Appendix E: Assessment Matrices

Climatic Factors: Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

Based on the estimated cost range between £2,501m and £5,000m for Full Dualling, GHG emissions arising from the construction stage are estimated to be in the range of approximately 700,000 tonnes CO ₂ e (tCO ₂ e) to 1,400,000 tCO ₂ e.

Traffic flows and emissions around the A96 and on adjacent connecting routes are predicted to increase as a result of this option due to a combination of reduced congestion, which potentially attracts traffic to the route, and an increase in route length which combine to increase overall vehicle kilometres under both the With and Without Policy Scenarios, resulting in a net increase in GHG emissions.

The estimated increase in road user GHG emissions over the appraisal period between the ‘with scheme’ and ‘without scheme’ scenarios is approximately 150,000 tCO2e under the ’With Policy’ Scenario and approximately 1,450,000 tCO ₂ e under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

The Net Present Value of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO ₂ e) of the proposal, calculated using the DfT GHG Workbook following the Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3, indicates that road user GHG emissions would increase over the 60-year appraisal period. The outputs indicate an estimated disbenefit under the With Policy Scenario of around (-) £15m-£20m and (-) £100m-£125m under the Without Policy Scenario.

The provision of a dual carriageway would provide additional capacity whilst also increasing the average speed along the corridor through a combination of an increase in speed limit and the provision of overtaking opportunities. Furthermore, the provision of a dual carriageway would result in additional overtaking opportunities which would contribute to reducing the occurrence of platooning caused by slower moving vehicles, with a consequential change on the reliability of journey times. Traffic modelling indicates time lost due to congestion is anticipated to reduce for general traffic by 2% and 3% in the With and Without Policy scenarios respectively, which is likely to be a result of these factors leading to a more consistent travel speed along the route, which could result in a slight benefit to road-based transport GHG emissions.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Climatic Factors: Climate

Adaptation

The existing A96 Trunk Road is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas at high risk of flooding, or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Such areas identified in the environmental assessment for A96 Full Dualling are the floodplains associated with the River Lossie near Elgin, flood risk areas around Keith associated with the River Isla, and flood risk areas around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don.

The transport network improvements are expected to improve the resilience to identified flood risk areas, and other potential climate risks, through the provision of an alternative route to the existing A96 Trunk Road. The enhancements in the transport infrastructure to encourage sustainable transport modes in the area have the potential to partially mitigate road user emissions over time when coupled with decarbonisation of the grid, and a switch to electric vehicles.

Whilst there is potential to reduce transport emissions, current key long-term climate change trends for Scotland suggest that average temperatures will increase across all seasons; typically, summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on the Full Dualling option. Heavy rainfall events will become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents. These events have the potential to flood railway lines, or wash sections away, leading to significant disruption on the rail network and a resultant knock-on impact on other transport modes and routes.

Paved surfaces created as part of the Full Dualling and active travel might incur surface damage or be impacted by surface water flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. There is also an increased risk of thermal expansion and movement of paved surfaces due to increased summer temperatures. Infrastructure might also be inaccessible during other extreme weather events.

In order to account for the effects of climate change, the infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to predicted impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions, in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures would be considered at later design development stages to address potential extreme weather events that will affect the region, and other likely climate risks.

As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective, in both With and Without Policy scenarios.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Air Quality

Full Dualling has the potential to have positive effects on air quality within settlements. Where the existing A96 Trunk Road alignment passes through settlements that would be bypassed by full dualling, these areas may experience an improvement in air quality due to a reduction in vehicle emissions, with traffic modelling indicating that at a daily level the anticipated traffic flow would reduce on the current A96 Trunk Road through the towns of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie with A96 Full Dualling in place by between approximately 45% and nearly 90% depending on location. However, as the A96 does not travel through the centre of Forres and Inverurie, benefits to air quality would not be as significant in the centre of these towns where traffic volumes are likely to remain relatively unaffected. Negative impacts on air quality may arise in the vicinity of the dualling alignment itself due to an increase in vehicles using the route. However, the negative impacts on receptors are not expected to be significant due to the improved flow of traffic and the likely lower numbers of properties adjacent to the bypass route.

The option is anticipated to increase total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) over the 60-year appraisal period. This is due to an anticipated increase in road-based trips and an associated increase in car vehicle kilometres. There is a predicted increase of 94 tonnes of NOx and 140 tonnes of particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less (PM _2.5 ) emissions in the With Policy Scenario; and an increase of 821 tonnes of NOx and 159 tonnes of PM _2.5 emissions in the Without Policy Scenario. For the air quality topic as a whole, a minor negative effect was predicted for Full Dualling.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Population and Human Health Quality of life and sustainable access

Full Dualling is likely to have positive effects in terms of communities and physical fitness. The network improvements could reduce disruption and congestion and increase accessibility, including access to services. The inclusion of the bypasses could lead to improvements in quality of life and accessibility for Elgin, Keith and Inverurie through removing some of the through traffic from the network. This has the opportunity to improve the roads in those locations to increase active travel opportunities and reduce some of the barriers to active travel. Creating a sense of place through the improvement of these areas could increase active travel and in turn physical fitness.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Population and Human Health Noise and

Vibration

Full Dualling has the potential to have positive effects in terms of noise and vibration within the settlements, depending on the alignment of the dual carriageway, as it is assumed that dualling is likely to bypass settlements. Scotland’s Noise Map illustrates that vehicle noise from the A96 Trunk Road is a significant contributor of noise within the settlements on the A96 corridor and thereby noise effects could be reduced where the proposed dualling bypasses such settlements. Full dualling has the potential to result in greater noise impacts in proximity to its alignment. The significance of these effects would depend on the preferred alignment and its proximity to sensitive receptors, although noise mitigation could be incorporated. The construction of interventions included in this package and associated traffic is also likely to lead to minor negative effects on noise and vibration during the construction phase.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Population and Human Health High quality places

Where the alignment of the dual carriageway results in the provision of bypasses, Full Dualling provides the opportunity to deliver interventions within towns to enhance placemaking and reduce real and perceived severance, reducing demand for unsustainable travel, particularly for shorter everyday trips. Facilitating the transition to sustainable models could further reduce traffic volumes within settlements along the corridor such as Elgin and Keith, enhancing the sense of place and supporting health and wellbeing. This is also expected to have a positive impact on the environment within any community bypassed, with improved air quality and result in benefits in relation to noise and vibration and visual amenity resulting from reduced traffic volumes within these settlements. It should however be noted that this option does not include the provision of active travel measures within bypassed settlements.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Population and Human Health Safety

The provision of a dual carriageway and an increase in safe overtaking opportunities between Hardmuir and Craibstone would result in the safer operation of the network and reduced accident rates and severity. This is particularly relevant at locations where evidence suggests there is a safety problem or there is a potential safety risk. From the analysis of accident data, the Personal Injury Accident (PIA) rate on the A96 is lower than the national average; however, the Killed or Seriously Injured (KSI) rate on some rural sections is higher than the national average. There are also perceived safety concerns on the route, such as the lack of safe overtaking opportunities, which can result in driver frustration and poor driving behaviours. Hardmuir to Forres, Fochabers to Keith, Keith to East of Huntly and Kintore to Craibstone are identified as sections of the A96 with a KSI rate slightly higher than the national average. Sections of the A96 through Forres and Keith have also been identified as having a PIA and KSI rate higher than the national average. The improvement in safety would likely result in reduced accident rates and severity as well as a reduction in driver stress, through the provision of safe overtaking opportunities.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Positive

Material Assets

Sustainable

Transport

Full Dualling has the potential for major negative impacts on the sustainable transport SEA objective as dualling could potentially lead to increased vehicle traffic and associated negative impacts on several SEA topics such as climate (greenhouse gas emissions), air quality, noise and vibration, water quality and flood risk, biodiversity, cultural heritage and landscape.

However, there is a potential opportunity for road schemes to improve surface conditions, and, alongside advancement in the types of materials used, reduce overall maintenance needs in the longer-term, with associated positive effects. The full dualling option also has potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes). Bearing these potential negative and positive effects in mind, a moderate negative is predicted overall.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Material Assets

Natural Resources

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several of the proposed interventions, there is potential for major negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage. Raw materials such as aggregate, non-metallic minerals, cement and sand are likely to be required for the construction of new transport infrastructure ( IOER Information System Built Environment 2024, Transport Infrastructures ).

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Water Quality and Flood Risk

Full Dualling has the potential for significant negative effects in terms of water, drainage and flooding. There are large areas of floodplain around Elgin associated with the River Lossie, some of which have flood mitigation. There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. There are also areas of flood risk around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don. The construction of the new dual carriageway also has the potential to have a negative impact on water quality of these watercourses and consideration would be needed as to the alignment terms of water crossings and bridge design.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would depend on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Biodiversity

Due to the overall scale of the required infrastructure, Full Dualling has the potential to have major negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, and forestry. Such impacts could either be direct such as demolition/land loss/habitat loss, or indirect such as impacts on setting or views and would depend on the alignment of the dualling. The A96 corridor and its surroundings, contain various local, regional, national, and international designated sites, the impacts on which would need to be considered. Depending on the alignment of the Full Dualling option, there could be significant effects on the environment given the scale of works which would likely be irreversible particularly given the sensitive locations along the existing route.

The local, regional, national, and international designated sites include for example SACs, SPAs and SSSIs. There are large swathes of Long-Established Woodland (of plantation origin), pockets of Ancient Woodland (of semi-natural origin) and areas with Tree Preservation Orders.

The following designated sites are noted in the overall A96 corridor study area:

43 SSSIs

eight SPAs

seven SACs

four Ramsar sites

two RSPB Reserves

The scale of the effects will depend on the design and alignment of the dualling and further detailed environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as part of any further option development.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Soils

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration, water retention and protection of archaeological resources.

Due to the overall scale of the full dual carriageway option, this package has the potential to have major negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint, including high grade agricultural land, Geological Conservation Review sites, carbon rich soils and peat.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Cultural Heritage

Due to the overall scale of the required infrastructure, Full Dualling has the potential to have major negative effects on the historic environment. Such impacts could either be direct such as demolition/land loss or indirect such as impacts on setting or views and would depend on the alignment of the dualling. The A96 corridor and its surroundings, contain various local, regional, national, and international designated sites, the impact on which would need to be considered. Depending on the alignment of the Full Dualling option, there could be significant effects on the environment given the scale of works which would likely be irreversible particularly given the sensitive locations along the existing route.

