Preliminary Appraisal Summary Table - Inverurie Bypass

Preliminary Appraisal Summary

Option Description

Inverurie Bypass

This option focuses on improving the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 Trunk Road in Inverurie through the provision of a bypass within the vicinity of the town. Inverurie is shown within the context of the wider A96 Trunk Road in Figure 1.1. Note that due to this being at an early stage of the process, the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) appraisal does not define the location, route or standard of the bypass.

The existing A96 Trunk Road passes along the west of Inverurie, however, development has since occurred to the west of the A96, meaning the route creates severance issues between those developments and the amenities within the town. The A96 Trunk Road through Inverurie routes from the A96/North Street priority junction to the northwest, to the at-grade A96/B993 Inverurie Roundabout to the south, with Blackhall Roundabout, a large at-grade junction located towards the middle of the section. Blackhall Roundabout provides access from the A96 Trunk Road to Inverurie Town lying to the east and to the new developments lying to the west.

The existing A96 Trunk Road through Inverurie is a single carriageway, approximately 7.3m wide, national speed limit road, with no continuous footpaths along the route.

This option would help to improve the reliability and resilience of the A96 through reducing the impacts of accidents and reducing the impacts of road closures; in turn, this could support access to tourism sites, improve access to employment opportunities, and enhance the efficiency of freight movements. This option could address severance caused by the A96 bisecting the town which separates communities east and west of the corridor; residential areas to the west of the A96 would benefit from severance relief. Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce. This could increase the attractiveness of active travel within Inverurie due to the anticipated reduction in traffic flows. In turn, this would increase the opportunities to enhance placemaking on the A96 throughout Inverurie. However, for the purposes of the preliminary appraisal, these do not form part of this specific option.

Relevance

Relevant to all road users in the corridor

The A96 Trunk Road plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland. The provision of a bypass of Inverurie could enhance connectivity between certain origins and destinations within the wider region by bypassing the existing A96 at Inverurie. This could result in improved connectivity between surrounding towns and Inverurie by reducing the volume of through traffic on the local road network that connects onto the existing A96 Trunk Road. As such, a bypass within the vicinity of Inverurie could help bolster the regional economy by improving connectivity to the food and drink sector and help improve access to key industries local to Inverurie (such as retail and tourism) ( NOMIS Official Labour Market Statistics ) , enabling economic growth to be realised. This option supports Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ) , which sets out the Scottish Government’s vision to creating a more successful country through a wellbeing economy, noting the requirement to thrive across the economic, social and environmental dimensions.

This option could support the reliability and resilience of the network for communities and businesses by reducing the impact of accidents on the network. A high quality, well maintained and efficient trunk road network can also support other Scottish Government programmes for active travel, development of connected and autonomous vehicle infrastructure and bus priority investment, and thereby contributes to the low carbon economy.

Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 sets out the vision for Scotland to have the best road safety performance in the world by 2030 and the long-term goal of Vision Zero where there are zero fatalities and serious injuries on Scotland’s roads by 2050 with ambitious interim targets for the number of people killed or seriously injured to be halved by 2030 ( Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ) . The framework is aligned with National Transport Strategy 2 (NTS2) and embeds the Safe System approach to road safety delivery, which consists of five key pillars focusing efforts not only on road traffic casualty reduction (vulnerability of the casualties) but also on road traffic danger reduction (sources of the danger).

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 Trunk Road is lower than the national average for similar road types, and this is also the case for the section through Inverurie. However, a number of accidents do occur on the route, particularly at Blackhall roundabout, and between Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout, with two serious accidents occurring on this section of the route between 2015 and 2019 ( STATS19 Road Safety Data ) . The provision of an Inverurie bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic travelling along the existing A96 Trunk Road, and in particular reduce the volume of traffic using Blackhall Roundabout. Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could decrease, in turn reducing conflicts and the potential for accidents. As such, this option would contribute to Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 supporting Vision Zero.

Estimated Cost

£101m - £250m Capital

Determining the estimated cost of this option is dependent on a number of factors including the scale and complexity of the bypass and specific local constraints that would require further examination and assessment at the stages of design development, a level of detail beyond that which is undertaken as part of a STAG appraisal.

As a result, the STAG appraisal does not define the location or route of the bypass, although it has been assumed that the approximate length will range from 5km to 15km. The category of road for the bypass and the number and type of junctions have also not been defined at this stage.

Considering the assumed range for the approximate length of the bypass, the total estimated cost is expected to fall within the range of £101m - £250m.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the operation and maintenance of the bypass, which would have ongoing costs associated with it.

Position in Sustainable Hierarchies

Sustainable Investment Hierarchy / Sustainable Travel Hierarchy

Within the Sustainable Investment Hierarchy, this option sits within ‘targeted infrastructure improvements’. This option would also sit within the ‘private car’ tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy.

