Preliminary Appraisal Summary Table - Elgin Bypass

Preliminary Appraisal Summary

Option Description

Elgin Bypass

This option focuses on improving the safety, resilience, and reliability of the A96 Trunk Road within the vicinity of Elgin through the provision of a bypass of the town. Elgin is shown within the context of the wider A96 Trunk Road in Figure 1.1. Note that due to this being at an early stage of the process, the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) appraisal does not define the location, route or standard of the bypass.

The existing A96 Trunk Road passes through Elgin from the town’s western boundary at the Morriston Road priority junction, to the Reiket Lane Roundabout at the town’s eastern boundary. Within the boundaries of Elgin, A96 traffic is required to negotiate nine at-grade roundabouts, numerous priority junctions and accesses (serving commercial units, industrial units and residential properties), as well as five signalised pedestrian crossings, with potentially three more pedestrian crossings to be added in the near future.

The existing A96 Trunk Road route through Elgin is single carriageway, generally 7.3m wide, with footways along the majority of the route; however, these can be relatively narrow in places, meaning people cannot pass easily. The speed limit is 30mph for the majority of the urban section within Elgin, reducing from 40mph on the approaches to the town. Outside of the town’s boundary, the road is subject to the national speed limit.

This option would help to improve the reliability and resilience of the A96 Trunk Road through reducing the impacts of accidents, as well as supporting access to regionally significant tourism sites and employment opportunities, particularly in the food and drink sector. This option also has the potential to increase the attractiveness of active travel within the town as a result of the removal of through traffic and enable increased opportunities to enhance placemaking throughout Elgin; however, for the purposes of the Preliminary Appraisal these do not form part of this specific option.

Relevance

Relevant to all road users in the corridor

The A96 Trunk Road plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland. The provision of a bypass of Elgin is likely to improve connectivity between selected origins and destinations within the region by bypassing the existing A96 within the town, avoiding interaction with local traffic and junctions. This would also allow freight to move more effectively, therefore a bypass within the vicinity of Elgin could help reduce costs to business including the food and drink and tourism sectors and contribute to economic growth. This option supports Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scottish Government, Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation, 2022 ) , which sets out the Scottish Government’s vision to creating a more successful country through a wellbeing economy, noting the requirement to thrive across the economic, social and environmental dimensions.

This option has the potential to support the reliability and resilience of the network for communities and businesses by reducing the impact of incidents on the network. A high quality, well maintained and efficient trunk road network can also support other Scottish Government programmes for active travel, development of connected and autonomous vehicle infrastructure and bus priority investment, and thereby contribute to the low carbon economy.

Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 sets out the vision for Scotland to have the best road safety performance in the world by 2030 and the long-term goal of Vision Zero where there are zero fatalities and serious injuries on Scotland’s roads by 2050 with ambitious interim targets for the number of people killed or seriously injured to be halved by 2030 ( Transport Scotland, Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030, 2021, ) . The framework is aligned with the Second National Transport Strategy (NTS2) and embeds the Safe System approach to road safety delivery, which consists of five key pillars focusing efforts not only on road traffic casualty reduction (vulnerability of the casualties) but also on road traffic danger reduction (sources of the danger).

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 Trunk Road is lower than the national average ( Department for Transport, STATS19 Road Safety Data, 2019 ) , and that is also the case within Elgin, although four serious and 12 slight Personal Injury Accidents (PIA) were recorded within the town between 2015 and 2019. This can result in real and perceived safety issues affecting road users and, for example, can act as a barrier to active travel within Elgin. The provision of an Elgin bypass would reduce the volume of traffic passing through Elgin, which should in turn reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents on the existing A96 through Elgin. As such, this option would contribute to Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 supporting Vision Zero.

Estimated Cost

£101m - £250m Capital

Determining the estimated cost of this option is dependent on a number of factors including the scale and complexity of the bypass and specific local constraints that would require further examination and assessment at the stages of design development, a level of detail beyond that which is undertaken as part of a STAG appraisal.

As a result, the STAG appraisal does not define the location or route of the bypass, although it has been assumed that the approximate length will range from 10km to 20km. The category of road for the bypass and the number and type of junctions have also not been defined at this stage.

Considering the assumed range for the approximate length of the bypass, the total estimated cost is expected to fall within the range of £101m - £250m.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the operation and maintenance of the bypass, which would have ongoing costs associated with it.

Position in Sustainable Hierarchies

Sustainable Investment Hierarchy / Sustainable Travel Hierarchy

Within the Sustainable Investment Hierarchy, this option sits within ‘targeted infrastructure improvements’. This option would also sit within the ‘private car’ tier of the Sustainable Travel Hierarchy.

This option would also contribute to eight of the 12 NTS2 outcomes, as follows:

• Provide fair access to services we need
• Help deliver our net zero target
• Adapt to the effects of climate change
• Get people and goods to where they need to get to
• Be reliable, efficient, and high quality
• Use beneficial innovation
• Be safe and secure for all
• Help make our communities great places to live.