The following designated sites are noted in the overall A96 corridor study area:

17 Gardens and Designed Landscapes

20 Conservation Areas

four Inventory of Historic Battlefields Sites

236 Scheduled Monuments

The scale of the effects will depend on the design and alignment of the dualling and further detailed environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as part of any further option development.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Landscape

Due to the overall scale of the required infrastructure, Full Dualling has the potential to have adverse effects on landscape. Such impacts could either be direct such as demolition/land loss/loss of vegetation or indirect such as impacts on setting or views and would depend on the alignment of the dualling. The A96 corridor and its surroundings, contain various local, regional, national, and international designated sites, the impacts on which would need to be considered. Depending on the alignment of the full dualling option, there could be significant effects on the environment given the scale of works which would likely be irreversible particularly given the sensitive locations along the existing route.

The following designated sites are noted in the overall A96 corridor study area:

30 distinct Landscape Character Types (LCTs) between Inverness and Aberdeen

13 Local Landscape Areas (LLAs)

In addition, according to the National Forest Inventory, wooded areas occur along the entire study area, concentrating on the outskirts of the towns of Nairn, Forres and Keith. In the southern part of the study area near Inverurie, there is less forestation than in the north. Conifers predominate, but there are also areas of fallen trees, broadleaved trees and young trees. According to the Ancient Woodland Inventory, long-established areas (of plantation origin) are found mainly from Inverness to Huntly.

There are also various Tree Preservation Orders scattered through the study area, including several close to the existing A96 for example at Nairn, Keith and Thainstone.

The eastern end of the study area is within the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Greenbelt, the purpose of which is to help avoid coalescence of settlements and sprawling development on the edge of the city, maintain Aberdeen's landscape setting, and provide access to open space.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of the effects associated with the full dualling of the A96 will be dependent on the design and alignment of the dualling and further detailed environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as part of any further option development.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Climatic Factors: Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

Based on the estimated cost range between £501m and £1,000m for this package, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from the construction stage are estimated to be in the range of approximately 140,000 tonnes CO ₂ e (tCO ₂ e) to approximately 280,000 tCO ₂ e.

Traffic flows and emissions around the A96 are predicted to increase as a result of this package, due to reduced congestion and an attraction of traffic onto this part of the network. There is therefore a net increase in road users’ GHG emissions over the 60-year appraisal period. The estimated increase in road user GHG emissions over the appraisal period between the ‘with package’ and ‘without package’ scenarios is approximately 4,000 tCO2e under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and approximately 110,000 tCO2e under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

The Net Present Value of tCO2e emissions of the package, calculated using the DfT GHG Workbook following the Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3 for the appraisal period, indicates an estimated net disbenefit under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario of approximately (-) <£0.5m and (-) £5m-£10m under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

The estimated increase in road users’ GHG emissions in the appraisal period between the ‘with scheme’ and ‘without scheme’ scenarios for this package of interventions is approximately 4,000 tCO ₂ e under the With Policy Scenario and approximately 110,000 tCO ₂ e under the Without Policy Scenario.

Further assessment should take into consideration mitigation to reduce the GHG impact of construction activities.

Based on the estimated cost range between £501m and £1,000m for this package, GHG emissions arising from the construction stage are estimated to be in the range of approximately 140,000 tonnes CO2e (tCO2e) to approximately 280,000 tCO2e.

Traffic flows and emissions along the A96 are predicted to decrease as a result of this package, due to an increase in sustainable travel mode share, resulting in a net decrease in GHG emissions. The estimated decrease in road user GHG emissions over the appraisal period between the ‘with package’ and ‘without package’ scenarios is approximately 1,200 tCO2e under the ’With Policy’ Scenario and 12,200 tCO2e under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

The Net Present Value of tCO2e of the package, calculated using the DfT GHG Workbook following the Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3 for the appraisal period, indicate an estimated net benefit under the ’With Policy’ Scenario of approximately (+) <£0.5m and (+) £0.5m-£1m under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

Total road users’ GHG emissions arising from this package between 2030 and 2045 are estimated to be 1,402,567 tCO ₂ e for the With Policy Scenario in comparison to 1,403,741 tCO ₂ e without the package in place. This results in a decrease in road user GHG emissions of 1,174 tCO ₂ e for the period of 2030-2045.

Total road users’ GHG emissions arising from this package between 2030 and 2045 are estimated to be 3,593,250 tCO ₂ e for the Without Policy Scenario in comparison to 3,596,379 tCO ₂ e without the package in place. This results in a decrease in road user GHG emissions of 3,129 tCO ₂ e for the period of 2030-2045.

Based on the estimated cost range between £501m and £1,000m for this package, GHG emissions arising from the construction stage of this package are estimated to be in range of approximately 140,000 tonnes CO ₂ e (tCO ₂ e) and 280,000 tCO ₂ e.

Traffic flows and emissions around the A96 decrease as a result of this package, due to an increase in sustainable travel mode share, resulting in a net decrease in road user GHG emissions over the 60-year appraisal period. The estimated decrease in road user GHG emissions over the appraisal period between the ‘with package’ and ‘without package’ scenarios is approximately 1,300 tCO2e under the ’With Policy’ Scenario and approximately 10,800 tCO2e under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

The Net Present Value of tCO2e of the package, calculated using the DfT GHG Workbook following the Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3 for the appraisal period, indicate an estimated net benefit under the ’With Policy’ Scenario of approximately (+) <£0.5m and (+) £0.5m-£1m under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

Total road users’ GHG emissions arising from this package between 2030 and 2045 are estimated to be 1,402,420 tCO ₂ e for the With Policy Scenario in comparison to 1,403,741 tCO ₂ e for ‘Road without the Scheme’. This results in the decrease in road user GHG emissions of 1,321 tCO ₂ e in period of 2030-2045. Total road users’ GHG emissions arising from this package between 2030 and 2045 are estimated to be 3,593,554 tCO ₂ e for the Without Policy Scenario in comparison to 3,596,379 tCO ₂ e for ‘Road without Scheme’. This results in decrease in road user GHG emissions of 2,825 tCO ₂ e in the period of 2030-2045.

Based on the estimated cost range between £501m and £1,000m for this package, GHG emissions arising from the construction stage of this package are estimated to be in range of 140,000 tonnes CO ₂ e (tCO ₂ e) and 280,000 tCO ₂ e.

Traffic flows and emissions along the A96 are predicted to decrease as a result of this package, due to an increase in sustainable travel mode share, resulting in a net decrease in road user GHG emissions over the 60-year appraisal period. The estimated decrease in road user GHG emissions over the appraisal period between the ‘with package’ and ‘without package’ scenarios is approximately 2,100 tCO2e under the ’With Policy’ Scenario and approximately 14,100 tCO2e under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

The Net Present Value of tCO2e of the package, calculated using the DfT GHG Workbook following the Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3 for the appraisal period, indicate an estimated net benefit under the ’With Policy’ Scenario of approximately (+) <£0.5m and (+) £1m-£5m under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

Total road users’ GHG emissions arising from this package between 2030 and 2045 are estimated to be 1,402,420 tCO ₂ e for the With Policy Scenario in comparison to 1,403,741 tCO ₂ e without the package in place. This results in the decrease in road user GHG emissions of 1,321 tCO ₂ e in period of 2030-2045.

Total road users’ GHG emissions arising from this package between 2030 and 2045 are estimated to be 3,593,554 tCO ₂ e for the Without Policy Scenario in comparison to 3,596,379 tCO ₂ e without the package in place. This results in decrease in road user GHG emissions of 2,825 tCO ₂ e in the period of 2030-2045.

Based on the estimated cost range between £1,001m and £2,500m for this package, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions arising from the construction stage are estimated to be in the range of approximately 280,000 tonnes CO2e (tCO2e) to approximately 700,000 tCO2e.

Traffic flows and emissions around the A96 increase as a result of this package, due to reduced congestion and an attraction of traffic onto this part of the network. There is therefore a net increase in road users’ GHG emissions over the 60-year appraisal period. The estimated increase in road user GHG emissions over the 60-year appraisal period between the ‘with package’ and ‘without package’ scenarios is approximately 3,200 tCO2e under the ’With Policy’ Scenario and 100,400 tCO2e under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario

The Net Present Value of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the proposal, calculated using the DfT GHG Workbook following the TAG Unit A3 for the appraisal period, indicates an estimated net disbenefit under the ’With Policy’ Scenario of approximately (-) <£0.5m and (-) £5m-£10m under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

The estimated increase in road users’ GHG emissions in the appraisal period between the ‘with scheme’ and ‘without scheme’ scenarios for this package of interventions is approximately 3,200 tCO ₂ e under the With Policy Scenario and 100,400 tCO ₂ e under the Without Policy Scenario.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Climatic Factors: Climate

Adaptation

The existing A96 Trunk Road is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Such areas identified in the environmental assessment for this package are the floodplains associated with the River Lossie near Elgin, flood risk areas around Keith associated with the River Isla, and flood risk areas around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don.

The transport network improvements are expected to improve the resilience to identified flood risk areas, and other potential climate risks. The enhancements in the transport infrastructure to encourage sustainable transport modes in the area have the potential to partially mitigate road user emissions over time when coupled with decarbonisation of the grid, and a switch to electric vehicles.

Whilst there is potential to reduce transport emissions, current key long-term climate change trends for Scotland suggest that average temperatures will increase across all seasons; typically, summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on this package of interventions. Heavy rainfall events will become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents. These events have the potential to flood railway lines, or wash sections away, leading to significant disruption on the rail network and a resultant knock-on impact on other transport modes and routes.

Paved surfaces created as part of the bypasses, active travel infrastructure, and bus priority measures included in this package might incur surface damage or be impacted by surface water flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. There is also an increased risk of thermal expansion and movement of paved surfaces due to increased summer temperatures. Higher summer temperatures might also lead to overheating and damage of electrical equipment developed as part of the ‘Electric Corridor’ intervention. Infrastructure might also be inaccessible during extreme weather events.

In order to account for the effects of climate change, the infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to predicted impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions, in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures would be considered at later design development stages to address potential extreme weather events that will affect the region, and other likely climate risks.

As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective, in both With and Without Policy scenarios.

The existing A96 Trunk Road network is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated.

Whilst there is potential to reduce transport emissions, current key long-term climate change trends for Scotland suggest that average temperatures will increase across all seasons; typically, summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on this package of interventions. Heavy rainfall events have the potential to flood railway lines, or wash sections away, leading to significant disruption on the rail network. Moreover, such heavy rainfall events are anticipated to become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents.