This option would also contribute to eight of the 12 NTS2 outcomes as follows:

• Provide fair access to services we need
• Help deliver our net zero target
• Adapt to the effects of climate change
• Get people and goods to where they need to get to
• Be reliable, efficient and high quality
• Use beneficial innovation
• Be safe and secure for all
• Help make our communities great places to live.

Summary Rationale

Summary of Appraisal

This option has a generally neutral contribution to a number of the A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs), STAG criteria and Statutory Impact Assessment (SIA) criteria, with some minor positives. However, it is expected that there will be negative impacts as a result from this option in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, specifically considering TPO1 and the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria. Impacts are anticipated to be greater for TPO1 and Climate Change under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario (moderate negative) than the ‘With Policy’ Scenario (minor negative).

The bypass would remove through trips from the current network, reducing delay experienced by motorists as well as increasing resilience and reducing the accident risk with lower traffic volumes in the urban area. This option is therefore anticipated to have minor positive impacts on the TPOs in relation to providing a safe, reliable and resilient transport system (TPO5) as well as contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4) and the STAG Economy criterion.

The impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity, with an overall moderate negative impact expected for the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. Also, considering the levels of congestion in the area, and the potential for the bypass to induce travel demand, combined with emissions arising during the construction period and the limited opportunities to increase active travel within the town, a complete bypass of Inverurie is expected to have a moderate negative impact on TPO1 regarding contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets and the STAG Climate Change criterion under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario, where overall traffic demand and vehicle kilometres travelled are higher, and a minor negative impact under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario. The location of the section to be bypassed means that there are limited opportunities to improve active travel, though the section does form part of the desire line between the local community to the west of the A96 and local amenities. Whilst a reduction in traffic along this section could reduce real and perceived severance, this is unlikely to result in a significant benefit to the community to the west, whose sole crossing point of the A96 is likely to remain the grade separated active travel route to the north of Blackhall Roundabout. Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce, which would likely act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within the town. These measures could provide an opportunity to enhance placemaking within the town but would likely only be of limited benefit given the potential volume of traffic that may be removed from the local road network. This option is therefore anticipated to score neutral against TPO3 for enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment, as well as the STAG criteria for Health, Safety and Wellbeing and Equality and Accessibility.

Delivery of the bypass is considered feasible at this stage; however, a detailed assessment would be required to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Inverurie is considered affordable at this stage, capital costs are highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. A reasonable level of support for the option from the public is anticipated due to the potential safety improvements and reliability benefits for through traffic.

Although the bypass as a standalone intervention does not perform particularly well against three of the TPOs and the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria, it could act as an enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Inverurie.

It is recommended that this option is taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Details behind this summary are discussed in Section 3.

Context

Problems and Opportunities

This option could help to address the following problem and opportunity themes. Further detail on the identified problems and opportunities is provided in the published A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ) .

Relevant Problem and Opportunity Themes Identified in the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change

Safety and Resilience : From the analysis of accident data, the rural sections of the A96 Trunk Road have overall Personal Injury Accidents (PIA) rates lower than or similar to the national average based on all trunk A-roads of the equivalent type. Whilst the accident rate on the A96 through Inverurie is below the national average, there are locations where accidents occur, such as Blackhall Roundabout in Inverurie.

The A96 Trunk Road is affected by closures and delays due to accidents, maintenance and weather events. Recommended diversion routes can be up to approximately 65km depending on where the closure occurs. The economic impact of closures can be significant for HGVs and the movement of goods.

Health and Environment : Transport is a major contributor to CO ₂ emissions along the A96 corridor, particularly in the Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas. Transport contributes over 35% of the total emissions in both Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas and between 25% and 30% in Aberdeen City and Moray. This is potentially an outcome of high dependence on cars for travel, long travel distances and the levels of road-based freight movements.

The A96 route runs through towns within the corridor, including Elgin and Keith, and passes in close proximity to other town centres. This places a relatively large proportion of the population in close proximity to potential noise pollution and pollutants from transport emissions that affect local air quality.

Sustainable Economic Growth: There is an opportunity to support and enhance sustainable economic growth across the transport appraisal study area. The key industries in the region, including food and drink production and agriculture, forestry and fishing have a high proportion of goods movement, as evidenced through the relatively high proportion of HGVs on the A96. A shift to alternative sustainable transport modes could improve journey time reliability, resulting in economic and environmental benefits, with trials being undertaken in recent years to increase the proportion of rail freight movements.

The transport appraisal study area has shown growth in tourism spend in recent years with the rise of whisky tourism and the Speyside Whisky Trail a major component of the economy in this sector. There are opportunities to change the way in which visitors travel to and from the region, and around it. Walking and cycling tourism is one such opportunity and has the potential to create further economic growth by attracting new visitors to the region.