Summary Rationale

Summary of Appraisal

This option makes a generally positive contribution to most of the A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives (TPOs), STAG criteria, and Statutory Impact Assessment (SIA) criteria. However, it is expected that there would be negative impacts from this option in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, specifically considering the STAG Environment criterion. In the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario specifically, the option is expected to perform negatively against TPO1, relating to contributing to Scottish Government’s net zero targets, and the STAG Climate Change criterion as well.

This option also offers the opportunity to enhance community cohesion and placemaking by addressing the severance issues associated with a busy trunk road bisecting a community. In turn, this could increase the attractiveness of shorter everyday trips undertaken by active modes, positively contributing to TPO3 for enhancing communities as places to support health, wellbeing and the environment, and the STAG criteria for Health, Safety and Wellbeing and Equality and Accessibility. The Elgin bypass would provide additional road space whilst reducing the amount of traffic and delays in the town itself that is also anticipated to positively impact on the TPOs in relation to contributing to sustainable inclusive growth (TPO4) and delivering a transport system that is safe, reliable and resilient (TPO5), as well as the STAG Economy criterion.

Although the Elgin bypass would remove some noise and air pollution from the town, the physical impact of construction could negatively impact the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity, with an overall moderate negative impact expected for the STAG Environment criterion in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios. In the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario specifically where traffic demand is likely to be higher with greater vehicle kilometres travelled, the option would have a minor negative impact against TPO1 regarding net zero targets, and the STAG Climate Change criterion.

Delivery of the bypass is considered feasible at this stage; however, a detailed assessment would require to be undertaken to fully establish the details of the bypass including the optimal corridor and junction strategy. Although a bypass of Elgin is considered to be affordable at this stage, capital costs are also highly dependent on the potential length and route a bypass may take. A reasonable level of support for the option from the public is anticipated due to the potential safety improvements and reliability benefits for through traffic.

Although the bypass as a standalone intervention does not perform particularly well against two of the TPOs and the STAG Environment and Climate Change criteria, it would act as a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within Elgin ; the removal of traffic from the A96 within the town would present an opportunity for delivering sustainable travel measures and/or placemaking through the reallocation of roadspace.

It is recommended that this option is taken forward to the Detailed Appraisal stage.

Details behind this summary are discussed in Section 3.

Context

Problems and Opportunities

This option could help to address the following problem and opportunity themes. Further detail on the identified problems and opportunities is provided in the published A96 Corridor Review Case for Change ( Jacobs AECOM, A96 Corridor Review Case for Change, 2022, ) .

Relevant Problem and Opportunity Themes Identified in the A96 Corridor Review Case for Change

Safety and Resilience : From the analysis of accident data, the rural sections of the A96 Trunk Road have overall PIA rates lower than or similar to the national average based on all trunk A-roads of the equivalent type. Whilst the accident rate on the A96 within Elgin is below the national average, there are locations where accidents occur within the town.

The A96 Trunk Road is affected by closures and delays due to accidents, maintenance and weather events. Recommended diversion routes can be lengthy throughout the corridor, up to approximately 65km depending on where the closure occurs. The economic impact of closures can be significant for HGVs and the movement of goods.

Socio-Economic and Location of Services: Employment and other key services tend to be found in the three most populous and key economic locations within the study area: Aberdeen, Inverness and Elgin. Considering the travel distances between these three key economic centres and the other settlements in the transport appraisal study area, travelling by sustainable modes is relatively unattractive.

The key economic centres contain essential facilities such as major hospitals as well as a much greater density of education facilities. In addition, almost half of the total jobs in the transport appraisal study area are found within these three locations. Outside of these three areas, people making a trip to a workplace are more likely to travel over 10km , therefore limiting the potential for active travel.

Health and Environment : Transport is a major contributor to CO ₂ emissions along the A96 corridor, particularly in the Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas. Transport contributes over 35% of the total emissions in both Aberdeenshire and Highland Council areas and between 25% and 30% in Aberdeen City and Moray. This is potentially an outcome of the high dependence on cars for travel, long travel distances and the levels of road-based freight movements.

The route of the A96 travels through the centre of towns along the corridor such as Elgin and Keith, which puts a relatively large proportion of the population in close proximity to potential noise pollution and pollutants from transport emissions that affect local air quality.

Sustainable Economic Growth: There is an opportunity to support and enhance sustainable economic growth across the transport appraisal study area. The key industries in the region, including food and drink production and agriculture, forestry and fishing have a high proportion of goods movement, as evidenced through the relatively high proportion of HGVs on the A96. A shift to alternative sustainable transport modes could improve journey time reliability, resulting in economic and environmental benefits, with trials being undertaken in recent years to increase the proportion of rail freight movements.

The transport appraisal study area has shown growth in tourism spend in recent years with the rise of whisky tourism and the Speyside Whisky Trail being a major component of the economy in this sector. There are opportunities to change the way in which visitors travel to and from the region, and around it. Walking and cycling tourism is one such opportunity and has the potential to create further economic growth by attracting new visitors to the region.

