However, as the existing A96 does not pass directly through the town, the degree of severance and associated impact on community cohesion resulting from through traffic at Forres is relatively minor. Developments to the north of the A96 largely consist of industrial units, with the exception of the train station, therefore a bypass would offer some severance relief for residents accessing the station north of the A96, who currently are required to cross the A96 via a staggered uncontrolled pedestrian/cycle crossing.

The option is scored to have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, due to the section of the A96 to be bypassed connecting residents to employment opportunities north of the corridor and the train station. However, overall the bypass would provide limited options to improve the sense of place and would not provide opportunities to travel by active modes within Forres itself as the existing A96 does not pass directly through the town.

4. An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond.

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market. The provision of a bypass at Forres is likely to improve connectivity between certain origins and destinations within the wider region by removing the need to interact with local junctions in Forres, and by bypassing a section of road which is subject to a reduced speed limit. As such, a bypass of Forres could support sustainable inclusive growth by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods across the region, through the associated reliability improvements on the trunk road network. Notwithstanding this, any benefits are anticipated to be relatively low, due to the low number of junctions on the existing A96 and the relatively short length of route that is subject to a reduced speed limit.

Forres is recognised as a small employment attractor and a ‘secondary growth area’ in the Moray region ( Moray Local Development Plan ) , with the town being home to Forres Enterprise Park in addition to numerous retail outlets and manufacturing plants. As such, some road users would remain on the existing A96 to access Forres for work and leisure, with the corridor likely to become more free flowing following the introduction of a bypass.

Overall, a bypass of Forres is expected to have a neutral impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios given the movement of goods and people along the A96 flows well through the town, with a bypass offering negligible benefits to improve this efficiency given the limited number of junctions bypassed and length of route that is subject to a reduced speed limit.

5. A reliable and resilient strategic transport system that is safe for users.

Generally, the PIA rate (2015-2019) on the A96 is lower than the national average; however, PIA rates between 2015 and 2019 for the urban section of the A96 through Forres have been identified as higher (16.2 accidents per MVKm) than corresponding accident rates for Built-up Trunk A-roads in Scotland (12.1 per MVKm) . The KSI accident rate is significantly higher than the national average (2.6 per MVKm) for routes of a similar type at 8.1 accidents per MVKm . On the rural section, the PIA rate is significantly lower than the national average for Non-Built-Up Trunk A-roads, and the KSI rate is in line with these road types. As such, drivers are more likely to have an accident on the urban section of the A96 through Forres than on equivalent roads elsewhere in Scotland, and the accident is more likely to be more severe. The provision of a Forres bypass would lower traffic volumes along the existing A96, which would reduce the conflict between local and long distance traffic on the urban section of the existing A96 at Forres, potentially reducing the number and severity of accidents.

The provision of a bypass would remove the need for through traffic to pass through the three at-grade roundabouts and the uncontrolled pedestrian/cycle crossing along the existing A96 at Forres. This, in turn, would reduce conflict with pedestrians and cyclists and the potential for accidents, whilst also likely improving the reliability of the strategic transport network.

Overall, a bypass at Forres would have a moderate positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, with the positive impacts felt by the community within Forres and the wider communities along the A96 corridor.

STAG Criteria

1. Environment

A bypass of Forres would likely result in minor positive impacts on communities due to improved safety on the existing A96 Trunk Road by separating a significant proportion of through traffic from local traffic. This would provide a safer environment to travel in as well as deliver health and wellbeing benefits to individuals. Due to the strategic nature of the route, the existing A96 through Forres carries a large volume of through traffic, with A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) traffic modelling indicating that up to 65% of general traffic and up to 90% of HGVs travel through the town . A bypass could help to reduce the volume of traffic travelling on the existing A96 at Forres and therefore improve the overall amenity for communities and businesses near the existing road. It may also assist with placemaking by reducing real and perceived severance between the majority of the settlement and the employment areas and train station at the northern extents, particularly for those walking, wheeling, and cycling, and improve the overall sense of place. As a result of the likely reduction in through traffic, a bypass would be anticipated to improve air quality and reduce noise and vibration within Forres itself; however, the extent of improvement would depend on how much traffic is transferred to the bypass, and the alignment of a bypass.