Improving Safety: There is the opportunity to reduce the number and severity of accidents on the A96 Trunk Road on those sections where the PIA and/or Killed or Seriously Injured accident rates are high when compared to the national average for equivalent urban or rural trunk A-roads. Improving safety for road users would contribute to meeting the targets set out in Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 to achieve the 50% reduction in people killed or seriously injured (60% reduction for children). Reducing the level of car-based kilometres travelled would also contribute to a reduction in accident numbers.

Interdependencies

This option has potential overlap with other A96 Corridor Review options and would also complement other areas of Scottish Government activity.

Other A96 Corridor Review Options

• Targeted Road Safety Improvements
• Active Communities
• Active Connections
• Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride
• Development of A96 Electric Corridor.

Other areas of Scottish Government activity

• Bus Partnership Fund ( Bus Partnership Fund )
• Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 ( Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 )
• Climate Change Plan 2018-32 Update ( Securing a green recovery on a path to net zero: climate change plan 2018–2032 - update )
• Infrastructure Investment Plan 2021/22 – 2025/26 (IIP) ( Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-26 )
• National Transport Strategy 2 (NTS2) ( National Transport Strategy: Protecting Our Climate and Improving Our Lives )
• National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4) ( National Planning Framework 4 )
• The Place Principle ( Place Principle: Introduction, Scottish Government )
• Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation )
• Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ( Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 )
• Strategic Road Safety Plan (2016) ( Strategic Road Safety Plan )
• Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) ( Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) ) .

Appraisal

Appraisal Overview

This section provides an assessment of the option against:

• A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives
• STAG criteria
• Deliverability criteria
• Statutory Impact Assessment criteria.

The seven-point assessment scale has been used to indicate the impact of the option when considered under the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ Travel Behaviour scenarios (which are described in Appendix A of the Appraisal Report).

Transport Planning Objectives

1. A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.

Indicative of the high traffic flows along the A96 at Inverurie, the observed annual average daily traffic (AADT) between Inverurie and Kintore was approximately 28,400 vehicles per day (vpd) in 2019; however, this dropped to between approximately 10,500 vpd and 20,000 vpd on the section passing through Inverurie west and east of Blackhall Roundabout respectively ( National Traffic Data System (NTDS) ) . A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM) (Transport Scotland, LATIS, A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM).) traffic modelling (2019 Base Year) at Inverurie indicates differing levels of through traffic on the existing A96 Trunk Road, with 60% to 70% of traffic travelling on the A96 section between Huntly and Inverurie (eastbound) continuing on the A96 to Aberdeen and other destinations to the east of Inverurie. Traffic modelling also indicates between 20% and 35% of traffic travelling westbound on the A96 section between Kintore and Inverurie continuing on the A96 to destinations west of Inverurie, for example Insch, Huntly and Keith, depending on the peak period. Similarly, between 75% and 85% of HGVs travelling on the A96 section between Huntly and Inverurie (eastbound) continue on the A96 to Aberdeen and other destinations to the east of Inverurie. The proportion of HGVs travelling westbound on the A96 section between Kintore and Inverurie continuing on the A96 to destinations west of Inverurie, for example Insch, Huntly and Keith, is indicated to be between 20% and 50% westbound, depending on the peak period. Analysis of INRIX traffic data for May 2019 indicates that capacity issues exist on the A96, as through traffic interacts with local traffic. Congestion has been identified on the section of the A96 between Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout during both the morning and evening peak, with average traffic speeds dropping as low as 24% of the free flow speed. Removing this traffic through the provision of a bypass has the potential to improve the operation of key junctions in the town, including Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout, and contribute to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target through the reduction of slow moving or stationary traffic.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce, which would likely act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within the town. Furthermore, any reduction in traffic flow could improve the reliability and attractiveness of bus services for longer distance limited stop services travelling on the bypass and local services travelling on the A96 and local road network, positively contributing to this objective under both the ’With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

However, a bypass would provide additional road space and therefore, increase capacity for motorised vehicles, potentially inducing travel demand. Congestion within Inverurie is likely to be experienced more intensely and for longer periods in the ’Without Policy’ Scenario compared to the ’With Policy’ Scenario, where congestion could be minimal. Therefore, the provision of additional road space has the potential to have a negative impact under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario and a neutral impact under the ’With Policy’ Scenario on transport-based emissions.

While a bypass does not necessarily facilitate a modal shift to more sustainable modes, it could help support the provision of a safe, efficient, and reliable trunk road network which is integral to wider Scottish Government programmes relating to active travel and bus priority investment. However, given the levels of congestion in the area, and the potential for the bypass to induce travel demand, combined with the limited opportunities to increase active travel within the town, a bypass at Inverurie is scored as a minor negative under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and moderate negative under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario against this objective.

2. An inclusive strategic transport corridor that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment and education.