Improving Safety: There is the opportunity to reduce the number and severity of accidents on the A96 Trunk Road on those sections where the PIA and/or Killed or Seriously Injured accident rates are high when compared to the national average for equivalent urban or rural trunk A-roads. Improving safety for road users would contribute to meeting the targets set out in Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 to achieve the 50% reduction in people killed or seriously injured (60% reduction for children). Reducing the level of car-based kilometres travelled would also contribute to a reduction in accident numbers.

Interdependencies

This option has potential overlap with other A96 Corridor Review options and would also complement other areas of Scottish Government activity.

Other A96 Corridor Review Options

• Targeted Road Safety Improvements
• Active Communities
• Active Connections
• Bus Priority Measures and Park and Ride
• Development of A96 Electric Corridor.

Other areas of Scottish Government activity

• Bus Partnership Fund ( Transport Scotland, Bus Partnership Fund, )
• Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 ( UK Government, Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019, 2019 )
• Climate Change Plan 2018-32 Update ( Transport Scotland, Securing a green recovery on a path to net zero: climate change plan 2018–2032 - update, 2020 )
• Infrastructure Investment Plan 2021/22 – 2025/26 (IIP) ( Transport Scotland, Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-26, 2021, )
• National Transport Strategy 2 (NTS2) ( Transport Scotland, National Transport Strategy: Protecting Our Climate and Improving Our Lives, 2020, )
• National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4) ( Scottish Government, National Planning Framework 4, 2023, )
• The Place Principle ( Place Principle: Introduction, Scottish Government, 2019, )
• Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation ( Scottish Government, Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation, 2022, )
• Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030 ( Transport Scotland, Scotland’s Road Safety Framework to 2030, 2021, )
• Strategic Road Safety Plan (2016) ( Transport Scotland, Strategic Road Safety Plan, 2016, )
• Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2) ( Transport Scotland, Strategic Transport Projects Review 2 (STPR2), 2022, ) .

Appraisal

Appraisal Overview

This section provides an assessment of the option against:

• A96 Corridor Review Transport Planning Objectives
• STAG criteria
• Deliverability criteria
• Statutory Impact Assessment criteria.

The seven-point assessment scale has been used to indicate the impact of the option when considered under the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ Travel Behaviour scenarios (which are described in Appendix A of the Transport Appraisal Report).

Transport Planning Objectives

1. A sustainable strategic transport corridor that contributes to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target.

A review of Automatic Traffic Counter (ATC) data from 2019 indicated that between 16,000 and 22,000 vehicles per day travel on the A96 through Elgin ( Transport Scotland, National Traffic Data System (NTDS), ) , which is likely to be a barrier to active and sustainable modes of travel within the town. Analysis of automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) data collected in 2017 indicates that approximately 20% of traffic travelling on the A96 east or west of Elgin is through traffic (ANPR Origin Destination Survey undertaken on behalf of The Moray Council in June 2017. Observed data was determined to be more robust than alternative data available from the A96 Corridor Road Assignment Model (CRAM).). Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, additional traffic may use sections of the bypass to access developments to the north or south of Elgin, further reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 within Elgin. Removing this traffic through the provision of a bypass is therefore likely to contribute to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target through the reduction of slow moving or stationary traffic, whilst also improving the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel particularly for shorter, everyday journeys. The provision of a bypass would also reduce the number of commercial goods vehicles, including LGVs and HGVs, travelling through the town, by between approximately 30% and 60%xvii.

The option would likely act as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within Elgin, increasing the opportunity to encourage a shift from car-based travel to sustainable modes, particularly for shorter distance journeys. This is likely to be achieved through creating environments that are more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, and by increasing the priority for public transport services, resulting in a positive contribution to this objective under both the ’With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

However, a bypass would provide additional road space and therefore increase capacity for motorised vehicles, potentially inducing travel demand. Analysis of INRIX journey time data for May 2019 indicates that congestion occurs within Elgin, with traffic speeds reducing to approximately 50% of free flow speeds. Congestion within Elgin is likely to be experienced more intensely and for longer periods in the ’Without Policy’ Scenario compared to the ‘With Policy’ Scenario, where congestion could be minimal. The provision of a bypass provides an alternative route to avoid any congestion within the town, which could result in more road-based trips, therefore increasing transport-based emissions. This option therefore has the potential to have a negative impact under the ’Without Policy’ Scenario and neutral impact under the ’With Policy’ Scenario on transport-based emissions.

While a bypass does not necessarily facilitate a modal shift to more sustainable modes, it does help support the provision of a safe, efficient, and reliable trunk road network which is integral to wider Scottish Government programmes relating to active travel and bus priority investment. On balance, the provision of a bypass of Elgin is scored as neutral under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario and minor negative under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario against this objective.

2. An inclusive strategic transport corridor that improves the accessibility of public transport in rural areas for access to healthcare, employment and education.

The frequency and integration of public transport services is a problem along the corridor, and within the vicinity of Elgin, which is highlighted by the reliance on private vehicle use and by higher than average car ownership levels (75%) in the town . This is due to the largely rural nature of the region, where providing public transport can be a challenge due to dispersed population and settlement patterns. While the provision of a bypass benefits local services through the reduction of traffic flows within Elgin, longer distance bus services are unlikely to travel on the bypass as Elgin is a key destination between Aberdeen and Inverness, as the largest town on the corridor, and the main urban centre within Moray.