Paved surfaces created as part of the active travel infrastructure, road safety improvements and potential bus priority measures included in this package might incur surface damage or be impacted by surface water flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. There is also an increased risk of thermal expansion and movement of paved surfaces due to increased summer temperatures. Higher summer temperatures might also lead to overheating and damage of electrical equipment developed as part of the ‘Electric Corridor’ intervention. Infrastructure might also be inaccessible during extreme weather events.

In order to account for the effects of climate change, the infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions, in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures would be considered at later design development stages to address potential extreme weather events that would affect the region and other likely climate risks.

As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective, in both With and Without Policy scenarios.

The existing A96 Trunk Road network is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated.

Whilst there is potential to reduce transport based GHG emissions, current key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are that average temperatures will increase across all seasons; typically, summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on this package of interventions. These events have the potential to flood railway lines, or wash sections away, leading to significant disruption on the rail network and a resultant knock-on impact on other transport modes and routes. Moreover, such heavy rainfall events are anticipated to become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents.

Paved surfaces created as part of the active travel infrastructure, road safety improvements and bus priority measures included in this package might incur surface damage or be impacted by surface water flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. There is also an increased risk of thermal expansion and movement of paved surfaces due to increased summer temperatures. Higher summer temperatures might also lead to overheating and damage of electrical equipment developed as part of the ‘Electric Corridor’ intervention.

In order to account for the effects of climate change, the infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions and designed in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures will be considered at later design development stages to address potential extreme weather events that are anticipated to affect the region, and other likely climate risks.

As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective, in both With and Without Policy scenarios.

The existing A96 Trunk Road network is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated.

Whilst there is potential to reduce transport based GHG emissions, current key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are that average temperatures will increase across all seasons; typically, summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on this package of interventions. Heavy rainfall events are expected to become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents

These events have the potential to flood railway lines, or wash sections away, leading to significant disruption on the rail network and a resultant knock-on impact on other transport modes and routes.

Paved surfaces created as part of the active travel infrastructure and road safety improvements included in this package might incur surface damage or be impacted by surface water flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. There is also an increased risk of thermal expansion and movement of paved surfaces due to increased summer temperatures. Higher summer temperatures might also lead to overheating and damage of electrical equipment developed as part of the ‘Electric Corridor’ intervention.

In order to account for the effects of climate change, the infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions and designed in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures would be considered at later design development stages to address potential extreme weather events that may affect the region, and other likely climate risks.

As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective, in both With and Without Policy scenarios.

The existing A96 Trunk Road is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Such areas are the floodplains associated with the River Lossie near Elgin, flood risk areas around Keith associated with the River Isla, and flood risk areas around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don.

The transport network improvements are expected to improve the resilience to identified flood risk areas, and other potential climate risks. The enhancements in the transport infrastructure to encourage sustainable transport modes in the area are expected to mitigate road user emissions over time when coupled with decarbonisation of the grid, and a switch to electric vehicles.

Whilst there is potential to reduce transport emissions, current key long-term climate change trends for Scotland suggest that average temperatures would increase across all seasons; typically, summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on this package of interventions. Heavy rainfall events will become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents. These events have the potential to flood railway lines, or wash sections away, leading to significant disruption on the rail network and a resultant knock-on impact on other transport modes and routes.

Paved surfaces created as part of the four bypasses, active travel infrastructure, targeted road safety improvements, and bus priority measures included in this package might incur surface damage or be impacted by surface water flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. There is also an increased risk of thermal expansion and movement of paved surfaces due to increased summer temperatures. Higher summer temperatures might also lead to overheating and damage of electrical equipment developed as part of the ‘Electric Corridor’ intervention. Infrastructure might also be inaccessible during other extreme weather events.

In order to account for the effects of climate change, the infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to predicted impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions, in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures would be considered at later design development stages to address potential extreme weather events that is anticipated to affect the region, and other likely climate risks.

As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective, in both With and Without Policy scenarios.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Air Quality

Although this package is anticipated to have an overall negative impact in terms of air quality, it would have some positive effects on air quality within the bypassed settlements. The inclusion of bypasses has the potential to reduce existing air quality concerns within the settlements of Elgin and Keith, and to a lesser extent, Forres and Inverurie by reducing traffic volumes on the existing A96 Trunk Road through each settlement. Traffic modelling indicates that traffic flows could reduce by between 30% and 85% through the towns, depending on the location. Traffic modelling indicates that, at a daily level, the introduction of a bypass at Elgin is anticipated to reduce traffic on the existing A96 through the town by between approximately 25% and 35% in both directions in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively. At Inverurie, modelling indicates that the bypass would reduce traffic on the existing A96 by approximately 85% eastbound and 35% westbound in both scenarios. Reductions on the existing A96 at Forres are anticipated to be approximately 50% to 60% in both directions in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, and at Keith a reduction of through trips of approximately 65% is anticipated eastbound and 85% westbound in both scenarios. The bypasses however may result in an increase in the use of private vehicles due to the reduction in congestion, which may lead to a reduction in air quality in the vicinity of the bypass alignments and the wider A96 Corridor itself. In addition, the promotion of vehicles with lower or zero emissions through the inclusion of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities should help to reduce vehicle emissions and thereby reduce overall air pollution.

Following the introduction of Package 1, total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are predicted to increase, under both the With and Without Policy scenarios over the 60-year appraisal period. This is due to an increase in traffic flows and emissions as congestion is reduced following the inclusion of the proposed bypasses. Emissions are anticipated to reduce within the bypassed settlements as users are encouraged to transfer to more sustainable modes The package is predicted to increase NOx and particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less (PM _2.5 ) emissions by 4 tonnes in the With Policy Scenario; and NOx by 46 tonnes and PM _2.5 emissions by 19 tonnes in the Without Policy Scenario, over the 60-year appraisal period. There are however opportunities for the transport interventions to promote and facilitate sustainable travel and assist in reducing transport related air pollution along the corridor.

By reducing the traffic through Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie through the introduction of bypasses, and noting the Nairn bypass committed as part of the A96 Dualling Inverness to Nairn (including Nairn Bypass) scheme, there is also an opportunity to increase the active travel opportunities within these settlements. This could further reduce the use of private vehicles, with a positive effect on air quality.

This package has the potential to have positive effects on air quality. The inclusion of infrastructure interventions in the settlements to promote walking, cycling and public transport use, should reduce vehicles travelling around and between settlements. The active travel interventions within the settlements would result in an overall decrease in vehicles to the betterment of air quality within the settlement. There would also be a reduction in HGV traffic through a modal shift in freight to the rail network. In addition, the promotion of vehicles with lower or no emissions through the inclusion of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities should help to reduce vehicle emissions and thereby reduce overall air pollution.

Following the introduction of Package 2, total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are predicted to decrease, under both the With and Without Policy scenarios. This is due to a decrease in traffic flows and emissions as a result of the potential interventions, which are anticipated to reduce congestion as users are encouraged to transfer to more sustainable modes and reduced emissions from low emission vehicles which would benefit from new alternative refuelling infrastructure along the A96 Trunk Road. The package is predicted to decrease NOx by 1 tonne and particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less (PM _2.5 ) emissions by 2 tonnes in the With Policy Scenario; and NOx by 8 tonnes and PM _2.5 emissions by 3 tonnes in the Without Policy Scenario, over the 60-year appraisal period. There are however opportunities for the transport interventions to promote and facilitate sustainable travel and assist in reducing transport related air pollution along the corridor.

This package has the potential to have positive effects on air quality. The promotion of vehicles with lower or no emissions through the inclusion of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities should help to reduce vehicle emissions and thereby reduce overall air pollution. The inclusion of improved public transport infrastructure as well as continuous high quality active travel connections would help reduce reliance on vehicles for travelling between settlements resulting in an overall decrease in vehicles to the betterment of air quality. There would also be a reduction in HGV traffic through a modal shift in freight to the rail network.

Following the introduction of Package 3, total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are predicted to decrease, under both the With and Without Policy scenarios. This is due to a decrease in traffic flows and emissions as a result of the potential interventions, which are anticipated to reduce congestion as users are encouraged to transfer to more sustainable modes and reduced emissions from low emission vehicles which would benefit from new alternative refuelling infrastructure along the A96 Trunk Road. The package would decrease emissions over the 60-year appraisal period. There is a predicted decrease of one tonne of NOx and two tonnes of PM _2.5 emissions in the With Policy Scenario; and a decrease of seven tonnes of NOx and two tonnes of PM _2.5 emissions in the Without Policy Scenario.

This package has the potential to have positive effects on air quality. The promotion of vehicles with lower or no emissions through the inclusion of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities should help to reduce vehicle emissions and thereby reduce overall air pollution. The inclusion of infrastructure interventions in the settlements to promote walking and cycling and public transport use would help reduce reliance on private vehicles throughout the network, resulting in an overall decrease in vehicles to the betterment of air quality within the settlements. In addition, the inclusion of continuous high quality active travel connections would help reduce reliance on vehicles for travelling between settlements. There would also be a reduction in HGV traffic through a modal shift in freight to the rail network.

Following the introduction of Package 4, total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are predicted to decrease under both the ’With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios over a 60-year appraisal period. This is due to a decrease in traffic flows and emissions as a result of the potential interventions, which are anticipated to reduce congestion as users are encouraged to transfer to more sustainable modes and reduced emissions from low emission vehicles which would benefit from new alternative refuelling infrastructure along the A96 Trunk Road. The package would decrease GHG emissions over the 60-year appraisal period. There is a predicted decrease in NOx of two tonnes and three tonnes for PM of 2.5 microns or less (PM _2.5 ) emissions in the ’With Policy’ Scenario; and a decrease of 12 tonnes of NOx and four tonnes of PM _2.5 in the ’Without Policy’ Scenario.

Although, this package is anticipated to have an overall negative impact in terms of air quality, it also has the potential to have positive effects on air quality within the bypassed settlements. The inclusion of bypasses has the potential to reduce existing air quality concerns within Elgin and Keith and to a lesser extent Forres and Inverurie by reducing traffic volumes on the existing A96 Trunk Road through each of them. Traffic modelling indicating that traffic flows could reduce by between 25% and 85% through the towns, depending on the location. Traffic modelling indicates that, at a daily level, the introduction of a bypass at Elgin is anticipated to reduce traffic on the A96 through the town by between approximately 25% and 35% in both directions in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively. At Inverurie, modelling indicates that the bypass would reduce traffic on the existing A96 by approximately 85% eastbound and 35% westbound in both scenarios. Reductions on the existing A96 at Forres are anticipated to be approximately 50% to 60% in both directions in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios and at Keith, a reduction of through trips of approximately 65% is anticipated eastbound and 85% westbound in both scenarios. The bypasses however may result in an increase in the use of private vehicles due to the reduction in congestion, which may lead to a reduction in air quality in the vicinity of the bypass alignments and indeed the wider A96 corridor itself.