The frequency and integration of public transport services is a problem for settlements along the A96 corridor, including Inverurie. This is highlighted by the higher than average car ownership levels (79%) and the lower than average levels of commuting to work via bus in Inverurie ( 2011 Census (Scotland) ) . The provision of a bypass would benefit services through the reduction of traffic flows on the existing A96 at Inverurie, particularly at the Inverurie Roundabout and Blackhall Roundabout, including longer distance bus services which may stop at Inverurie as it is one of the larger settlements between Aberdeen and Inverness.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce, which would improve the efficiency and reliability of bus services travelling on these routes.

A bypass at Inverurie is unlikely to have a direct impact on service frequency and coverage and is therefore not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

Overall, the options are anticipated to have a neutral impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

3. A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health, wellbeing and the environment.

Indicative of the high traffic flows along the A96 at Inverurie, the annual average daily traffic (AADT) between Inverurie and Kintore is approximately 28,400 vehicles per day (vpd); however, this drops to between approximately 10,500 vpd and 20,000 vpd on the section passing through Inverurie west and east of Blackhall Roundabout respectively . A96 CRAM (Transport Scotland, LATIS, A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM).) (2019 Base Year) traffic modelling at Inverurie indicates differing levels of through traffic on the existing A96 Trunk Road, with 60% to 70% of eastbound traffic travelling through the settlement and onwards to other destinations, and between 20% and 35% of westbound traffic travelling through the settlement, depending on the peak period. Similarly, eastbound between 75% and 85% of HGVs are passing through Inverurie, reducing to between 20% and 50% westbound, depending on the peak period. The removal of through trips by providing a bypass at Inverurie could reduce the real and perceived severance caused by the strategic road network. Any severance relief would largely be experienced by the community located to the west of the A96, which consists of a mixture of residential and industrial developments, and houses less than 10% of Inverurie residents. This community already benefits from a grade separated active travel route to the north of the existing A96 at Blackhall Roundabout. There are currently no other active travel provisions connecting the developments to the west of the A96 with Inverurie, and perceptions of severance are likely to remain. There are therefore unlikely to be any discernible benefits in relation to severance for residents to the west of the A96.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce. The current level of traffic demand could be seen as a barrier to active travel, detracting from the sense of place within Inverurie itself. If the existing through traffic utilised the proposed bypass at Inverurie, this could as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within the town.

The option is scored to have a neutral impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, as the potential to improve the sense of place, and opportunities to travel by active modes are limited. This is given that the section of the A96 proposed to be bypassed does not pass directly through the town or connect residents with key local amenities, therefore it is unlikely to be a highly utilised active travel route.

4. An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond.

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market ( 2019-2022 Strategy ) . The provision of a bypass at Inverurie is likely to improve connectivity between certain origins and destinations within the wider region by bypassing any congestion associated with local trips using the A96 junctions at Inverurie. As such, a bypass at Inverurie could support sustainable inclusive growth by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods across the region, due to the associated reliability and resilience improvements on the trunk road network.

As Inverurie is home to numerous building material suppliers, retail outlets, and tourism sites, some road users would likely remain on the existing A96 in order to access the employment and leisure destinations. Alleviating the existing A96 through traffic in Inverurie could reduce queue lengths and improve the operation of key junctions such as Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout. As such, a bypass in Inverurie could support sustainable inclusive growth by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods between the town and local area and alleviating congestion for those travelling to Inverurie for employment or leisure due to the associated reliability improvements on the existing A96. As such, this would support opportunities for employment and for business growth.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce, which would in turn improve the journey time reliability for those accessing the town for work and leisure. Furthermore, the removal of through trips could also provide opportunities to enhance placemaking within Inverurie, enhancing the local economy by providing more attractive surroundings which encourages increased footfall. However, some economic benefits could be negated if reducing through traffic negatively impacts communities as a result of a reduction in passing trade.

Overall, a bypass at Inverurie is expected to have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios due to the likely improved reliability for vehicles transporting goods across the wider region. Furthermore, the proposed option has the potential to enhance access to labour markets, suppliers, and customers.

5. A reliable and resilient strategic transport system that is safe for users.

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 is lower than the national average for similar route types ( Reported Road Casualties Scotland table 5(b) ) , and this is also the case for the section through Inverurie. However, a number of accidents do occur on the route, particularly at Blackhall Roundabout, and between Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout, with two serious accidents occurring on this section of the route between 2015 and 2019 . The provision of an Inverurie bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic on the A96 at Inverurie by removing up to 70% of eastbound traffic and 35% of westbound traffic during the peak hours, based on the proportion of through traffic in the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year). This, in turn, could reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the A96 in Inverurie.

Overall, a bypass at Inverurie would have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, with the positive impacts likely to be experienced by the community within Inverurie and the wider communities along the A96 corridor.