A bypass of Elgin is unlikely to have a direct impact on service frequency and coverage and is therefore not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

Overall, the options are anticipated to have a neutral impact on this objective in both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

3. A coherent strategic transport corridor that enhances communities as places, supporting health, wellbeing and the environment.

A review of ATC data from 2019 indicated between 16,000 and 22,000 vehicles per day travel on the A96 through Elgin ( Transport Scotland, National Traffic Data System (NTDS), ) , comprising a mix of local and through traffic as well as a mix of vehicle composition. This increases severance in the town, which can create a barrier to active travel and detract from the sense of place. Analysis of ANPR data collected in 2017 indicates that the provision of a bypass of Elgin is anticipated to remove approximately 20% of traffic from the existing A96 at the town . Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, additional traffic may use sections of the bypass to access developments to the north or south of Elgin, further reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 within Elgin. Reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 through Elgin provides the opportunity to enhance the sense of place as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within Elgin.

A bypass is anticipated to remove through traffic from within Elgin, providing the opportunity to deliver interventions within the town to enhance placemaking, reducing demand for unsustainable travel, particularly for shorter everyday trips. By facilitating the transition to sustainable models, a bypass could further reduce traffic volumes within Elgin, enhancing the sense of place and supporting health and wellbeing.

In addition to the potential benefits mentioned above, the removal of through trips by providing a bypass of Elgin would likely reduce the real and perceived severance caused by the strategic road network within the town. The option is scored to have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios as it would enable the inclusion of infrastructure to encourage mode shift, enhancing the community as a place.

4. An integrated strategic transport system that contributes towards sustainable inclusive growth throughout the corridor and beyond.

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market. The provision of a bypass of Elgin is likely to improve connectivity between certain origin and destinations within the region by bypassing the congested existing A96 within the town. However, as Elgin is a key destination for many within the region, with large employers such as Dr Grey’s Hospital, Moray Council, and Walkers Shortbread Factory located within the town, many road users would remain on the existing A96.

Furthermore, Elgin has been recognised as a ‘primary growth area’ in the region, providing a good range of services, and acting as an important transport hub ( Moray Council, Moray Local Development Plan, 2020, ) . The town is a key destination for freight, with a Specialised Goods Vehicle Count (SGVC) conducted in May 2015 confirming that of the 820 freight vehicles observed at Elgin, 39% were only recorded at one site, indicating multiple short movements on the A96 within the area local to Elgin ( Transport Scotland, A96 Dualling: Hardmuir to Fochabers Scheme OBC, 2018, ) .

A bypass of Elgin could support sustainable inclusive growth by improving the connectivity between businesses and the labour market and by improving the efficiency of the movement of goods along the corridor due to the likely associated reliability improvements on the trunk road network. In turn, this would likely support opportunities for employment and for business growth. The removal of through trips from the town would likely alleviate congestion for those travelling to Elgin for employment and for freight. Whilst the majority of the benefits would likely be felt by people who have access to a vehicle, the removal of through trips provides the opportunity to deliver interventions within towns to enhance placemaking, making active and sustainable modes more attractive and therefore reducing demand for unsustainable travel, particularly for shorter everyday trips.

The removal of through trips could also provide opportunities to enhance placemaking within Elgin, enhancing the local economy by providing more attractive surroundings which encourages increased footfall. However, any economic benefits could be negated if reducing through traffic negatively impacts communities as a result of a reduction in passing trade.

Overall, a bypass of Elgin is expected to have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios due to the improved confidence in the trunk road network provided for rural and remote communities and for the opportunity to provide measures to enhance sustainable access to labour markets within Elgin as a key centre of employment within Moray.

5. A reliable and resilient strategic transport system that is safe for users.

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 is lower than the national average , and this is also the case within the Elgin urban area between 2015 and 2019. However, four serious and 12 slight accidents were recorded within Elgin between 2015 and 2019. Analysis of ANPR data collected in 2017 indicates that the provision of an Elgin Bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic passing through Elgin by approximately 20% due to the removal of through trips . Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, additional traffic may use sections of the bypass to access developments to the north or south of Elgin, further reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 within Elgin. This, in turn, could reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents at these locations and on the entire A96 through Elgin. The provision of a bypass would also remove the need for through traffic to pass through the nine at-grade roundabouts and numerous signalised pedestrian crossings within Elgin, reducing conflict and the potential for accidents, whilst also improving the reliability of the strategic transport corridor.

Evaluations of road schemes following the Scottish Trunk Road Infrastructure Project Evaluation (STRIPE) framework provide an illustration of the potential benefits, as illustrated by the 3-year-after-opening project evaluations for the following scheme:

• A68(T) Dalkeith Bypass saw a reduction in the number of accidents within Dalkeith by approximately 30% after opening ( Transport Scotland, Scottish Trunk Road Infrastructure Project Evaluation: 3YA Evaluation Report for A68(T) Dalkeith Bypass, 2017 ) . Additionally, the severity of accidents occurring within the town reduced.