A bypass may also increase the overall use of private vehicles by improving the operational efficiency of the route, making car travel more attractive. The risk of a slight deterioration in air quality may increase as a result of any traffic increase; however, this is anticipated to be negligible at this location as there is no significant congestion through the town. The option also has the potential to improve air quality along the existing A96 within Forres through reducing traffic volumes and stop-start traffic within the town.

In terms of natural resources, significant quantities of materials and construction-related trips would be required during the construction of a bypass. Depending on the materials chosen and its source, there is the potential for a minor negative impact.

A bypass has the potential for adverse environmental impacts, with some of these being potentially significant, for example on the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity. Such impacts could either be direct (such as demolition/land loss/habitat loss) or indirect (such as impacts on setting or views). There are numerous environmental designations around Forres which may be a constraint to the route of a bypass without there being significant impacts. To the north of Forres is the Moray and Firth Coast Special Protection Area (SPA) and Ramsar site at Findhorn. There are some areas of Ancient Woodland and large swathes of Long-Established woodland to the south, west and north-west of Forres. Brodie Castle and Darnaway Castle Gardens and Designed Landscapes are large designations to the west of Forres. There are also areas of significant flood risk to the west and north of Forres associated with the Findhorn River and the coast at Findhorn and to the south-east associated with the Burn of Mosset. Flood mitigation measures are in place at the south-east to address this flood risk. A stretch of the River Findhorn itself, south-west of Forres, is designated as both a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and a Special Area of Conservation (SAC). All of the aforementioned would be key considerations in delivering a bypass alignment in these areas. The scale of the impacts would be dependent on further design development and the alignment of the bypass being determined and therefore at this stage, the extent of impacts is uncertain.

In terms of land use, the Moray Local Development Plan (2020) ( Moray Local Development Plan ) shows some settlement expansion to the east of Forres. The alignment of a bypass would need to take this into consideration as the route could constrain or have a negative impact on future development. To the south-east of Forres is a large area allocated for flood alleviation which could constrain the route of a bypass. The Local Development Plan includes a potential route of a bypass to the north of the settlement.

Further environmental assessment would be undertaken if a bypass is progressed through the design and development process in order to assess the location and scale of specific environmental impacts as well as to identify appropriate mitigation where required. Design and construction environmental management plans would also be developed to consider how to protect and enhance landscape, drainage, amenity, biodiversity, and cultural heritage. Appropriate environmental mitigation and enhancement measures would also be embedded as the design and development process progresses.

Overall, at this preliminary stage in the appraisal process, the potential impacts of the Forres bypass are considered moderate negative for this criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, although this would be subject to the location and design of the bypass. If the environmental constraints are avoided or adequately mitigated, then adverse environmental impacts could be reduced.

2. Climate Change

The A96 Trunk Road network could be considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas at high risk of flooding or in locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Impacts also could include material deterioration due to extreme weather leading to deterioration of surface such as softening, deformation and cracking, surface water flooding and damage to surfaces from periods of heavy rainfall. A bypass is likely to suffer the same vulnerabilities; however, flood protection schemes have been implemented within the A96 corridor, including at Forres , where possible new infrastructure would be designed in such a way as to minimise the potential effects of climate change, to reduce the vulnerability at that location. Furthermore a bypass should enhance the resilience of the A96, adapting against the effects of climate change.

In the short term, greenhouse gas emissions would occur due to construction activities undertaken to deliver the bypass, including indirect emissions from the manufacturing and transportation of materials and emissions from the fuel combusted by construction plant and vehicles.