The scale of negative impacts on overall air quality can also be reduced through other interventions within the package. The promotion of vehicles with lower or zero emissions through the inclusion of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities should help to reduce vehicle emissions and thereby reduce overall air pollution. The inclusion of infrastructure interventions in the settlements to promote walking and cycling and public transport use would help reduce reliance on private vehicles throughout the network, resulting in an overall decrease in vehicles to the betterment of air quality within the settlement. In addition, continuous high quality active travel connections would help reduce reliance on vehicles for travelling between settlements. There would also be a reduction in HGV traffic through a modal shift in freight to the rail network.

Following the introduction of Package 5, total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are predicted to increase, under both the With and Without Policy scenarios. This is due to an increase in traffic flows and emissions as congestion is reduced following the inclusion of the proposed bypasses. Emissions are anticipated to reduce within the bypassed settlements as users are encouraged to transfer to more sustainable modes The package is predicted to increase NOx and particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less (PM _2.5 ) emissions by 2 tonnes in the With Policy Scenario; and NOx by 45 tonnes and PM _2.5 emissions by 17 tonnes in the Without Policy Scenario, over the 60-year appraisal period. There are however opportunities for the transport interventions to promote and facilitate sustainable travel and assist in reducing transport related air pollution along the corridor.

By reducing the traffic through Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie through the introduction of bypasses, and noting the Nairn bypass committed as part of the A96 Dualling Inverness to Nairn (including Nairn bypass) scheme, there is also an opportunity to increase the active travel opportunities within these settlements. This could further reduce the use of private vehicles, with a positive effect on air quality.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Negative

Population and Human Health
Quality of life and sustainable access

This package could increase sustainable access to essential services by directly improving access to local health and wellbeing infrastructure, a result of improved active travel provision, improved public transport interchange and improving the journey time and frequency of rail services. It could therefore improve access to health and wellbeing facilities in the wider A96 corridor area, for example Raigmore Hospital in Inverness and Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, through improved linkages to public transport services. The removal of through traffic from Elgin is also anticipated to reduce congestion which should provide benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, such as Dr Gray’s Hospital, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

This package could also improve quality of life by improving the public realm, employing placemaking initiatives, providing opportunities for people to gather and socialise, and therefore enabling residents to feel more connected with their local community.

The options within this package could see a modal shift to sustainable transport, including bus, rail, walking, wheeling and cycling, and help create a sense of place. The increased opportunities to travel by these modes would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services, employment opportunities and healthcare. The active travel improvements within the settlements would have a positive environmental effect for the communities and physical fitness. These improvements would help create a sense of place and promote walking, wheeling and cycling to the benefit of the population.

The implementation of DRT and MaaS within this package could increase the efficiency of service provision and improve sustainable access to labor markets, key centres of employment, education and training. For example, accessibility increases include 8200 additional people being within a 60-minute journey time via public transport to a higher education site, as well as 5,900 additional people being able to access the nearest major shopping centre within a 40-minute journey time via public transport. The increased provision of alternative transport modes will promote sustainable access.

This package supports modal shift to more sustainable transport modes including bus, rail, walking, wheeling and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these modes would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services, employment opportunities and healthcare. In addition, the network improvements could reduce disruption and congestion and increase safety and accessibility.

The new active travel infrastructure would help create a sense of place and promote active modes of travel resulting in a positive impact on human health through improved physical fitness and access to healthcare, and reduced community severance.

An uptake in active travel may improve the quality of life for those who are most vulnerable to air pollution due to the improvement of air quality, reducing the frequency and severity of adverse health effects from traffic-related emissions.

The proposals are likely to have positive effects in terms of communities and physical fitness. The options could see a modal shift to sustainable transport methods including bus, rail, walking, wheeling and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these methods would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services, employment opportunities and healthcare particularly along the A96 corridor. In addition, this package could reduce disruption and congestion, and increase safety and congestion and increase accessibility. The active travel improvements within and between the settlements would have a positive environmental effect for the communities and physical fitness.

Enhancements to the active travel network to provide direct routes to public transport interchange points and stations would also benefit accessibility to key health and wellbeing services.

The provision of active communities within this package would reduce the need for people to travel unsustainably and enhance the sense of place, encouraging the local communities to spend more time in their local areas.

This package could directly improve access to local health and wellbeing infrastructure, a result of improved active travel provision, improved public transport interchange and improving the journey time and frequency of rail services. It could therefore improve access to health and wellbeing facilities across the wider A96 Corridor, for example Raigmore Hospital in Inverness, Dr Gray’s Hospital in Elgin and Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, through improved linkages to public transport services. The removal of through traffic from Elgin is also anticipated to reduce congestion which should provide benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, such as Dr Gray’s Hospital, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

The proposals within this package are also likely to have positive effects in terms of communities and physical fitness. The options could see a modal shift to sustainable transport methods including bus, rail, walking and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these methods would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services, employment opportunities and healthcare particularly along the A96 corridor. In addition, this package of A96 improvements could reduce disruption and congestion and increase safety and accessibility. The active travel improvements between the settlements would have a positive environmental effect for the communities and physical fitness.

Enhancements to the active travel network to provide direct routes to public transport interchange points and stations would also benefit accessibility to key health and wellbeing services.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Moderate Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Moderate Positive

Population and Human Health
Noise and

Vibration

There would be positive effects following the implementation of this package in terms of a potential reduction in noise and vibration within the settlements of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie, with the provision of bypasses and the associated reduction in the volume of traffic passing through the settlements. Scotland’s Noise Map illustrates that vehicle noise from the A96 Trunk Road is a significant contributor of noise within these settlements and thereby noise effects could be reduced through both the reduction of vehicles by the interventions within this package and the bypassing of settlements by a large proportion of the vehicles. Noise associated with vehicles would however be prevalent along the bypass routes which could have significant effects depending on their alignment and proximity of receptors although noise mitigation could be incorporated. Furthermore, this package has the potential to have negative effects in terms of noise and vibration through the increase of freight on the railway and any associated rail freight facilities. The significance of the effect would depend on the location of such facilities.

This package aims to promote a shift to sustainable modes of travel, which could see a reduction in road traffic, with positive effects in terms of noise and vibration within and around settlements. There may be a reduction in noise (from both engine and tyres) and vibration from reduced vehicle use in the short term and then reduction in noise (from engines) should electric vehicles come to prominence. Scotland’s Noise Map illustrates that vehicle noise from the A96 Trunk Road is a significant contributor of noise within settlements and along the A96 Trunk Road generally. The modal shift to sustainable modes of transport and away from the private car should help reduce vehicle noise and vibration along the A96 and within settlements. However, this package has the potential to have negative effects in terms of noise and vibration through the increase of freight on the railway and any associated rail freight facilities. The significance of the effect would depend on the location of such facilities.

This package aims to promote a shift to sustainable modes of travel, which could see a reduction in road traffic, with positive effects in terms of noise and vibration within and around settlements. There may be a reduction in noise (from both engines and road-tyre interaction) and vibration from reduced vehicle use in the short term and then reduction in noise (from engines) should electric vehicles come to prominence. Scotland’s Noise Map illustrates that vehicle noise from the A96 Trunk Road is a significant noise contributor in the area. This package does, however, have the potential to have localised minor negative effects within the vicinity of the railway and any associated rail line improvements, as a result of the increase in rail freight and an associated increase in noise and vibration. The construction of interventions included in this package and associated traffic is also likely to lead to minor negative effects on noise and vibration during the construction phase. The significance of these effects would depend on the location and scale of any construction work. Overall, and in the operational phase, the modal shift to rail freight, sustainable modes of transport and away from the private car should result in positive effects in terms of noise and vibration through the reduction of vehicles on the A96.

This package aims to promote a shift to sustainable modes of travel which could see a reduction in road traffic, with positive effects in terms of noise and vibration within and around settlements. There may be a reduction in noise (from both engines and road-tyre interactions) and vibration from reduced vehicle use in the short term and then reduction in noise (from engines) should electric vehicles come to prominence. Scotland’s Noise Map2 illustrates that the A96 Trunk Road is a significant noise contributor in the area. This package, however, may potentially have negative effects within the vicinity of the railway and any associated rail freight facilities as a result of the increase in rail freight and an associated increase in noise and vibration. The significance of the effect would depend on the location of such facilities. Overall, the modal shift to sustainable modes of transport and away from the private car should help reduce vehicle noise and vibration along the A96 and within settlements.

There would be positive effects following the implementation of this package in terms of a potential reduction in noise and vibration within the settlements of Forres, Elgin, Keith and Inverurie, with the provision of bypasses and the associated reduction in the volume of traffic passing through the settlements. Scotland’s Noise Map illustrates that noise from vehicles using the A96 Trunk Road is a significant contributor of noise within these settlements and thereby noise effects could be reduced through the interventions within this package, including the potential shift to electric vehicles and the bypassing of settlements by a significant proportion of vehicles. Noise associated with vehicles would however be prevalent along the bypass routes which could have significant effects depending on their alignment and proximity to receptors, although various forms of noise mitigation could be incorporated. Furthermore, this package has the potential to have negative effects in terms of noise and vibration through the increase of freight on the railway and any associated rail freight facilities. The construction of interventions included in this package and associated traffic is also likely to lead to minor negative effects on noise and vibration during the construction phase. The significance of these effects would depend on the location of such facilities and scale of any construction work.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Uncertain

Population and Human Health
High quality places

Enhanced placemaking, and the creation of active communities, along with reducing demand for unsustainable travel for shorter everyday trips, would offer improvements to visual amenity in communities where centres become more about a sense of place rather than a connection of roads for the purpose of movement. Improved routes and crossing facilities for walking, wheeling and cycling would also offer better access to existing local green space. Improved public realm allows for people to gather and socialise. Studies have linked the quality of public spaces to people’s perceptions of attractiveness of an area, contributing towards their quality of life.

Enhanced placemaking, along with reducing demand for unsustainable travel for shorter everyday trips, would offer improvements to visual amenity in communities where centres become more about a sense of place rather than a connection of roads for the purpose of movement. Improved routes and crossing facilities for walking, wheeling and cycling would also offer better access to existing local green space. Improved public realm allows for people to gather and socialise. Studies have linked the quality of public spaces to people’s perceptions of attractiveness of an area, contributing towards their quality of life.