Overall, a bypass of Elgin would have a minor positive impact on this objective under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, with the positive impacts felt by the community within Elgin and the wider communities along the A96 corridor.

STAG Criteria

1. Environment

A bypass of Elgin would be likely to result in minor positive impacts on communities and the safety of the local road network and along the A96 by separating a significant proportion of the through traffic from local traffic. This would deliver health and wellbeing benefits to individuals by providing a safer environment to travel. Elgin is the largest settlement on the A96 outwith Inverness and Aberdeen, in terms of population. A bypass of Elgin would reduce the volume of traffic travelling through the town and therefore assist with placemaking by reducing the real and perceived severance with the A96 currently travelling through the centre of the settlement. The re-distribution of a significant proportion of the through traffic to a bypass could produce opportunities to re-orientate the road network and traffic hierarchy around the centre of Elgin, re-connecting communities that may currently feel separated by the road. As a result of the likely reduction in through traffic, a bypass would be anticipated to improve air quality and reduce noise and vibration within Elgin itself, if overall traffic volumes through the settlement were reduced; however, the extent would depend on the proportion of traffic that transfers onto the bypass.

A bypass may also increase the overall use of private vehicles through reducing congestion and making car travel more attractive. There may be a slight deterioration in air quality as a result of any traffic increase; however, the bypass has the potential to improve air quality along the existing A96 within Elgin through reducing traffic volumes, congestion and stationary vehicles within the town.

However, in terms of natural resources, significant quantities of materials and construction-related trips would be required during the construction of a bypass. Depending on the material chosen and its source, there is the potential for a negative impact.

A bypass has the potential for adverse environmental impacts, with some of these being potentially significant for example on the water environment, biodiversity, agriculture and soils, cultural heritage, landscape and visual amenity. There are regionally and nationally important natural and historical designations to the west and north of Elgin, including Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Geological Conservation Review Sites ( Jacobs AECOM, A96 Corridor Review Case for Change, 2022, ) , and there are large areas of woodland to the south, west and north, many of which are on the Inventory of Ancient Woodland. There are large areas of flood risk all around the settlement which would be a constraint on the route of a bypass. The scale of the impacts would be dependent on further design development and the alignment of the bypass being determined and therefore at this stage, the extent of impacts is uncertain. Such impacts could either be direct (such as demolition/land loss/habitat loss) or indirect (such as impacts on setting or views).

In terms of land use, the Moray Local Development Plan (2020)xix outlines settlement expansion, particularly on the northern and southern fringes of Elgin. This includes residential, education, employment, and open space land use designations. The alignment of a bypass would need to take this into consideration, as the route could constrain or have a negative impact on future development. Some of these allocations already have planning permission and have started to be constructed.

Further environmental assessment would be undertaken if a bypass is progressed through the design and development process in order to assess the location and scale of specific environmental impacts as well as to identify appropriate mitigation where required. Design and construction environmental management plans would also be developed to consider how to protect and enhance landscape, drainage, amenity, biodiversity, and cultural heritage. Appropriate environmental mitigation and enhancement measures would also be embedded as the design and development process progresses.

Overall, at this preliminary stage in the appraisal process, the potential impacts of the Elgin bypass are considered moderate negative for this criterion under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios, although this would be subject to the location and design of the bypass. If the environmental constraints are avoided or appropriately mitigated, then adverse environmental impacts could be reduced.

2. Climate Change

The A96 Trunk Road network could be considered vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly in areas at high risk of flooding or in locations where current or future ground stability issues are known or anticipated. Impacts also could include material deterioration due to extreme weather leading to deterioration of surface such as softening, deformation and cracking , surface water flooding and damage to surfaces from periods of heavy rainfall. A bypass is likely to suffer the same vulnerabilities; however, new infrastructure would be designed in such a way as to minimise the potential effects of climate change, to reduce the vulnerability at that location. Furthermore, a bypass should enhance the resilience of the A96, adapting against the effects of climate change.

In the short term, greenhouse gas emissions would occur due to construction activities undertaken to deliver a bypass, including indirect emissions from the manufacture and transportation of materials and emissions from the fuel combusted by construction plant and vehicles.

The provision of an Elgin Bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic passing through Elgin by approximately 20% due to the removal of through trips . Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, additional traffic may use sections of the bypass to access developments to the north or south of Elgin, further reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 within Elgin. Removing this traffic from the town through the provision of a bypass could potentially reduce stationary traffic whilst also improving the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel, particularly for shorter, everyday journeys, through reducing the traffic flow on the existing A96. Therefore, removing this traffic through the provision of a bypass is likely to contribute to the Scottish Government’s net zero emissions target through the reduction of stationary traffic. It would also improve the attractiveness of sustainable modes of travel, particularly for shorter, everyday journeys through reducing the traffic flow on the existing A96, including a reduction in the number of HGVs travelling through the town.