Traffic levels along the A96 in the vicinity of Forres are in line with comparable towns along the A96 corridor (such as Inverurie), with approximately 13,000 vpd in 2019 . The A96 through Forres is a significant freight and commuter route, with A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) traffic modelling indicating that up to 65% of general traffic and up to 90% of HGVs travel through the town . However, analysis of INRIX traffic data for 2019 indicates that, generally, traffic flows well through the town. Whilst there are short queues on approach to the at-grade roundabouts, traffic is generally travelling above 60% of free flow speed throughout the day. Whilst removing through traffic from the existing A96 in Forres is unlikely to significantly reduce slow moving or stationary traffic, it would reduce interaction with at-grade junctions and therefore reduce stop-start traffic (which typically produces more emissions when compared with vehicles travelling at higher speeds). Similarly, the bypass is likely to have more efficient speed limit, meaning vehicles would be travelling at a more efficient speed than they currently do through the 40mph section, further reducing emissions.

Generally, the provision of a bypass would be expected to better connect local residents to key amenities and employment opportunities with the removal of through traffic, with potential to improve the sense of place and opportunities to travel by active modes to reduce the number of shorter-distance car trips. However, given the A96 does not pass directly through the town, these benefits are unlikely to be fully realised in Forres. There is a degree of severance as development has occurred to the north of the existing A96. With the exception of the train station, these developments mainly consist of industrial units and a significant shift in through traffic to a potential bypass could encourage more sustainable trips to these attractors from residential areas of Forres to the south of the existing A96.

A bypass would provide additional road space and therefore, increase capacity for motorised vehicles and incentivise a greater level of travel, potentially inducing travel demand. Whilst congestion is not currently a significant issue within Forres, in the future, congestion is likely to be experienced more intensely and for longer periods in the ’Without Policy’ Scenario compared to the ’With Policy’ Scenario, where congestion could be minimal. Expected impacts under the ’With Policy’ Scenario, such as a reduction in car km travelled, could reduce the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the bypass users. Therefore, the provision of additional road space has the potential to have a greater negative impact under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario than the ’With Policy’ Scenario for transport-based emissions. The extent of change in greenhouse gas emissions is also dependent on the migration to zero-emission fuels over time.

The provision of a bypass could enhance resilience of the A96 to the effects of climate change and offers the potential to increase sustainable commuting trips between key amenities north of the A96 (namely Forres train station) and communities south of the A96. However, with the potential for the bypass to induce travel demand combined with emissions arising during the construction period, the limited opportunities to increase active travel within the town and the A96 in Forres identified as at significant risk of flooding from various watercourses, a bypass of Forres is expected to have a minor negative impacts on the Climate Change criterion under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and a moderate negative impact under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

3. Health, Safety and Wellbeing

Generally, the PIA rate (2015-2019) on the A96 is lower than the national average for routes of a similar type; however, PIA rates between 2015 and 2019 for the urban section of the A96 through Forres have been identified as higher than corresponding accident rates for Built-Up Trunk A-roads in Scotland at 16.2 accidents per MVKm . The KSI accident rate is significantly higher than the national average for routes of a similar type at 8.1 accidents per MVKm . On the rural section, the PIA rate is significantly lower than the national average for Non-Built-Up Trunk A-roads, and the KSI rate is in line with these road types. As such, drivers are more likely to have an accident on the urban section of the A96 through Forres than on equivalent roads elsewhere in Scotland, and the accident is likely to be more severe. The provision of a Forres bypass would reduce the volume of traffic travelling along the existing A96, which would reduce the conflict between local and long distance traffic on the urban section, potentially reducing the number and severity of accidents.

The provision of a bypass would remove the need for through traffic to pass through the three at-grade roundabouts and the uncontrolled pedestrian/cycle crossing along the existing A96 at Forres. This would reduce conflict with pedestrians and cyclists and the potential for accidents, allowing for the creation of attractive environments which provide additional benefits to health and wellbeing.