STAG Criteria

1. Environment

A bypass of Inverurie would be likely to result in some minor positive impacts on communities, including health and wellbeing benefits. While the A96 is aligned on the south-western periphery of the settlement at present and has a 60mph speed limit, there has been settlement expansion of Inverurie over the last two decades which has seen residential properties and businesses being separated from the main settlement by the A96. A complete bypass of the settlement could provide an opportunity to reduce the barriers and severance for pedestrians and cyclists accessing the town centre and other amenities, therefore improving the wellbeing of residents. The area of expansion includes businesses, retail and leisure facilities which residents of Inverurie can only access by crossing the A96. A bypass could reassign some through traffic from the existing A96, making pedestrian and cycling access to these facilities more appealing. The degree of improvement would depend on how much traffic is transferred to the bypass.

In terms of natural resources, significant quantities of materials and construction-related trips would be required during the construction of a bypass. Depending on the material chosen and its source, there is the potential for a negative impact.

A bypass has the potential for adverse environmental impacts, with some of these being potentially significant, for example on the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity. Such impacts could either be direct (such as demolition/land loss/habitat loss) or indirect (such as impacts on setting or views). There are numerous environmental designations around Inverurie which may be a constraint to the alignment of a bypass without there being significant impacts. To the north of Inverurie are two historic battlefields (Battle of Harlaw and Battle of Barra) which are on the Historic Battlefields Inventory. To the east, is Keith Hall Garden and Designed Landscape. There are large swathes of Ancient and Long-Established Woodland to the east, west and south-west. There are also areas of significant flood risk to the east and north (associated with the River Urie) and to the south-west (associated with the River Don). There is also a regional landscape designation to the south and west of Inverurie – Bennachie Special Landscape Area. This is designated in the Aberdeenshire Local Development Plan ( Aberdeenshire Local Development Plan 2023 (Appendix 13) ) . All of the aforementioned would be key considerations in delivering a bypass alignment in these areas. The scale of the effects would be dependent on further design development and the alignment of the bypass being determined and therefore at this stage, the extent of impacts is uncertain.

In terms of land use, the Aberdeenshire Local Development Plan indicates there is some settlement expansion of residential development to the north-east, north-west and south-west. Commercial and business expansion is shown to the south-west. The alignment of a bypass would also need to take this into consideration as the route could constrain or have a negative impact on the future development.

Further environmental assessment would be undertaken if a bypass is progressed through the design and development process in order to assess the location and scale of specific environmental impacts as well as to identify appropriate mitigation where required. Design and construction environmental management plans would also be developed to consider how to protect and enhance landscape, drainage, amenity, biodiversity, and cultural heritage. Appropriate environmental mitigation and enhancement measures would also be embedded as the design and development process progress.

Overall, at this preliminary stage in the appraisal process, the potential impacts of the Inverurie bypass are considered moderate negative for this criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, although this would be subject to the location and design of the bypass. If the environmental constraints are avoided or adequately mitigated, then adverse environmental impacts could be reduced.

2. Climate Change

The A96 Trunk Road network could be considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas at high risk of flooding or in locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Impacts also could include material deterioration due to extreme weather leading to a deterioration in surfaces such as softening, deformation and cracking, surface water flooding and damage to surfaces from periods of heavy rainfall. A bypass of Inverurie is likely to face the same vulnerabilities; however, new infrastructure would be designed to minimise the potential effects of climate change, to reduce the vulnerability at that location. Furthermore a bypass should enhance the resilience of the A96, adapting against the effects of climate change.

In the short term, greenhouse gas emissions would be generated from construction activities undertaken to deliver the bypass, including indirect emissions from the manufacture and transportation of materials, and emissions from the fuel combusted by construction plant and vehicles.

Traffic data from the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year) indicates that between 60% and 70% of eastbound traffic travelling on the A96 at Inverurie is through traffic, reducing to between 20% and 35% westbound, depending on the peak period. Similarly, eastbound between 75% and 85% of HGVs are passing through Inverurie, reducing to between 20% and 50% westbound, depending on the peak period. Removing this traffic through the provision of a bypass would contribute to reducing congestion on, or approaching, the existing A96 at Inverurie, whilst also improving the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel particularly for shorter distance journeys. The provision of a bypass would also reduce the number of commercial goods vehicles, including HGVs travelling on the existing A96 at Inverurie. Reducing congestion and through traffic, including goods vehicles, on the existing A96 would contribute to fewer emissions being produced around Inverurie.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce, which would likely act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within the town. Furthermore, any reduction in traffic flow could improve the reliability and attractiveness of bus services for longer distance services travelling on the bypass and local services travelling on the A96 and local road network, positively contributing to this objective under both the ’With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

However, a bypass provides additional road space, which is likely to increase capacity for motorised vehicles, potentially inducing travel demand. Congestion within Inverurie is likely to be experienced more intensely and for longer periods in the ’Without Policy’ Scenario compared to the ’With Policy’ Scenario, where congestion could be minimal. Expected impacts under the ’With Policy’ Scenario, such as a reduction in car km travelled, could reduce the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the bypass users. Therefore, the provision of additional road space has the potential to have a minor negative impact under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario and a neutral impact under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario on transport-based emissions. The extent of change in greenhouse gas emissions is also dependent on the migration to zero-emission fuels over time.