A bypass would provide additional road space, which is likely to increase capacity for motorised vehicles and incentivise a greater level of travel. This would lead to induced travel demand, particularly under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario, where congestion within Elgin is likely to be experienced more intensely and for longer periods compared to the ‘With Policy’ Scenario, where congestion could be minimal. Expected impacts under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario, such as a reduction in car km travelled, could reduce the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the bypass users. Therefore, the provision of additional road space has the potential to have a minor negative impact under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario, and neutral impact under the ’With Policy’ Scenario on transport-based emissions. The extent of change in greenhouse gas emissions is also dependent on the migration to zero-emission fuels over time.

The provision of a bypass would act as a key enabler to maximise sustainable transport and placemaking within Elgin, enhancing the opportunity to encourage a shift from car-based travel to sustainable modes, particularly for shorter everyday journeys. This is likely to be achieved through creating environments more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, or by improving the reliability and attractiveness of public transport services, therefore positively contributing to this objective under both the ’With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios.

The provision of a bypass could enhance resilience of the A96 to the effects of climate change. However, given the potential for greenhouse gas emissions to rise during construction and the bypass to induce travel demand, the option is expected to have a neutral impact on the Climate Change criterion under the ‘With Policy’ Scenario, and a minor negative impact under the ‘Without Policy’ Scenario.

3. Health, Safety and Wellbeing

Analysis of ANPR data collected in 2017 indicates that approximately 20% of traffic travelling on the A96 east or west of Elgin is through traffic . Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, additional traffic may use sections of the bypass to access developments to the north or south of Elgin, further reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 within Elgin. Removing this traffic from the town through the provision of a bypass would likely reduce some of the key barriers to active modes within Elgin, including real and perceived severance caused by trunk road traffic. This could result in an increase in active travel, providing benefits to health and wellbeing in the town. Furthermore, the bypass would encourage a shift from car-based travel to sustainable modes, particularly for shorter everyday journeys within Elgin. This would be achieved by creating environments more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, providing additional benefits to health and wellbeing.

The removal of through traffic from Elgin through the provision of a bypass is anticipated to reduce congestion which should provide benefits for accessing local health and wellbeing services, such as Dr Gray’s Hospital, whether it be by car, public transport or by active modes.

Generally, the accident rate on the A96 is lower than the national average , and this is also the case within the Elgin urban area between 2015 and 2019; however, four serious and 12 slight accidents were recorded in Elgin within this period. As explained above, the provision of an Elgin bypass would likely reduce the volume of traffic passing through Elgin. Further, depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, additional traffic may use sections of the bypass to access developments to the north or south of Elgin, further reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 within Elgin. This could, in turn, reduce the number and severity of road traffic accidents at these locations and on the entire A96 through Elgin, and result in safety improvements.

There is potential for negative environmental effects on visual amenity during construction and operation of the bypass; however, this would need to be assessed in more detail during the development of the option.

It is anticipated that this option would have no impact on the personal security of travellers and their property.

Overall, a bypass is anticipated to have minor positive impacts under the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios on this criterion as it is anticipated to provide additional opportunities for active travel within Elgin, which could have positive health impacts, as well as reducing the number of accidents within the town.

4. Economy

The A96 plays an important strategic role in the regional economy of the north-east of Scotland, connecting people to employment and education opportunities as well as providing businesses with access to the labour market.

This option would result in wider economic impacts at a national, regional and local level for both transport users and non-users, with the potential to result in positive changes to economic welfare. The food and drink industry is a key sector nationally, regionally and locally, with Moray being home to world-renowned brands such as Walkers and Baxters, as well as forming part of the protected region for distilling Speyside whisky. With approximately 44% of all malt whisky distilleries in Scotland being located within Moray ( Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2019-2022 Strategy ) , the A96 Trunk Road is integral to the sector ( Nestrans, Freight Gateway Interconnectivity, 2018, ) for transporting goods. Tourism is also a key industry within the Inverness to Aberdeen corridor , with significant natural and industrial tourism assets, including the Cairngorms National Park and Royal Deeside. Within Elgin itself, there are a number of attraction sites in close proximity, including distilleries and Elgin Cathedral.

The provision of a bypass of Elgin is likely to reduce the conflict between local and longer distance traffic, improving the efficiency of the movement of goods along the corridor due to the likely associated reliability improvements on the trunk road network, thereby supporting opportunities for employment and for business growth. The removal of through trips could also provide opportunities to enhance placemaking within Elgin, enhancing the local economy by providing more attractive surroundings and encouraging increased footfall. This could be negated, however, if reducing through traffic negatively impacts communities as a result of a reduction in passing trade.

An economic assessment to calculate the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) of this option has not been undertaken at this stage of appraisal as the route and standard of the bypass are currently unknown. However, this option is anticipated to result in benefits to both the private and business users in terms of travel times and vehicle operating costs, particularly for longer distance traffic bypassing the town. Benefits are anticipated to arise as vehicles using the bypass are likely to travel at a more efficient speed, without the need to interact with local junctions. Journey time benefits are also anticipated as local congestion is bypassed and through higher travel speeds associated with the route operating at a higher speed limit.