As the existing A96 does not pass directly through the town, the degree of severance, and associated impact on community cohesion, resulting from through traffic at Forres is relatively minor. Developments to the north of the A96 largely consist of industrial units, with the exception of the train station, therefore a bypass would offer some severance relief for residents accessing the station north of the A96, who currently are required to cross the A96 via a staggered uncontrolled pedestrian/cycle crossing.

Removal of through traffic from the existing A96 at Forres through the provision of a bypass, and therefore reducing congestion, would likely result in minor or negligible benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

There is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of the bypass; however, this would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of the option.

It is anticipated that this option would have no impact on the personal security of travellers and their property.

The option is predicted to have a moderate positive impact on the Health, Safety and Wellbeing criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, with the positive impacts felt by the community within Forres and the wider communities along the A96 corridor. Additionally, the bypass would provide limited options to improve the sense of place and opportunities to travel by active modes within the town itself as the existing A96 does not pass directly through the town.

4. Economy

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities, as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market. The provision of a bypass at Forres is likely to improve connectivity between certain origins and destinations within the wider region, by removing the need to interact with the local junction in Forres, and by bypassing a section of road which is subject to a reduced speed limit. As such, a bypass at Forres could support regional economic growth by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods across the region, due to the associated reliability improvements on the trunk road network. Any benefits, however, are anticipated to be negligible, due to the number of junctions bypassed and the length of route that is subject to a reduced speed limit. Therefore, the wider economic impacts which would result from a bypass at Forres are likely to be minimal.

Forres is recognised as a small employment attractor and a ‘secondary growth area’ in the Moray region , with the town being home to Forres Enterprise Park in addition to numerous retail outlet and manufacturing plants. As there is limited congestion within the town, this option is unlikely to have a significant impact on these businesses.

An economic assessment to calculate the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) of this option has not been undertaken at this stage of appraisal as the route and standard of the bypass are currently unknown. However, this option is anticipated to result in benefits to both the private and business users in terms of travel times and vehicle operating costs, particularly for longer distance traffic bypassing the town. Benefits are anticipated to arise as vehicles using the bypass are likely to travel at a more efficient speed, without the need to interact with local junctions. Journey time benefits are also anticipated as local congestion is bypassed and through higher travel speeds associated with the route operating at a higher speed limit.

Overall, a bypass at Forres is expected to have a neutral impact on the Economy criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios given the movement of goods and people along the A96 currently flows well through the town, with a bypass offering negligible benefits to improve this efficiency given the limited number of junctions bypassed and length of route that is subject to a reduced speed limit.

5. Equality and Accessibility

Traffic levels along the A96 in the vicinity of Forres are in line with comparable towns along the A96 corridor (such as Inverurie), with approximately 13,000 vpd in 2019 .The A96 via Forres is a significant freight and commuter route, with A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) traffic modelling indicating that up to 65% of general traffic and up to 90% of HGVs travel through the town. Generally, the provision of a bypass would be expected to better connect residents to key amenities and employment opportunities through the removal of through traffic, with potential to improve the sense of place. However, as the existing A96 does not pass directly through the town, the degree of severance, and associated impact on community cohesion, resulting from through traffic at Forres is relatively minor. Developments to the north of the A96 largely consist of industrial units, with the exception of the train station. A bypass would offer some severance relief for protected characteristic groups who are more likely to walk, wheel, or cycle to the train station, and who are more vulnerable to fear of road safety issues, including children, young people, women, and older people.

This option is not expected to have a significant impact on the public transport network within Forres. A bypass of Forres would not have a direct impact on service frequency and coverage nor have an impact on fares. Therefore, this option is not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the affordability and accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

The potential positive impacts resulting from this option are expected to be most acutely felt by residents within Forres, while the population along the wider A96 corridor would experience negligible impacts against this criterion.

Reference should also be made to the SIAs in Section 3.5.