However, there is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of any new road infrastructure, including safety improvements and the development of new alternative fuelling stations. The rail improvements are also likely to impact on visual amenity where passing loops and freight yards are created. This would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of this aspect of the package.

This package would lead to positive effects on placemaking as it helps to create a better sense of place through increased levels of activity within settlements and improve the feeling of connectivity between settlements along the A96 corridor. The package will encourage a mode shift to active modes for longer and shorter trips, which would enhance health and wellbeing.

However, there is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of any new road infrastructure, including safety improvements and the development of new alternative fuelling stations. The rail improvements are also likely to impact on visual amenity where passing loops and freight yards are created. This would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of this aspect of the package.

As the package focuses on longer distance travel, the impacts would predominantly affect those who travel between communities along the A96 Corridor or into Aberdeen and Inverness at either end of the route. Those who travel internally within settlements would also see some benefits to local placemaking where active travel routes are introduced or enhanced to facilitate the fully integrated route between Aberdeen and Inverness, or to connect with local transport hubs and public transport interchanges.

High-quality travel routes between settlements along the A96 corridor also form part of this package. Through connecting communities, the creation of safe crossings in rural areas, providing safe, attractive, and convenient choices for many functional and recreational journeys, enables people to benefit from improved access to key trip attractors in neighboring settlements, whilst using sustainable travel modes

However, there is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of any new road infrastructure, including safety improvements and the development of new alternative fuelling stations. The long-distance active travel connection is also likely to remove greenspace and replace it with active travel infrastructure, including lighting and signage. This would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of this aspect of the package.

Enhanced placemaking, along with reducing demand for unsustainable travel for shorter everyday trips, would also offer improvements to visual amenity in communities where centres become more about a sense of place rather than a connection of roads for the purpose of movement. Improved routes and crossing facilities for walking, wheeling and cycling would also offer better access to existing local green space. Improved public realm allows for people to gather and socialise. Studies have linked the quality of public spaces to people’s perceptions of attractiveness of an area, contributing towards their quality of life.

However, there is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of any new road infrastructure, including safety improvements and the development of new alternative fuelling stations. The rail improvements are also likely to impact on visual amenity where passing loops and freight yards are created. This would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of this aspect of the package.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Population and Human Health
Safety

Personal security is likely to improve through an increase in people walking, wheeling and cycling in and around key communities along the A96 corridor as there would be an increase in natural surveillance. Furthermore, public realm improvements such as the provision of street lighting can prevent road traffic collisions and increase pedestrian activity through reduction in the fear of crime .

Public transport interchange improvements and DRT/MaaS may also improve personal security and make a safer network for travellers, either directly through improved security facilities at interchanges, such as improved lighting and CCTV coverage or indirectly through better passenger assistance or through minimising wait times. These interventions could therefore improve the attractiveness of public transport stops and stations as they would likely be perceived to be safer.

This package could directly improve access to local health and wellbeing infrastructure following the implementation of improved active travel provision, improved public transport interchange and reduced journey times and improved frequency of rail services. It could therefore improve access to health and wellbeing facilities in the wider A96 corridor area, for example Raigmore Hospital in Inverness and Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, through improved linkages to public transport services. The removal of through traffic from Elgin is also anticipated to reduce congestion which should provide benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, such as Dr Gray’s Hospital, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

Improved pedestrian and cycling infrastructure together with other specific interventions such as speed reduction can significantly reduce road casualties.

The following public transport interchange improvements and DRT may also improve personal security and make a safer network for travellers:

Improved security facilities at interchange opportunities through improved lighting and CCTV coverage

Better passenger assistance

Minimising wait times due to better information about services

Public transport stops and stations can become more attractive and would likely be perceived to be safer.

MaaS and DRT can also help those with mobility issues travel, thereby reducing social isolation by allowing trips to be made more easily.

These interventions could also deliver better access to healthcare and wellbeing infrastructure, with additional safety benefits where people are currently travelling longer distances to bus stops using roads with poor pedestrian infrastructure.

This package is also directly linked to Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030, and the NTS2 as it embeds the Safe System approach to road safety delivery.

Improved pedestrian and cycling infrastructure together with other specific interventions such as speed reduction can significantly reduce road casualties.

The options within this package could result in a modal shift to sustainable transport including bus, rail, walking, wheeling and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these modes would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services such as healthcare.

There would be some benefits to the wider corridor through interventions such as rail improvements but generally the package is targeted at those within the aforementioned settlements. This would limit the potential impact of the package on benefits achieved through aspects such as mode shift and vehicle kilometre reduction as the population in the affected settlements is small in relation to the wider corridor.

Safety would be improved and wait times would be minimised through better passenger assistance and provision of service information. Public transport stops and stations can become more attractive and would likely be perceived to be safer.

MaaS and DRT can also help those with mobility issues travel, thereby reducing social isolation by allowing trips to be made more easily. These interventions could also deliver better access to healthcare and wellbeing infrastructure, with additional safety benefits where people are currently travelling longer distances to bus stops using roads with poor pedestrian infrastructure.

Additionally, reducing vehicle trips with greater active travel trips and public transport use would contribute to fewer accidents on the network. A mode shift for freight to reduce the number of HGV trips would also contribute to this.

The provision and improvement of active travel infrastructure such as implementing segregated and traffic-free routes and providing safe opportunities for crossings in rural areas, would address safety concerns which are a significant barrier to the uptake of active travel. This would improve the personal security of vulnerable people and reduce the number of road traffic accidents if overall car use was reduced.

Through increasing the overall availability of alternative refuelling assets across the region and expanding coverage, the package should reduce the required distance to reach these assets and therefore the overall number of vehicle kilometres travelled. This could help contribute towards reducing the overall frequency of collisions and their associated causalities; however, this is likely to be minimal.

Safety would be improved through better passenger assistance or through minimising wait times due to better information about services. Public transport stops and stations can become more attractive and would likely be perceived to be safer.

Additionally, reducing vehicle trips with greater active travel trips and public transport use would contribute to fewer accidents on the network. A mode shift for freight to reduce the number of HGV trips would also contribute to this.

Safety conditions for cyclists could be improved with the provision of a direct and fully connected long distance active travel route within this package, which would offer uninterrupted journeys between and within settlements with adequate provisions at junctions and safe crossing points.

The provision of interventions that encourage walking, wheeling and cycling within communities can lead to residents feeling more connected with their local community and improve public health through increased physical activity. The interventions would also improve public realm, allowing people to gather and socialise, with Public Health Scotland linking the quality of public spaces to people’s perceptions of attractiveness of an area, positively contributing towards their quality of life .

The options within this package could result in a modal shift to sustainable transport including bus, rail, walking, wheeling and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these modes would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services such as healthcare. Modelling undertaken using NaPTAT indicates a journey time reduction to the nearest emergency department hospital in some settlements across the study area that rely on rail use for travelling by public transport. This includes Huntly, where a journey time reduction of up to six minutes to the nearest emergency department hospital is anticipated in the ‘with package’ assessment compared to the ‘without package’ assessment. Only considering journey times to the largest emergency department hospitals in the region, found in Aberdeen and Inverness, where more facilities and specialist services are available, the model indicates that journey times would be reduced from Elgin to Raigmore Hospital in Inverness. This journey time reduction would be approximately six minutes from most of the town, though could be up to 14 minutes from parts of New Elgin (to the south).

Personal security is likely to improve through an increase in people walking, wheeling and cycling in and around key communities along the A96 corridor as there would be an increase natural surveillance. Furthermore, public realm improvements such as the provision of street lighting can prevent road traffic collisions and increase pedestrian activity through reduction in the fear of crime.

Public transport interchange improvements and DRT/MaaS may also improve personal security and make a safer network for travellers, either directly through improved security facilities at interchanges, such as improved lighting and CCTV coverage or indirectly through better passenger assistance or through minimising wait times. These interventions could therefore improve the attractiveness of public transport stops and stations as they would likely be perceived to be safer.

Safety would also be improved through better passenger assistance or through minimising wait times due to better information about services. Public transport stops and stations can become more attractive and would likely be perceived to be safer.

MaaS and DRT can also help those with mobility issues travel, thereby reducing social isolation by allowing trips to be made more easily. These interventions could also deliver better access to healthcare and wellbeing infrastructure, with additional safety benefits where people are currently travelling longer distances to bus stops using roads with poor pedestrian infrastructure.

Additionally, reducing vehicle trips with greater active travel trips and public transport use would contribute to fewer accidents on the network. A mode shift for freight to reduce the number of HGV trips would also contribute to this.

This package could directly improve access to local health and wellbeing infrastructure following the implementation of improved active travel provision, improved public transport interchange and reduced journey times and improved frequency of rail services. It could therefore improve access to health and wellbeing facilities across the wider A96 corridor, for example Raigmore Hospital in Inverness, Dr Gray’s Hospital in Elgin and Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, through improved linkages to public transport services. The removal of through traffic from Elgin is also anticipated to reduce congestion which should provide benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, such as Dr Gray’s Hospital, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Moderate Positive

Material Assets

Sustainable

Transport

Potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes).

Potential opportunity for road schemes to improve surface conditions, and, alongside advancement in the types of materials used, reduce overall maintenance needs in the longer term, with associated positive effects.

Potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes).

Potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes).

Potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes).

Potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes).

Potential opportunity for road schemes to improve surface conditions, and, alongside advancement in the types of materials used, reduce overall maintenance needs in the longer term, with associated positive effects.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Minor Positive

Material Assets

Natural Resources

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several interventions in the proposed package (including four bypasses), there is potential for major negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage. Raw materials such as aggregate, non-metallic minerals, cement and sand are likely to be required for the construction of new transport infrastructure ⁱⁱ .

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several interventions in the proposed package, there is potential for negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage. Raw materials such as aggregate, non-metallic minerals, cement and sand are likely to be required for the construction of new transport infrastructure ⁱⁱ .

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several interventions in the proposed package, there is potential for negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage. Raw materials such as aggregate, non-metallic minerals, cement and sand are likely to be required for the construction of new transport infrastructure ⁱⁱ .

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several interventions in the proposed package, there is potential for negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage. Raw materials such as aggregate, non-metallic minerals, cement and sand are likely to be required for the construction of new transport infrastructure ⁱⁱ .

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several interventions in the proposed package (including four bypasses), there is potential for major negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Major Negative

Water Quality and Flood Risk

The bypasses and other construction works associated with this package have the potential for significant negative effects on the water environment. There are large areas of floodplain around Elgin associated with the River Lossie, some of which have flood mitigation. There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. There are also areas of flood risk around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don. These areas are potential constraints to the bypasses proposed. The construction of the bypasses also has the potential to have a negative impact on water quality of these water courses and consideration would be needed as to the alignment of the bypasses in terms of water crossings and bridge design.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential for significant negative effects in terms of water, drainage and flooding.