Overall, a bypass of Elgin is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios on the Economy criterion due to the improved journey time reliability for suppliers, businesses, visitors, and customers and the opportunity to provide enhanced placemaking within Elgin, increasing footfall and providing benefits to the local economy.

5. Equality and Accessibility

Analysis of ANPR data collected in 2017 indicates that approximately 20% of traffic travelling on the A96 east or west of Elgin is through traffic . Depending on the route of the bypass and the location of any intermediate junctions, additional traffic may use sections of the bypass to access developments to the north or south of Elgin, further reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 within Elgin. Whilst this option would not directly impact active travel, the removal of through traffic through the provision of a bypass would likely improve local accessibility and remove some of the key barriers to active and sustainable mode use within Elgin. This option would also reduce severance within Elgin caused by trunk road traffic, whilst also providing the opportunity to enhance placemaking and improve active travel network connections.

Reducing through traffic within Elgin is also likely to improve the perception of road safety and ultimately encourage sustainable modes of travel through creating environments more attractive for walking, wheeling, and cycling, and/or improving the reliability and attractiveness of public transport services for local trips. This would likely provide some positive effects for protected characteristic groups, including children, young people, women, and older people, who are more likely to walk, wheel or cycle, and are more vulnerable to fear of road danger.

This option is not expected to have a significant impact on the public transport network within Elgin. A bypass of Elgin is not anticipated to have a direct impact on service frequency and coverage, nor have an impact on fares. Therefore, this option is not anticipated to have a notable impact on issues relating to the affordability and accessibility of public transport services, which are linked to wider issues related to the provision, frequency, and integration of public transport in the area.

The potential positive impacts resulting from this option are expected to be most acutely felt by residents within Elgin, while the population along the wider A96 corridor would experience negligible impacts against this criterion.

Reference should also be made to the SIAs in Section 3.5.

Overall, the bypass of Elgin is considered to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios on the Equality and Accessibility criterion as it could encourage more people to travel actively following the removal of through traffic from Elgin. This would reduce real and perceived safety, particularly for protected characteristic groups who are more vulnerable to fear of road danger.

Deliverability

1. Feasibility

As the bypass is likely to form part of the trunk road network, Transport Scotland would likely be the scheme promoter. Transport Scotland has significant experience of delivering major roads projects and bypasses within Scotland. Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion of construction and is readily capable of arranging the operation and maintenance of the A96 Elgin bypass as part of the wider trunk road network.

The scheme would need to be progressed through an options identification and selection process and development of the preliminary design, including the associated environmental assessments. Any option would also be required to pass through the statutory process, which would require public consultations and could result in the need for a public local inquiry.

Some of the key engineering constraints to the north of Elgin are existing roads including the A941 and B9012, the River Lossie and steep topography from the A96 heading north. The A941 and the River Lossie would also be constraints for a bypass to the south, as would the B9010 and the Aberdeen to Inverness railway line. Any bypass route would have to consider geotechnical constraints around Elgin as well, with infilled quarries and areas of poor ground conditions. There are also various environmental and planning/land use constraints which have been outlined in previous sections.

Detailed development work, including community and stakeholder engagement, would be required to identify the most appropriate preferred route for a bypass.

Despite the constraints and challenges outlined above, the work undertaken to date indicates that a bypass is considered feasible.

2. Affordability

The total estimated cost of providing a bypass of Elgin could range between £101m - £250m, as outlined in Section 1.3. Construction costs can vary significantly based on the potential length, design and preferred route of the bypass. Costs would also be dependent on a number of other factors, such as the complexity of construction, the requirement for earthworks and structures, localised ground conditions, the purchase of land and various other engineering and environmental constraints.

In addition to construction costs, Transport Scotland would also likely be the asset owner on completion and is therefore anticipated to take on the ongoing costs associated with operation and maintenance of the bypass. It is not anticipated that these costs would be significant in the context of the wider trunk road network which Transport Scotland operates and maintains across Scotland.

The decision to fund capital infrastructure projects ultimately rests with Transport Scotland and the Scottish Government.

3. Public Acceptability

Wider public support is anticipated within the north-east of Scotland for this option, with work undertaken to look at the dualling of the A96 including the A96 Dualling Hardmuir to Fochabers scheme ( Transport Scotland, A96 Dualling Hardmuir to Fochabers scheme - DMRB Stage 2 Scheme Assessment Report, 2018, ) , being in the public domain. Support is also anticipated from the community in Elgin and stakeholders in the wider business community for improvements to the safety and journey time reliability of the trunk road and local road network.

There are likely to be some members of the public who do not support the construction of a bypass. This could include landowners, communities, businesses, and other stakeholders who have concerns over the impact of construction/operation of the bypass or the resulting potential impacts to the environment.

Depending on the response to the bypass, there is likely to be the need for a Public Local Inquiry.

Public consultation undertaken as part of this review indicated general support for bypasses, with 30% of respondents considering the provision of bypasses as one of their top priorities, and 7% suggesting that bypasses could help to address safety concerns. Furthermore, Elgin was mentioned as a potential location for a bypass. Only 2% of respondents opposed bypasses along the A96.