The provision of a bypass could enhance resilience of the A96 to the effects of climate change. However, given the levels of congestion in the area, and the potential for the bypass to induce travel demand, combined with emissions arising during the construction period and the limited opportunities to increase active travel within the town, a complete bypass of Inverurie is expected to have a minor negative impact on the Climate Change criterion under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and a moderate negative impact under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

3. Health, Safety and Wellbeing

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 is lower than the national average for similar road types, and this is also the case for the section through Inverurie. However, a number of accidents do occur on the route, particularly at Blackhall Roundabout, and between Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout, with two serious accidents occurring on this section of the route between 2015 and 2019 . The provision of an Inverurie bypass would be likely to reduce the volume of traffic on the A96 in Inverurie by potentially removing up to 70% of westbound traffic and 35% of eastbound traffic during the peak hours, based on the proportion of through traffic in the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year). This, in turn, could reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the A96 in Inverurie. The removal of through trips, as a result of the Inverurie bypass, could reduce the real and perceived severance caused by the strategic road network; however, this severance relief would likely be experienced in the main by the community located to the west of A96, which already benefits from a grade separated active travel route under the existing A96 at Blackhall Roundabout. There are currently no other paths connecting the developments to the west with the A96, therefore any benefits are anticipated to be negligible.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce, which could improve the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel, particularly for shorter distance journeys. As such, the removal of through traffic within the town could result in an increase in active travel, by creating environments that are more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, providing additional benefits to health and wellbeing.

The removal of traffic accessing the A96 from local roads within central Inverurie through the provision of a bypass, therefore potentially reducing congestion, could provide minor benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, whether it will be by car, public transport or active modes.

There is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of the bypass; however, this would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of the option.

It is anticipated that this option would have no impact on the personal security of travellers and their property.

The option is anticipated to have a neutral impact on this criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, as the potential to improve the sense of place, and opportunities to travel by active modes are limited, given the section of the A96 proposed to be bypassed is not likely to connect residents with key local amenities, therefore it is unlikely to be a highly utilised active travel route.

4. Economy

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market . The provision of a bypass at Inverurie would result in wider economic impacts locally and regionally, through improving connectivity between certain origins and destinations within the wider region by bypassing the congestion associated with the A96 junctions at Inverurie. As such, a bypass at Inverurie could support sustainable inclusive growth by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods across the region, due to the associated reliability improvements on the trunk road network.

As Inverurie is home to numerous building material suppliers, retail outlets, and tourism sites, some road users would remain on the existing A96 to access the town for work and leisure. Alleviating the existing A96 through traffic in Inverurie would reduce queue lengths and improve the operation of key junctions of Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout. As such, a bypass in Inverurie could support sustainable inclusive growth by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods between the town and local area and alleviating congestion for those travelling to Inverurie for employment or leisure due to the associated reliability improvements on the existing A96. In turn, this could support opportunities for employment and for business growth.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce, which would in turn improve the journey time reliability for people accessing the town for work and leisure. Furthermore, the removal of through trips could also provide opportunities to enhance placemaking within Inverurie, enhancing the local economy by providing more attractive surroundings which encourages increased footfall. However, some economic benefits could be negated if reducing through traffic negatively impacts communities as a result of a reduction in passing trade.

An economic assessment to calculate the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) of this option has not been undertaken at this stage of appraisal as the route and standard of the bypass are currently unknown. However, this option is anticipated to result in benefits to both the private and business users in terms of travel times and vehicle operating costs, particularly for longer distance traffic bypassing the town. Benefits are anticipated to arise as vehicles using the bypass are likely to travel at a more efficient speed, without the need to interact with local junctions. Journey time benefits are also anticipated as local congestion is bypassed and through higher travel speeds associated with the route operating at a higher speed limit.

Overall, a bypass at Inverurie is expected to have a minor positive impact on this criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios due to the improved confidence in the trunk road network provided for moving goods across the wider region, and for the opportunity to provide measures to enhance access to labour markets, suppliers, and customers between Inverurie and its local area via the existing A96 corridor.