There are also large areas of floodplain around Elgin associated with the River Lossie, some of which have flood mitigation. There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. There are also areas of flood risk around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don. These areas are potential constraints to the proposed physical works associated with implementing this package.

The construction of the various elements of this package has the potential to have negative effects on the water quality of surrounding watercourses during the construction phase and consideration would be needed in terms of water crossings and bridge design.

The rail improvements at Keith have the potential to result in some negative effects on flooding due to the areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential to have negative effects in terms of water, drainage and flooding during the construction phase.

There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. There are also areas of flood risk around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don. These areas are potential constraints to the proposed physical works associated with implementing this package.

The construction of this package also has the potential to have an adverse impact on water quality of these water courses and consideration would be needed in terms of water crossings and bridge design. Any impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location.

The rail improvements at Keith have the potential to result in some negative effects on flooding due to the areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent.

Construction works have the potential to lead to moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations. For the continuous active travel route, this may need to follow the current A96 route.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential to have negative effects in terms of water, drainage and flooding during the construction phase. The impacts will be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location.

There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. There are also areas of flood risk around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don. These areas are potential constraints to the proposed physical works associated with implementing this package.

The construction of this package also has the potential to have an adverse impact on water quality of these water courses and consideration would be needed in terms of water crossings and bridge design. Any impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location.

The rail improvements at Keith have the potential to result in some negative effects on flooding due to the areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent.

The construction of Park and Ride facilities, larger rail freight facilities, long distance active travel routes and any improved overtaking opportunities as part of the A96 improvements has the potential to have moderate environmental effects, given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations. For the continuous active travel route, this may need to follow the current A96 route.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would depend on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The bypasses and other construction works associated with this package have the potential for significant negative effects on the water environment. There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. There are also areas of flood risk around Inverurie associated with the River Urie and River Don. The construction of the bypasses has the potential to have a negative effect on water quality of these water courses and consideration would be needed as to the alignment of the bypasses in terms of water crossings and bridge design.

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure also has the potential to have negative effects in terms of water, drainage and flooding of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location.

The rail improvements at Keith have the potential to result in some negative effects on flooding due to the areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent.

Construction works have the potential to lead to moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations. For the continuous active travel route, this may need to follow the current A96 route.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Biodiversity

The bypasses have the potential to have major negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape and forestry. These effects could be major negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects however, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. The construction of Park and Ride facilities and the DRT, bus priority and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is depending on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

The following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Elgin:

one Ramsar site

five SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

Inverurie:

parcels of ancient woodland

Keith:

two SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

Forres:

one SAC

two SPAs

one Ramsar site

three SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

In addition, interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

two Ramsar sites

12 SSSIs

three SAC

four SPAs

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape, historic environment, water drainage and flooding, geology and soils, agriculture and forestry, all of which could be significant, particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, and forestry. However, the extent of these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions.

The construction of Park and Ride facilities and the DRT, bus priority and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is depending on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. Similarly, works associated with the other non-rail interventions and measures within this package could have negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape, historic environment, water drainage and flooding, geology and soils, agriculture and forestry. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated.

The following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Lhanbryde:

one SSSI

Mosstodloch/Fochabers:

three SSSIs

one SPA

two SACs

one Ramsar site

In addition, interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

two Ramsar sites

12 SSSIs

three SACs

four SPAs

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape, historic environment, water drainage and flooding, geology and soils, agriculture and forestry, all of which could be significant, particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, and forestry. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be utilised through appropriate landscaping and tree planting to minimise these effects. Similarly, works associated with other interventions could also have negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, and forestry. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated.

The DRT, bus priority and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is depending on the extent of physical works and location.

The environmental effects are likely to be low.

The construction of Park and Ride facilities, long-distance active travel routes and any improved overtaking opportunities as part of the A96 improvements has the potential to have moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations.

Interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

two Ramsar sites

12 SSSIs

three SACs

four SPAs

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on biodiversity and habitats and forestry, all of which could be significant particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport improvements has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts will be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on biodiversity and habitats and forestry. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised visual and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be utilised through appropriate landscaping and tree planting to minimise these effects. Similarly, the other works could have negative effects on biodiversity and habitats and forestry. Some of these impacts may be short term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated.

The construction of larger rail freight facilities, long distance active travel routes and any improved overtaking opportunities as part of the A96 improvements has the potential to have moderate environmental effects, given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations. For the continuous active travel route, this may need to follow the current A96 route.

Interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

two Ramsar sites

12 SSSIs

three SACs

four SPAs

The scale of the effects of these proposals will be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment will be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on biodiversity and habitats, all of which could be significant particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The bypasses have the potential to have negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape and forestry. These effects could be major negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Elgin:

one Ramsar site

five SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

Inverurie:

parcels of ancient woodland

Keith:

two SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

Forres:

one SAC

two SPAs

one Ramsar site

three SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects however, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. The construction of Park and Ride facilities and the DRT, bus priority and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is dependent on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

Interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

two Ramsar sites

12 SSSIs

three SACs

four SPAs

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape, historic environment, water drainage and flooding, geology and soils, agriculture and forestry, all of which could be significant, particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Major Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Major Negative

Soils

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration and protection of archaeological resources.

The bypasses also have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint, including high grade agricultural land, Geological Conservation Review sites, carbon rich soils and peat.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration and protection of archaeological resources.

The physical works associated with implementing the package have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration and protection of archaeological resources.

The physical works associated with implementing the package have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration and protection of archaeological resources.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, such as introducing rail freight terminals, have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration and protection of archaeological resources.

The physical works associated with implementing the package such as introducing rail freight terminals, have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint.

The bypasses also have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint, including high grade agricultural land, Geological Conservation Review sites, carbon rich soils and peat.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Cultural Heritage

The bypasses and other construction works associated with this package have the potential to have negative effects on cultural heritage. These effects could be moderate negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects however, these effects may be limited, considering there are no cultural heritage designations in the areas of proposed interventions. The DRT, bus priority and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is dependent on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

The following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Elgin

four Scheduled Monuments

two Conservation Areas

Inverurie

one Garden and Designed Landscape

two Scheduled Monuments

one Inventory of Historic Battlefields Sites

Keith

one Scheduled Monument

two Conservation Areas

Forres

one Garden and Designed Landscape

two Scheduled Monuments

one Conservation Area

In addition, interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

three Inventory of Historic Battlefields Sites

seven Gardens and Designed Landscapes

seven Scheduled Monuments

The scale of the effects will be dependent on the design and alignment of the dualling and further detailed environmental assessment would need to be undertaken as part of any further option development. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on historic environment, all of which could be significant, particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects on cultural heritage. However, the extent of these effects may be limited, considering there are no cultural heritage designations in the areas of proposed interventions.

The following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Lhanbryde:

one Garden and Designated Landscape

Mosstodloch/Fochabers:

one Conservation Area

one Garden and Designated Landscape

In addition, interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

three Inventory of Historic Battlefields Sites

seven Gardens and Designed Landscapes

seven Scheduled Monuments

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on historic environment which could be significant particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on cultural heritage. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no cultural heritage designations in the areas of proposed interventions.

The construction works have the potential to have moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations.

Interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

three Inventory of Historic Battlefields Sites

seven Gardens and Designed Landscapes

seven Scheduled Monuments

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on historic environment, all of which could be significant particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts will be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on cultural heritages. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no cultural heritage designations in the areas of proposed interventions.

The construction of larger rail freight facilities, long distance active travel routes and any improved overtaking opportunities as part of the A96 improvements has the potential to have moderate environmental effects, given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations. For the continuous active travel route, this may need to follow the current A96 route.

Interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

three Inventory of Historic Battlefields Sites

seven Gardens and Designed Landscapes

seven Scheduled Monuments

The scale of the effects of these proposals will be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment will be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on the historic environment which could be significant particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The bypasses and other construction works associated with this package have the potential to have negative effects on cultural heritage. These effects could be moderate negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including improving public transport interchanges, linespeed improvements and increasing passenger and freight capacity have the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on cultural heritage. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no cultural heritage designations in the areas of proposed interventions.

The construction works have the potential to have moderate environmental effects, given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations.

Interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

three Inventory of Historic Battlefields Sites

seven Gardens and Designed Landscapes

seven Scheduled Monuments

In relation to the bypasses, the following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Elgin

four Scheduled Monuments

two Conservation Areas

Inverurie

one Garden and Designed Landscape

two Scheduled Monuments

one Inventory of Historic Battlefields

Keith

one Scheduled Monument

two Conservation Areas

Forres

one Garden and Designed Landscape

two Scheduled Monuments

one Conservation Area

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on historic environment, all of which could be significant, particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Landscape

The bypasses and improvements to public transport interchanges have the potential to have negative effects on landscape. These effects could be moderate negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects however, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. The DRT, bus priority and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is dependent on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

The following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Forres

Findhorn Valley and the Wooded Estates LLA

Cluny Hill LLA

Elgin

Quarrelwood LLA

Spynie LLA

Inverurie

Bennachie LLA

In addition, according to the National Forest Inventory, wooded areas occur along the entire study area, including concentrated areas on the outskirts of the towns of Forres and Keith. In the southern part of the study area near Inverurie, there is less forestation than in the north. Conifers predominate, but there are also areas of fallen trees, broadleaved trees and young trees. According to the Ancient Woodland Inventory, long-established areas (of plantation origin) are found mainly from Inverness to Huntly.

There are also various Tree Preservation Orders scattered through the study area, including several close to the existing A96 for example at Nairn, Keith and Thainstone.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure have the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects on landscape. However, the extent of these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions.

There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. Similarly, works associated with the other non-rail interventions and measures within this package could have negative effects on landscape. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated.

Mosstodloch

Spey Valley LLA

Lower Spey and Gordon Castle Policies LLA

Fochabers

Spey Valley LLA

Lower Spey and Gordon Castle Policies LLA

Huntly

Deveron Valley LLA

Kintore

Bennachie LLA

In addition, according to the National Forest Inventory, wooded areas occur along the entire study area. In the southern part of the study area near Inverurie, there is less forestation than in the north. Conifers predominate, but there are also areas of fallen trees, broadleaved trees and young trees. According to the Ancient Woodland Inventory, long-established areas (of plantation origin) are found mainly from Inverness to Huntly.