The option is considered to have a minor positive impact on the Equality and Accessibility criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, due to the section of the A96 to be bypassed offering benefits for protected characteristic groups who are more likely to walk, wheel or cycle between the residential areas south of the A96 at Forres and the train station to the north of the A96. However, overall, the majority of benefits would be for those with access to a vehicle and a bypass would not provide opportunities to travel by active modes within the town itself as the existing A96 does not pass directly through the town.

Deliverability

1. Feasibility

As the bypass is likely to form part of the trunk road network, Transport Scotland would likely be the scheme promoter. Transport Scotland has significant experience of delivering major roads projects and bypasses within Scotland. Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion of construction and is readily capable of arranging the operation and maintenance the A96 Forres bypass as part of the wider trunk road network.

The scheme would need to be progressed through an options identification and selection process, development of the preliminary design, including the associated environmental assessments. Any option would also be required to pass through the statutory process, which would require public consultations and could result in the need for a public local inquiry.

Some of the key engineering constraints to the north of Forres are existing roads, including the B9011, in addition to the River Findhorn and the Aberdeen to Inverness railway line. The River Findhorn would also be a constraint for a bypass to the south, as would the A940, B9010 and steep topography from the A96 heading south at the eastern extents of the town. Any bypass route will have to consider geotechnical constraints around Forres as well as areas of poor ground conditions. There are also various environmental and planning/land use constraints which have been outlined in previous sections.

Detailed development work, including community and stakeholder engagement, would be required to identify the most appropriate preferred route for a bypass.

Despite the constraints and challenges outlined above, the work undertaken to date indicates that a bypass is considered feasible.

2. Affordability

The total estimated cost of providing a bypass of Forres could range between £101m - £250m, as outlined in Section 1.3. Construction costs can vary significantly based on the potential length, design and preferred route of the bypass. Costs would also be dependent on a number of other factors, such as the complexity of construction, the requirement for earthworks and structures, localised ground conditions, the purchase of land and various other engineering and environmental constraints.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the costs associated with the operation and maintenance of the bypass, which would have ongoing costs. It is not anticipated that these costs would be significant in the context of the wider trunk road network which Transport Scotland operates and maintains across Scotland.

The decision to fund capital infrastructure projects ultimately rests with Transport Scotland and the Scottish Government.

3. Public Acceptability

Wider public support is anticipated within the north-east of Scotland for this option, with work undertaken to look at the dualling of the A96, as part of the A96 Dualling Hardmuir to Fochabers scheme being in the public domain. Support is also anticipated from the community in Forres and stakeholders in the wider business community for improvements to the safety and journey time reliability of the trunk road and local road network.

There are likely to be some members of the public who do not support the construction of a bypass. This could include landowners, communities, businesses, and other stakeholders who have concerns over the impact of construction/operation of the bypass or the resulting potential impacts to the environment.

Depending on the response to the bypass, there is likely to be the need for a Public Local Inquiry.

Public consultation undertaken as part of this review indicated general support for bypasses, with 30% of respondents considering the provision of bypasses as one of their top priorities, and 7% suggesting that bypasses could help to address safety concerns. Furthermore, Forres was mentioned as a potential location for a bypass. Only 2% of respondents opposed bypasses along the A96.

Statutory Impact Assessment Criteria

1. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

An SEA has been prepared and has helped inform the Environment criterion of the STAG appraisal. There is also considerable overlap between the SEA and the Climate Change criterion. The SEA utilises a set of SEA objectives that covers a wide range of environmental topics including Climatic Factors, Air Quality, Noise, Population and Human Health, Material Assets, Water Environment, Biodiversity, Geology and Soils, Cultural Heritage, Landscape and Visual Amenity. The full SEA, including scoring and narrative for each of the Preliminary Appraisal interventions and Detailed Appraisal packages is presented in the SEA Draft Environmental Report ( Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Draft Environmental Report - A96 Corridor Review ) .