Statutory Impact Assessment Criteria

1. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

An SEA has been prepared and has helped inform the Environment criterion of the STAG appraisal. There is also considerable overlap between the SEA and the Climate Change criterion. The SEA utilises a set of SEA objectives that covers a wide range of environmental topics including Climatic Factors, Air Quality, Noise, Population and Human Health, Material Assets, Water Environment, Biodiversity, Geology and Soils, Cultural Heritage, Landscape and Visual Amenity. The full SEA, including scoring and narrative for each of the Preliminary Appraisal interventions and Detailed Appraisal packages is presented in the SEA Draft Environmental Report ( Jacobs AECOM, Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Draft Environmental Report - A96 Corridor Review, 2024, ) .

2. Equalities Impact Assessment (EqIA)

This option could result in reduced traffic through Elgin, creating a range of benefits for groups with protected characteristics. A decrease in traffic could result in improved local air quality within the town which would be a particular benefit to those groups who are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic related emissions such as older people, disabled people, children and pregnant women.

Elgin exhibits a very high use of active modes for travelling to work, at 21% of all trips ( NRS, 2011 Census (Scotland), 2011, ) . A bypass provides the opportunity to build on this by decreasing traffic through Elgin, addressing local severance issues, improving the active travel environment and reducing road safety concerns for those groups who are less likely to travel by car. It could also improve the reliability and attractiveness of public transport services for local trips. This would likely provide some positive effects for protected characteristic groups who are more likely to walk, wheel, cycle or use public transport and are more vulnerable to fear of road danger, including children, young people, women, and older people. At a regional level, connectivity benefits to employment, education, services and leisure are likely to be experienced by the overall population.

There could also be benefits for certain groups who rely on private vehicle use to access key services due to mobility reasons such as disabled people and older people or those who make complex journeys involving ‘trip chaining’ such as women and carers. For example, these groups could experience an improvement in journey times and reliability of journey times both locally and when travelling to key services such as employment, education, healthcare, shopping in Elgin and the surrounding area.

The construction of a new bypass may result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for local communities. The construction of the scheme may impact groups who are more vulnerable to noise, vibration, and air quality impacts such as children, older people, disabled people, and pregnant women. Furthermore, during operation, the new bypass could create potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts for communities along the route . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the route alignment of the bypass and the types of communities affected.

Overall, a bypass of Elgin is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for those protected characteristic groups living along the A96 through Elgin and for those who are dependent on private vehicle use. However, negative impacts could be experienced by those living along a new bypass route and more detailed assessment is required to understand the extent of the impact and the appropriate mitigation to reduce negative effects and enhance benefits for protected characteristic groups.

3. Children’s Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment (CRWIA)

A decrease in traffic through Elgin could result in improved local air quality and reduced traffic noise which would be a particular benefit to children, as they are more vulnerable to the adverse health effects of traffic-related emissions and noise. Reduced traffic levels could also help to address local severance issues, improve the active travel environment, reduce road safety concerns, and improve access to education for children and young people.

However, the construction of a new bypass could potentially result in negative impacts during both construction and operation stages for children living in local communities along the bypass route. This includes noise, vibration and air quality impacts during construction and potential severance, noise, air quality and traffic impacts during operation . However, the level of direct impact would be dependent on the location of the bypass and proximity to children and young people living or attending schools along the route.

Overall, a bypass of Elgin is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for children living along the A96 through Elgin. However, potential negative impacts could be experienced under both scenarios for children living and attending school along the new bypass route but the wider benefits to communities are anticipated to outweigh the negative impacts. More detailed assessment is required to understand the extent of these impacts and to ensure effective mitigation.

4. Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment (FSDA)

This option would result in reduced traffic through Elgin, creating benefits for socio-economically disadvantaged groups. Reducing the volume of traffic using the A96 through Elgin would be a key enabler for sustainable transport and placemaking within the town. These improvements would benefit those who are unable to afford a car. There is also the potential for a reduction in inequalities of health in disadvantaged and deprived communities through improved air quality.

There is generally a heavier reliance on the use of the private car along the A96 corridor compared with the rest of the country. This is primarily due to the rural nature of the region, where there is greater dependency on the private car to access employment, education, healthcare and for social purposes. In absence of viable alternatives to travel, those on low incomes may be ‘forced’ into car ownership despite financial constraints. However, there could be benefits through an improvement in journey times and reliability of journey times for these drivers, as well as a more attractive environment for active travel where possible.

With four serious and 12 slight accidents recorded within Elgin between 2015 and 2019 , there are opportunities for safety improvements to benefit socio-economically disadvantaged groups as evidence ( UK Government Office for Science, Inequalities in Mobility and Access in the UK Transport System, 2019, ) shows that people from deprived areas are more likely to be injured or killed as road users.

However, the extent to which positive effects would be realised depends on the location of a bypass and the level of reduction of through traffic within disadvantaged and deprived communities .

Overall, a bypass of Elgin is expected to have a minor positive impact under both the ‘With Policy’ and ‘Without Policy’ scenarios for socio-economically disadvantaged groups.