There are also various Tree Preservation Orders scattered through the study area, including several close to the existing A96 for example at Thainstone near Kintore.

The eastern end of the study area (including Blackburn) is within the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Greenbelt, the purpose of which is to help avoid coalescence of settlements and sprawling development on the edge of the city, maintain Aberdeen's landscape setting, and provide access to open space.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure have the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on landscape. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be utilised through appropriate landscaping and tree planting to minimise these effects. Similarly, works associated with other interventions could also have negative effects on landscape historic environment. Some of these impacts may be short term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated.

The construction works as part of this package have the potential to have moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations.

30 distinct Landscape Character Types (LCTs) between Inverness and Aberdeen

13 Local Landscape Areas (LLAs)

In addition, according to the National Forest Inventory, wooded areas occur along the entire study area, concentrating on the outskirts of the towns of Nairn, Forres and Keith. In the southern part of the study area near Inverurie, there is less forestation than in the north. Conifers predominate, but there are also areas of fallen trees, broadleaved trees and young trees. According to the Ancient Woodland Inventory, long-established areas (of plantation origin) are found mainly from Inverness to Huntly.

There are also various Tree Preservation Orders scattered through the study area, including several close to the existing A96 for example at Nairn, Keith and Thainstone.

The eastern end of the study area is within the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Greenbelt, the purpose of which is to help avoid coalescence of settlements and sprawling development on the edge of the city, maintain Aberdeen's landscape setting, and provide access to open space.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including new active travel, road safety, electric vehicle and public transport infrastructure have the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts will be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects landscape and visual amenity, However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised visual effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be utilised through appropriate landscaping and tree planting to minimise these effects. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated.

The construction of larger rail freight facilities, long distance active travel routes and any improved overtaking opportunities as part of the A96 improvements has the potential to have moderate environmental effects, given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations. For the continuous active travel route, this may need to follow the current A96 route.

30 distinct Landscape Character Types (LCTs) between Inverness and Aberdeen

13 Local Landscape Areas (LLAs)

In addition, according to the National Forest Inventory, wooded areas occur along the entire study area, concentrating on the outskirts of the towns of Nairn, Forres and Keith. In the southern part of the study area near Inverurie, there is less forestation than in the north. Conifers predominate, but there are also areas of fallen trees, broadleaved trees and young trees. According to the Ancient Woodland Inventory, long-established areas (of plantation origin) are found mainly from Inverness to Huntly.

There are also various Tree Preservation Orders scattered through the study area, including several close to the existing A96 for example at Nairn, Keith and Thainstone.

The eastern end of the study area is within the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Greenbelt, the purpose of which is to help avoid coalescence of settlements and sprawling development on the edge of the city, maintain Aberdeen's landscape setting, and provide access to open space.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress.

The bypasses and improvements to public transport interchanges have the potential to have negative effects on landscape. These effects could be moderate negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects however, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. The DRT, bus priority and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is dependent on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

In relation to the bypasses, the following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Forres

Findhorn Valley and the Wooded Estates LLA

Cluny Hill LLA

Elgin

Quarrelwood LLA

Spynie LLA

Inverurie

Bennachie LLA

The construction works as part of the other interventions in this package also have the potential to have moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations.

30 distinct Landscape Character Types (LCTs) between Inverness and Aberdeen

13 Local Landscape Areas (LLAs)

In addition, according to the National Forest Inventory, wooded areas occur along the entire study area, including concentrated areas on the outskirts of the towns of Forres and Keith. In the southern part of the study area near Inverurie, there is less forestation than in the north. Conifers predominate, but there are also areas of fallen trees, broadleaved trees and young trees. According to the Ancient Woodland Inventory, long-established areas (of plantation origin) are found mainly from Inverness to Huntly.

There are also various Tree Preservation Orders scattered through the study area, including several close to the existing A96 for example at Nairn, Keith and Thainstone.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Minor Negative

Moderate Negative

Climatic Factors: Greenhouse Gases (GHG)

Based on the estimated cost range between £501m and £1,000m for this package, GHG emissions arising from the construction stage of this package are estimated to be in the range of approximately 140,000 tCO ₂ e to 280,000 tCO ₂ e.

Traffic flows and emissions around the A96 increase as a result of this package, due to reduced congestion and an attraction of traffic onto this part of the network. There is therefore a net increase in GHG emissions. The estimated increase in road users GHG emissions over the 60-year appraisal period between the ‘with package’ and ‘without package’ scenarios is approximately 2,300 tCO2e under the ’With Policy’ Scenario and 88,000 tCO2e under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

The Net Present Value of tCO2e, calculated using the DfT GHG Workbook following the Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A3 for the appraisal period, indicates an estimated disbenefit under the ’With Policy’ Scenario of approximately (-) <£0.5m, and (-) £5m-£10m under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Climatic Factors: Climate

Adaptation

The existing A96 Trunk Road is considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas with a high risk of flooding such as the floodplains associated with the River Lossie near Elgin, and flood risk areas around Keith associated with the River Isla, or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Such areas identified in the environmental assessment for this package are the floodplains associated with the River Lossie near Elgin, and flood risk areas around Keith associated with the River Isla, or locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated.

The transport network improvements are expected to improve the resilience to identified flood risk areas, and other potential climate risks. The enhancements in the transport infrastructure to encourage sustainable transport modes in the area have the potential to partially mitigate road user GHG emissions over time when coupled with decarbonisation of the grid, and a switch to electric vehicles.

Despite this, key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are that average temperatures will increase across all seasons; typically, summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on this package. Heavy rainfall events are anticipated to become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents.

Whilst there is potential to reduce transport based GHG emissions, key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are that average temperatures will increase across all seasons; typically summers will be warmer and drier, and winters will be milder and wetter. These are likely to have an impact on this package of interventions. Heavy rainfall events will become more frequent in the coming decades, exacerbating flooding and landslide incidents. These events have the potential to flood railway lines, or wash sections away, leading to significant disruption on the rail network and a resultant knock-on impact on other transport modes and routes.

Paved surfaces created as part of the Refined Package options (Elgin and Keith bypasses, active travel infrastructure, and targeted road safety improvements) might incur surface damage or be impacted by surface water flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. There is also an increased risk of thermal expansion and movement of paved surfaces due to increased summer temperatures. Higher summer temperatures might also lead to overheating and damage of electrical equipment developed as part of the A96 Electric Corridor intervention. Infrastructure might also be inaccessible during extreme weather events.

In order to account for the effects of climate change, the infrastructure would be designed to be resilient to predicted impacts arising from current and future weather events and climatic conditions, in accordance with current planning, design, engineering practice, and codes. A number of mitigation and adaptation measures would be considered at later design development stages to address potential extreme weather events that are anticipated to affect the region, and other likely climate risks.

As there is considerable uncertainty associated with the future impacts of climate change and any construction design is yet to be developed, an uncertain score has been assigned for the climate adaptation SEA objective, in both With and Without Policy scenarios.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Air Quality

Although this package is anticipated to have an overall negative impact in terms of air quality, it also has the potential to have positive effects on air quality within the bypassed settlements. The inclusion of bypasses has the potential to reduce existing air quality concerns within Elgin and Keith by reducing traffic volumes on the existing A96 Trunk Road through each of them.

Traffic modelling indicates that, at a daily level, the introduction of a bypass at Elgin is anticipated to reduce traffic on the A96 through the town by between approximately 25% and 35% in both directions in the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios respectively. At Keith, a reduction of through trips of approximately 65% is anticipated eastbound and up to 85% westbound in both scenarios. The bypasses may result in an increase in the use of private vehicles due to the reduction in congestion, which may have a negative impact on air quality in the vicinity of the bypass alignments and indeed the wider A96 corridor itself.

The scale of negative impacts on air quality can be reduced through interventions within the package. The inclusion of bypasses has the potential to reduce existing air quality concerns within the settlements of Elgin and Keith by reducing the traffic passing through them. Furthermore, the inclusion of infrastructure interventions in the settlements to promote walking, cycling and public transport use could help reduce reliance on private vehicles throughout the network, resulting in an overall decrease in vehicles to the betterment of air quality within the settlements. In addition, the promotion of vehicles with lower or zero tailpipe GHG emissions through the inclusion of alternative refuelling infrastructure and facilities should help to reduce vehicle emissions. There would also be a reduction in HGV traffic through a modal shift in freight to the rail network, and thereby a reduction in overall air pollution.

Following the introduction of the Refined Package, total emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) are predicted to increase, under both the With and Without Policy scenarios. This is due to an increase in traffic flows and emissions as congestion is reduced following the inclusion of the proposed bypasses. Emissions are anticipated to reduce within the bypassed settlements as users are encouraged to transfer to more sustainable modes The package is predicted to increase NOx by two tonnes and particulate matter of 2.5 microns or less (PM _2.5 ) emissions by less than 1 tonne in the ’With Policy’ Scenario; and NOx by 43 tonnes and PM _2.5 emissions by 13 tonnes in the Without Policy Scenario, over the 60-year appraisal period. There are however opportunities for the transport interventions to promote and facilitate sustainable travel and assist in reducing transport-related air pollution along the corridor.

Overall, a minor negative impact on air quality is predicted for the Refined Package.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Population and Human Health Quality of life and sustainable access

This package could directly improve access to local health and wellbeing infrastructure, a result of improved active travel provision, improved public transport interchange and improving the journey time and frequency of rail services. It could therefore improve access to health and wellbeing facilities in the wider A96 corridor area, for example Raigmore Hospital in Inverness, Dr Gray’s Hospital in Elgin and Aberdeen Royal Infirmary, through improved linkages to public transport services. The removal of through traffic from Elgin is also anticipated to reduce congestion which should provide benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, such as Dr Gray’s Hospital, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

The proposals within this package are also likely to have positive effects in terms of communities and physical fitness. The options could see a modal shift to sustainable transport methods including bus, rail, walking and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these methods would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services, employment opportunities and healthcare particularly along the A96 corridor. In addition, this package of A96 improvements could reduce disruption and congestion and increase safety and accessibility. The active travel improvements between the settlements would have a positive environmental effect for the communities and physical fitness.

Enhancements to the active travel network to provide direct routes to public transport interchange points and stations would also benefit accessibility to key health and wellbeing services.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Population and Human Health Noise and

Vibration

There would be positive effects in terms of a potential reduction in noise and vibration within the settlements of Elgin and Keith, with the provision of bypasses and the associated reduction in the volume of traffic passing through the settlements.