2. Equalities Impact Assessment (EqIA)

This option could result in reduced traffic on the existing A96 at Forres, creating some benefits for groups with protected characteristics. A decrease in traffic could result in improved local air quality, which would be a particular benefit to those groups who are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic-related emissions such as older people, disabled people, children, and pregnant women. Furthermore, a decrease in through traffic on the existing A96 at Forres could also address local severance issues experienced by those accessing the train station north of the A96 and could reduce road safety concerns for those groups who are less likely to travel by car. However, due to the location of the existing A96 through Forres there is likely to be a limited impact on the town itself.

There could also be benefits for certain groups who rely on private vehicle use to access key services due to mobility issues such as disabled people and older people, or those who make complex journeys involving ‘trip chaining’ such as women and carers. These groups could experience an improvement in journey times and reliability of journey times both locally and when travelling to key services such as employment, education, healthcare, shopping in Forres and surrounding areas.

Drivers on the A96 at Forres are more likely to have an accident on the urban section than on equivalent roads elsewhere in Scotland, and the accident is more likely to be severe. Reducing traffic should in turn reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the existing A96 in Forres. The provision of a bypass would also remove the need for through traffic to pass through the three at-grade roundabouts and the uncontrolled pedestrian/cycle crossing along the existing A96 at Forres, reducing conflict with pedestrians and cyclists and therefore the potential for accidents, whilst also improving the reliability of the strategic transport corridor. This could offer benefits for certain groups who are more vulnerable to road traffic accidents, such as child pedestrians.

The construction of a new bypass may result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for local communities. The construction of the scheme may impact groups who are more vulnerable to noise, vibration, and air quality impacts such as children, older people, disabled people, and pregnant women. Furthermore, during operation, a new bypass could create potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts for communities along the route . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the location of the bypass and the types of communities affected.

A bypass of Forres is expected to have a neutral impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for those protected characteristic groups.

3. Children’s Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment (CRWIA)

A decrease in traffic on the existing A96 at Forres could result in improved local air quality and reduced traffic noise which would be a particular benefit to children as they are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic-related emissions and traffic noise. Reduced traffic levels could also help to also address local severance issues, reduce road safety concerns and improve access to education for children and young people. However, due to the location of the existing A96 through Forres there is likely to be a limited impact on the town itself.

The construction of a new bypass could potentially result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for children living in local communities along the route. This includes noise, vibration and air quality impacts during construction and potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts during operation . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the location of the bypass and proximity to children and young people living or attending schools along the route.

The provision of a bypass would also remove the need for through traffic to pass through the uncontrolled pedestrian/cycle crossing along the existing A96 at Forres, reducing conflict with pedestrians and cyclists and therefore the potential for accidents. This could offer benefits for child pedestrians.

Overall, a bypass of Forres is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for children living along the A96 through Forres. However, potential negative impacts could be experienced under both the scenarios for children living and attending school along the new bypass route. More detailed assessment is required to understand the extent of these impacts and to ensure effective mitigation.

4. Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment (FSDA)

This option would result in reduced traffic on the existing A96 at Forres, creating benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups by improving the active travel environment for those who are unable to afford a car. There is also the potential for a reduction in inequalities of health in disadvantaged and deprived communities through improved air quality. However, due to the location of the existing A96 through Forres there is likely to be a limited impact on the town itself.

There is generally a heavier reliance on the use of the private car along the A96 corridor compared with the rest of the country. This is primarily due to the rural nature of the region, where there is greater dependency on the private car to access employment, education, healthcare and for social purposes. In absence of viable alternatives to travel, those on low incomes may be ‘forced’ into car ownership despite financial constraints. However, there could be benefits through an improvement in journey times and reliability of journey times for these drivers as a result of more economical journeys as well more attractive environment for active travel where possible.

There are opportunities for safety improvements to benefit socio-economically disadvantaged groups, as evidence ( Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System ) shows that people from deprived areas are more likely to be injured or killed as road users.

However, the extent to which positive effects would be realised depends on the location of a bypass and the level of reduction of through traffic within disadvantaged and deprived communities .

Overall, a bypass of Forres is expected to have a neutral impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for socio-economically disadvantaged groups.