5. Equality and Accessibility

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 is lower than the national average for similar road types, and this is also the case for the section through Inverurie. However, a number of accidents do occur on the route, particularly at Blackhall Roundabout, and between Blackhall Roundabout and Inverurie Roundabout, with two serious accidents occurring on this section of the route between 2015 and 2019 . The provision of an Inverurie bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic travelling along the A96 in Inverurie by potentially removing up to 70% of eastbound traffic and 35% of westbound traffic during the peak hours, based on the proportion of through traffic in the A96 CRAM (2019 Base Year). The removal of through trips, by providing a bypass of Inverurie, could reduce the real and perceived severance caused by the strategic road network; however, this severance relief would likely be experienced in the main by the community located to the west of A96, which currently benefits from a grade separated active travel route under the existing A96 at Blackhall Roundabout. There are currently no other active travel provisions connecting the developments to the west with the A96, therefore any benefits are anticipated to be negligible.

Whilst this intervention would not directly impact active travel, depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, the bypass has the potential to attract trips from local roads routing through Inverurie to access the A96. This could reduce traffic flows through the town and therefore improve the sense of road safety. In turn, this could allow for active travel network connections to be improved and could encourage sustainable modes of travel through the creation of an attractive environment for walking, wheeling, and cycling. This could provide some positive effects for protected characteristic groups who are more likely to walk, wheel or cycle, and are more vulnerable to fear of road danger, including children, young people, women, and older people.

This option is not expected to have a significant impact on the public transport network within Inverurie. A bypass of Inverurie is not anticipated to have a direct impact on service frequency and coverage nor have an impact on fares. Therefore, this option is not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the affordability and accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

Any potential positive impacts resulting from this option are expected to be most acutely felt by residents within Inverurie, while the population along the wider A96 corridor would experience negligible impacts against this criterion.

Reference should also be made to the SIAs in Section 3.5.

Overall, the bypass at Inverurie is anticipated to score a neutral impact on the Equality and Accessibility criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, as the majority of the benefits would likely be felt by people who have access to a vehicle. There is the potential to encourage more people to travel actively following the removal of through traffic on the local road network through Inverurie; however, this is highly dependent on the route of the bypass and the location of intermediate junctions, so is largely unknown at this time.

Deliverability

1. Feasibility

As the bypass is likely to form part of the trunk road network, Transport Scotland would likely be the scheme promoter. Transport Scotland has significant experience of delivering major roads projects and bypasses within Scotland. Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion of construction and is readily capable of arranging the operation and maintenance of the A96 Inverurie bypass as part of the wider trunk road network.

The scheme would need to be progressed through an options identification and selection process and development of the preliminary design, including the associated environmental assessments. Any option would also be required to pass through the statutory process, which would require public consultations and could result in the need for a Public Local Inquiry.

Some of the key engineering constraints to the east of Inverurie are existing roads including the B9001, B9170 and B993, the Rivers Urie and Don and the Aberdeen to Inverness railway line. The B993 and the River Don would also be constraints for a bypass to the west, as would the steep topography heading west which includes various hills such as the Hill of Ardtannes, Corsman Hill and Shaw Hill. Any bypass route would have to consider geotechnical constraints around Inverurie as well as infilled quarries and areas with poor ground conditions. There are also various environmental and planning/land use constraints which have been outlined in previous sections.

Detailed development work, including community and stakeholder engagement, would be required to identify the most appropriate preferred route for a bypass.

Despite the constraints and challenges outlined above, the work undertaken to date indicates that a bypass is considered feasible.

2. Affordability

The total estimated cost of providing a bypass of Inverurie could range between £101m - £250m, as outlined in Section 1.3. Construction costs can vary significantly based on the potential length, design and preferred route of the bypass. Costs would be also dependent on a number of other factors, such as the complexity of construction, the requirement for earthworks and structures, localised ground conditions, the purchase of land and various other engineering and environmental constraints.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the costs associated with the operation and maintenance of the bypass, which would have ongoing costs. It is not anticipated that these costs would be significant in the context of the wider trunk road network which Transport Scotland operates and maintains across Scotland.

The decision to fund capital infrastructure projects ultimately rests with Transport Scotland and the Scottish Government.

3. Public Acceptability

Wider public support is anticipated within the north-east of Scotland for this option, with work undertaken to look at the dualling of the A96, as part of the A96 Dualling East of Huntly to Aberdeen scheme being in the public domain. Support is also anticipated from the community in Inverurie and stakeholders in the wider business community for improvements to the safety and journey time reliability of the trunk road and local road network.

There is likely to be some members of the public who do not support the construction of a bypass. This could include landowners, communities, businesses, and other stakeholders who have concerns over the impact of construction/operation of the bypass or the resulting potential impacts to the environment.

Depending on the response to the bypass, there is likely to be the need for a Public Local Inquiry.

Public consultation undertaken as part of this review indicated general support for bypasses, with 30% of respondents considering the provision of bypasses as one of their top priorities, and 7% suggesting that bypasses could help to address safety concerns. Furthermore, Inverurie was mentioned as a potential location for a bypass. Only 2% of respondents opposed bypasses along the A96.