The active communities and public transport interventions associated with this package are also likely to reduce noise and vibration from vehicle traffic if the interventions lead to a modal shift.

This package may also create positive effects in terms of noise and vibration within and around settlements. The package aims to promote a shift to sustainable modes of traffic which could see a reduction in traffic. Scotland’s Noise Map illustrates that the A96 Trunk Road is a significant noise contributor in the area. The modal shift to sustainable modes of transport and away from the private car should help reduce vehicle noise and vibration along the A96 and within settlements.

Scotland’s Noise Map illustrates that vehicle noise from the A96 Trunk Road is a significant contributor of noise within these settlements and thereby noise effects could be reduced through both the reduction of vehicles by the interventions within this package and the bypassing of settlements by a large proportion of the vehicles. Noise associated with vehicles would however be prevalent along the bypass routes which could have significant effects depending on their alignment and proximity of receptors although noise mitigation could be incorporated.

However, this package also has the potential to have negative effects in terms of noise and vibration through the increase of freight on the railway and any associated rail freight facilities. The significance of the effect would depend on the location of such facilities.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Uncertain

Population and Human Health High quality places

Enhanced placemaking, along with reduced demand for unsustainable travel for shorter everyday trips, would also offer improvements to visual amenity in communities where centres become more about a sense of place rather than a connection of roads for the purpose of movement. Improved routes and crossing facilities for walking, wheeling and cycling would also offer better access to existing local green space. Improved public realm allows for people to gather and socialise. Studies have linked the quality of public spaces to people’s perceptions of attractiveness of an area, contributing towards their quality of life.

However, there is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of any new road infrastructure, development of new alternative fuelling stations and any rail line improvements such as the construction of passing loops. This would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of this aspect of the package.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Population and Human Health Safety

Personal security is likely to improve through an increase in people walking, wheeling and cycling in and around key communities along the A96 corridor as there would be an increase in natural surveillance. Furthermore, public realm improvements such as the provision of street lighting can prevent road traffic collisions and increase pedestrian activity through reduction in the fear of crime.

Public transport interchange improvements and DRT/MaaS may also improve personal security and make a safer network for travellers, either directly through improved security facilities at interchanges, such as improved lighting and CCTV coverage or indirectly through better passenger assistance or through minimising wait times. These interventions could therefore improve the attractiveness of public transport stops and stations as they would likely be perceived to be safer.

Safety would also be improved through better passenger assistance or through minimising wait times due to better information about services. Public transport stops and stations can become more attractive and would likely be perceived to be safer.

MaaS and DRT can also help those with mobility issues travel, thereby reducing social isolation by allowing trips to be made more easily. These interventions could also deliver better access to healthcare and wellbeing infrastructure, with additional safety benefits where people are currently travelling longer distances to bus stops using roads with poor pedestrian infrastructure.

The options within this package could result in a modal shift to sustainable transport including rail, walking, wheeling and cycling. The increased opportunities to travel by these modes would be beneficial and create opportunities for communities to access key services such as healthcare. Modelling undertaken using the NaPTAT estimates that an additional 8,100 of the population in the study area would be able to access an emergency department hospital in a journey time of approximately 30 minutes by public transport. This represents around a 2 percentage point increase in accessibility levels from approximately 49% in the ‘without package’ assessment to approximately 51% in the ‘with package’ assessment. This journey time accessibility improvement would also benefit groups who may be more reliant on public transport for accessing health services, such as those aged 65 and over, where an additional 2,100 people would be able to access healthcare in under 30 minutes by public transport, as well as 1,900 people across all age groups with long-term health problems or disability, whose day-to-day activities are limited. The improvements would be found in Aberdeen City (5,900 people), as a result of interchange interventions which would improve the connection between services, and in Moray (2,300 people), with a reduction in journey times observed in settlements such as Lossiemouth. It is anticipated that the improved connection between public transport services in Aberdeen would benefit journeys travelling to the city which require an onward service to reach a destination, such as employment centres which are located across various parts of the city.

Other journey time improvements to the nearest emergency department hospital would be observed in rural settlements along the A96 corridor, with the highest journey time reduction shown in Huntly where an additional 2,700 people would be able to access their nearest site within 80 minutes. This accessibility benefit would be observed for groups who may be more reliant on public transport for accessing such health services, including 900 people aged 65 and over, and 700 people across all age groups with long-term health problems or disability, whose day-to-day activities are limited. This improvement would be reflected in the journey time reduction to the two cities, Inverness and Aberdeen, as well as Elgin in the study area. Many settlements with access to railway stations show journey time improvements for journeys to Elgin, Inverness and particularly to Aberdeen.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Positive

Material Assets

Sustainable

Transport

Potential for minor positive effects on the sustainable use of the transport network by promoting or improving the sustainable use of the transport network through planning for future travel arrangements where journeys are made by a number of different modes (including active travel modes).

Potential opportunity for road schemes to improve surface conditions, and, alongside advancement in the types of materials used, reduce overall maintenance needs in the longer-term, with associated positive effects.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Positive

Material Assets

Natural Resources

Depending on the source and type of materials/natural resources used to construct some of the new infrastructure associated with several of the proposed interventions, there is potential for moderate negative effects on material assets in terms of natural resources usage. Raw materials such as aggregate, non-metallic minerals, cement and sand are likely to be required for the construction of new transport infrastructure ⁱⁱ .

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Water Quality and Flood Risk

The bypasses and other construction works associated with this package have the potential for significant negative effects on the water environment. There are large areas of floodplain around Elgin associated with the River Lossie, some of which have flood mitigation. There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. The construction of the bypasses also has the potential to have a negative impact on water quality of these water courses and consideration would be needed as to the alignment of the bypasses in terms of water crossings and bridge design.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including improving public transport interchanges, linespeed improvements and increasing passenger and freight capacity has the potential to have negative effects in terms of water, drainage and flooding during the construction phase.

There are areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent. These areas are potential constraints to the proposed physical works associated with implementing this package.

The construction of this package also has the potential to have an adverse impact on water quality of these water courses and consideration would be needed in terms of water crossings and bridge design. Any impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location.

The rail improvements at Keith have the potential to result in some negative effects on flooding due to the areas of flood risk around Keith associated with the River Isla to the north of the town and some flood risk to the west and south-west to a lesser extent.

Construction works have the potential to lead to moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations. For the continuous active travel route, this may need to follow the current A96 route.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have adverse environmental effects on water drainage and flooding which could be significant particularly if environmental designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Biodiversity

The bypasses have the potential to have moderate negative effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape and forestry. These effects could be moderate negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Elgin:

one Ramsar site

five SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

Keith:

two SSSIs

parcels of ancient woodland

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects however, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. The construction of the DRT and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is dependent on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

This has the potential to affect the following designations:

two Ramsar Sites

12 SSSIs

three SACs

four SPAs

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on biodiversity and habitats, landscape, historic environment, water drainage and flooding, geology and soils, agriculture and forestry, all of which could be significant particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Moderate Negative

Soils

Soils are important for biodiversity and carbon sequestration. They also provide important ecosystem services such as crop production, pollutant filtration and protection of archaeological resources.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint.

The bypasses also have the potential to have negative effects on soils within and around the construction footprint, including high grade agricultural land, Geological Conservation Review sites, carbon rich soils and peat.

Potential construction impacts include pollution, erosion, removal, degradation, compaction and sealing.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Cultural Heritage

The bypasses and other construction works associated with this package have the potential to have negative effects on cultural heritage. These effects could be minor negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The physical works associated with implementing the package, including improving public transport interchanges, linespeed improvements and increasing passenger and freight capacity has the potential to have negative effects during the construction phase. The impacts would be of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly are likely to result in some negative effects on cultural heritage. However, these effects may be limited, considering there are no cultural heritage designations in the areas of proposed interventions.

The construction works have the potential to have moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations.

Interventions along the current A96 route have the potential to affect the following designations:

three Inventory of Historic Battlefields

seven Gardens and Designed Landscapes

seven Scheduled Monuments

In relation to the bypasses, the following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Elgin:

four Scheduled Monuments

two Conservation Areas

Keith:

one Scheduled Monument

two Conservation Areas

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress. These have the potential to have negative environmental effects on historic environment, all of which could be significant particularly if the above designations are affected.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Landscape

The bypasses and improvements to public transport interchanges have the potential to have negative effects on landscape. These effects could be minor negative (depending on alignment), given the scale of development associated with these bypasses.

The physical works associated with the other interventions within this package are likely to have negative environmental effects of varying degrees depending on scale, design and location. Some of these impacts may be short-term during the construction phase only and could be mitigated. The rail improvements at Keith and Huntly have the potential to result in some negative effects however, these effects may be limited, considering there are no environmental designations in the areas of proposed interventions. There may be some localised landscape and biodiversity effects through the loss of vegetation, however mitigation could be incorporated, such as appropriate landscaping and tree planting to reduce these effects. The DRT and electric corridor interventions also have the potential for negative effects but this is dependent on the extent of physical works and location. The environmental effects are likely to be low.

In relation to the bypasses, the following designations are noted in and around each settlement:

Elgin:

Quarrelwood LLA

Spynie LLA

The construction works as part of the other interventions in this package also have the potential to have moderate environmental effects given the scale of these works are likely to be more significant and may affect environmental designations.

The following designated sites are noted in the overall A96 corridor study area:

30 distinct Landscape Character Types (LCTs) between Inverness and Aberdeen

13 Local Landscape Areas (LLAs)

In addition, according to the National Forest Inventory, wooded areas occur along the entire study area, including concentrated areas on the outskirts of the towns of Forres and Keith. In the southern part of the study area near Inverurie, there is less forestation than in the north. Conifers predominate, but there are also areas of fallen trees, broadleaved trees and young trees. According to the Ancient Woodland Inventory, long-established areas (of plantation origin) are found mainly from Inverness to Huntly.

There are also various Tree Preservation Orders scattered through the study area, including several close to the existing A96 for example at Nairn, Keith and Thainstone.

Whilst the study area does not contain any nationally recognised scenic viewpoints, or nationally designated landscapes, there are visual sensitivities to some types of development within or visible from the Local Landscape Areas. There are also numerous towns, villages and rural properties, along with numerous paths, recreational trails and areas used for outdoor recreation where there is the potential for visual effects to occur.

The scale of the effects of these proposals would be dependent on the design and location of the works and further environmental assessment would be undertaken as the designs progress.

The statutory environmental bodies in Scotland would be consulted about the need and scope of future environmental assessment.

With Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative

Without Policy Scenario Rating

Minor Negative