Statutory Impact Assessment Criteria

1. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

An SEA has been prepared and has helped inform the Environment criterion of the STAG appraisal. There is also considerable overlap between the SEA and the Climate Change criterion. The SEA utilises a set of SEA objectives that covers a wide range of environmental topics including Climatic Factors, Air Quality, Noise, Population and Human Health, Material Assets, Water Environment, Biodiversity, Geology and Soils, Cultural Heritage, Landscape and Visual Amenity. The full SEA, including scoring and narrative for each of the Preliminary Appraisal interventions and Detailed Appraisal packages is presented in the SEA Draft Environmental Report ( Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Draft Environmental Report - A96 Corridor Review ) .

2. Equalities Impact Assessment (EqIA)

This option could result in reduced traffic on the existing A96 at Inverurie. The removal of through trips by providing a bypass at Inverurie would reduce the real and perceived severance caused by the strategic road network; however, this severance relief would largely be experienced by the community located to the west of the A96, which already benefits from a grade separated active travel route under the existing A96 at Blackhall Roundabout. There are currently no other active travel provisions connecting the developments to the west with the A96, therefore any benefits in this location are likely to be negligible.

Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, traffic flows through Inverurie could reduce. The current level of traffic demand could be seen as a barrier to active travel, detracting from the sense of place within Inverurie itself. If this through traffic travelled on the bypass at Inverurie, this could act as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within the town.

As this option is anticipated to decrease traffic volumes through Inverurie, there are potential benefits for groups with protected characteristics. For example, a decrease in traffic could result in improved local air quality which would be a particular benefit to those groups who are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic emissions, such as older people, disabled people, children and pregnant women. However, the location of the section to be bypassed means any benefits are likely to be limited.

The construction of a new bypass may result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for local communities. The construction of the scheme may impact groups who are more vulnerable to noise, vibration and air quality impacts such as children, older people, disabled people and pregnant women. Furthermore, during operation, the new bypass could create potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts for communities along the route . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the location of the bypass and the types of communities affected.

A bypass of Inverurie is expected to have a neutral impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for those protected characteristic groups living along the A96 through Inverurie and for those who are dependent on private vehicle use.

3. Children’s Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment (CRWIA)

A decrease in traffic on the existing A96 at Inverurie could result in improvements in local air quality and reduced traffic noise which would be a particular benefit to children and younger people as they are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic-related emissions and noise. The removal of through trips by providing a bypass at Inverurie would reduce the real and perceived severance caused by the strategic road network; however, this severance relief would largely be experienced by the community located to the west of the A96, which already benefits from a grade separated active travel route under the existing A96 at Blackhall Roundabout. There are currently no other active travel provisions connecting the developments to the west with the A96, therefore any benefits in this location are likely to be negligible.

As this option is anticipated to decrease traffic volumes on the existing A96 at Inverurie, there are potential benefits for groups with protected characteristics. For example a decrease in traffic could result in improved local air quality which would be a particular benefit to children who are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic emissions. However, the location of the section to be bypassed means any benefits are likely to be limited.

The construction of a new bypass could potentially result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for children living in local communities along the route. This includes noise, vibration and air quality impacts during construction and potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts during operation . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the location of the bypass and proximity to children and young people living or attending schools along the route.

Overall, a bypass of Inverurie is expected to have a neutral impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for children living along the A96 at Inverurie.

4. Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment (FSDA)

This option could result in reduced traffic on the existing A96 at Inverurie, creating benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups by improving the active travel environment for those who are unable to afford a car. There is also the potential for a reduction in inequalities of health in disadvantaged and deprived communities through improved air quality. However, any severance relief would largely be experienced by the community located to the west of the A96, which already benefits from a grade separated active travel route under the existing A96 at Blackhall Roundabout. There are currently no other active travel provisions connecting the developments to the west with the A96, therefore any benefits in this location are likely to be negligible.

There is generally a heavier reliance on the use of the private car along the A96 corridor compared with the rest of the country, with Inverurie having a particularly high rate of car ownership. This is primarily due to the rural nature of the region, where there is greater dependency on the private car to access employment, education, healthcare and for social purposes. In absence of viable alternatives to travel, those on low incomes may be ‘forced’ into car ownership despite financial constraints. However, there could be benefits through an improvement in journey times and reliability of journey times for these drivers as a result of more economical journeys, as well more attractive environment for active travel where possible.

There are opportunities for safety improvements to benefit socio-economically disadvantaged groups, as evidence ( Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System ) shows that people from deprived areas are more likely to be injured or killed as road users.

However, the extent to which positive effects would be realised depends on the location of a bypass and the level of reduction of through traffic within disadvantaged and deprived communities .

Overall, a bypass at Inverurie is expected to have a neutral impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for socio-economically disadvantaged groups.